MEXICO HEDGES ON HONDURAN ELECTIONS

UNCLAS MEXICO 003387 SENSITIVE SIPDIS WHA/MEX, WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PINR MX HO SUBJECT: MEXICO HEDGES ON HONDURAN ELECTIONS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The GOM has generally preferred to react to events to Honduras as part of the larger voice of regional organizations such as the Organization of American States or the Rio Group. At another such gathering of Latin leaders, the November 30 Iboamerican Summit, surrounded by counterparts from opposing camps on the recent elections in Honduras, President Calderon attempted to walk a careful line between the two sides. He declined to outright reject the elections as had Brazil, but rather expressed concern about whether the elections were free and fair and pressed for compliance with the conditions of the San Jose Agreement, including the short-term reinstatement of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. Mexican Foreign Ministry officials hedged a bit more privately recognizing the elections as a "factor that merits consideration" as discussions over Honduras move ahead. We should continue to explain to Mexico our views on Honduras but not expect it to assume a strong leadership role given its desire not to clash with some Latin American neighbors more firmly aligned with Zelaya. End Summary. Elections Not Enough -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Before the November 29 elections, President Calderon cautiously told Mexican daily "El Universal" that "he would wait for certain restoration of Honduran constitutionality before recognizing a President-elect." During the November 30 Iboamerican Summit in Portugal, President Calderon stressed that celebrating free elections would not be sufficient to reestablish constitutional order in Honduras; the international community must also see through the rest of the steps of the San Jose Accord. This would include President Zelaya's short-term reinstatement until the January inauguration of the new President-elect. President Calderon did not officially recognize President-elect Lobo. He further described the absence of international observers in the elections as "disgraceful." (Note. The Embassy later pointed out to the Foreign Ministry that international monitors did, in fact, observe the election, and that Mexico had declined to send observers. End Note.) SRE Offers More, Measured Nuance -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Foreign Ministry's (SRE) Deputy Director General for South American Affairs, Victor Arriaga, acknowledged that Mexico's presidency of the Rio Group largely complicated its ability to take a definitive position on Honduras, including the recent elections. Mexico viewed the elections as insufficient. It remained committed to full reinstatement of constitutional rule and full compliance with the San Jose Accords including allowing Zelaya to take office until January. At the same time, Arriaga described the elections as a factor that merited serious consideration by the international community in discussing a resolution to the crisis there given the peaceful nature that defined them and the significant turnout. ¶4. (SBU) Comment. Mexico's hedged approach on Honduras is very much reflective of the caution that often defines its overarching foreign policy. Mexico would like to be perceived as a leader but is very averse to alienating either the U.S. or key Latin Americans on important issues. In this instance, Brazil and the U.S. are lined up on two different sides when it comes to assessing the contribution the recent elections make to a solution in Honduras. Calderon clearly wants to avoid alienating either camp. Instead, without rejecting the elections, Calderon described them as insufficient and repeated the mantra of respect for the constitutional order and compliance with the San Jose Accords. Mexico hopes the upcoming Honduran congressional debate on the elections will further advance a resolution to the crisis in Honduras. In the meantime, it is likely Mexico will continue seek to take a careful approach on debates over controversial factors such as the recent elections. End Comment. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / PASCUAL