FINAL COUNTDOWN TO MEXICO'S JULY 5 LEGISLATIVE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 001895 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX SUBJECT: FINAL COUNTDOWN TO MEXICO'S JULY 5 LEGISLATIVE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. With the official campaign period ending on July 1, the parties made a final push this weekend in an attempt to provide candidates with a last minute boost just a week before the vote. PAN and PRI leaders have been aggressively courting voters with some success, while the PRD appears to be struggling to hold on to roughly 16 percent of the vote. The PAN and PRI sent their heavy-hitters on whistlestop tours and also took swipes at each other through IFE complaints. While the race tightened considerably over the past several months, the PRI appears to be holding its modest lead over the PAN (four to seven points, depending on the poll),but with expected high abstention rate and encouragement by some civic groups that voters cast a null vote, predicting outcomes remains difficult. End Summary. Final Polls Released -------------- ¶2. (U) On June 30, reputable polling firm Consulta Mitofsky released on its last pre-election poll, conducted June 25-28, indicating that in the elections for federal deputies, 34.1 percent of likely voters would choose the Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI),29.4 percent the National Action Party (PAN),and 13.4 percent the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD). The margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percent. If these numbers hold through the weekend, the PRI will end up as the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies, but will not enjoy the absolute majority it was seeking earlier this year. A CNN compilation of polls -- which included May and June results from Reforma, GCE, Mitofsky, GEA-ISA, and Maria de las Heras -- puts the PRI at 37.22 percent, the PAN at 33.4 percent, and the PRD at 16.7 percent for voter preference in the federal elections. ¶3. (U) Since the start of the campaign, the PRI has consistently maintained a lead over the PAN that falls outside the statistical margin of error of most reputable polls. The race has tightened considerably over the past several months, however. With only a few percentage points between the closest competitors, an expected high abstention rate -- the Federal Electoral Council (IFE) suspects abstention rates will easily top 60 percent -- and the null vote wild card, it is difficult to predict with any degree of certainty the specific outcome of the vote. Most analysts nevertheless speculate that a 4-7 point spread between the PAN and PRI, with the PRD trailing far behind, is the most likely result on voting day. ¶4. (SBU) Also notable, the Mitofsky survey indicates that Convergencia, Nueva Alianza (PANAL),and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) are all at risk of coming up short of the 2 percent popular vote requirement necessary to maintain their registration, which would result in the official dissolution of their party at the federal level ) and the withdrawal of public funding. Conversely, the Worker's Party (PT) seems to have benefited from the PRD's public disputes and is now just trailing the Green Party with some 5 percent. Parties Complete Campaigns With a Flourish -------------- ¶5. (U) With the official campaign period ending on July 1, all parties have attempted to provide their candidates with a last minute boost. PAN and PRI leadership was most visible across the country, with PAN President German Martinez, PRI President Beatriz Paredes, and Mexico State Governor Enrique Pena Nieto particularly active in rallying voters. Closing Mexico City campaigns, Martinez predicted that the PAN will win an "avalanche" of votes in the Federal District, as well as in Queretero and San Luis Potosi, both of which will select new governors on Sunday. Nevertheless, he did admit to an uphill battle in Nuevo Leon -- which has been hotly contested between the PAN and the PRI -- and Sonora, and asked supporters for a final drive in those campaigns. He also took the opportunity to blast PRI Governor of Sonora State, Eduardo Bours, for his poor handling of the daycare fire earlier this month. Martinez also disparaged estranged PRD leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) for intense MEXICO 00001895 002 OF 004 inter-party conflict in a Mexico City borough mayoral race sparked by his decision to call on supporters to vote for the PT candidate instead of for the PRD competitor. ¶6. (C) The PAN is also hoping federal government security operations, most recently the arrest of 94 police officers and public security officials in Hidalgo (a PRI stronghold), will boost its fortunes. The officials were detained by federal agents on suspicion of collaborating with the Zetas, the enforcement wing of the Gulf Cartel. Similar raids in Nuevo Leon and Michoacan sparked allegations from the government's opponents that the Calderon administration was using security issues to galvanize voters in PAN's favor. The PRI has not yet responded to the Hidalgo raids, probably in fear that opening debate on the topic so soon before the elections could damage the party's prospects in the state. Pena Nieto Stumps for PRI -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In its final days of campaigning the PRI is relying heavily on its youthful Mexico State Governor Enrique Pena Nieto to promote a fresher, newer face of the party, which has been portrayed in opposing campaign ads as a dinosaur sneaking off with a bag of money. Despite calls from the PAN for Pena Nieto to desist campaign activities -- electoral laws prohibit elected officials from using public resources and television airtime to campaign on behalf of their party -- the governor has made recent visits to Nuevo Leon, Jalisco, and San Luis Potosi in support of the PRI. Looking to improve the party's past reputation for corruption and stagnation, Pena Nieto has accentuated the PRI's "new face and attitude," and emphasized its attention to youth. In a rather unusual display of solidarity, Beatriz Paredes publicly complimented Pena Nieto as a first rate governor and a bulwark for the party as it prepares for the 2012 presidential election. ¶8. (C) The PRD, on the other hand, is still so preoccupied with its fratricidal internal struggles that there is little it can do to recover during the final days of campaigning. With the Iztapalapa candidate debacle (septel to follow),PRD President Jesus Ortega,s accusations against Lopez Obrador and threats to expel him from the party, and AMLO himself slamming the PRD for not supporting Mexican democracy, the PRD is likely to be Sunday's big loser. IFE Receives Rash of Complaints -------------- ¶9. (C) Parties have been attacking their opponents for violations of electoral regulations and are targeting top party leaders. PAN and PRI are trading charges over a variety of issues including improper use of the electoral registry, illegal campaigning by sitting governors and improper use of public resources and television airtime by public officials. In what probably is a sign of many fines to come, the IFE penalized Mexico's largest media company, Televisa, 13 million pesos (about 990,000 USD at the current exchange rate) for running ads favoring the Green Party. IFE counselor Francisco Guerrero and most analysts say that parties are knowingly and willfully breaking election campaign regulations, since the electoral authority generally takes an extended period of time to make rulings on complaints and collect penalties, so parties are willing to take a hit later for electoral advantage up front. Parties Debate...Anti-climatically -------------- ¶10. (SBU) After protracted negotiations over staging, the three major party leaders, German Martinez (PAN, Beatriz Paredes (PRI) and Jesus Ortega (PRD) finally came together on June 26 for what will be their only debate this election cycle. They discussed economic and security issues during the televised event, with both Paredes and Ortega criticizing the PAN for what they claim has been a poor handling of the economic crisis and for using security concerns for electoral gains. Martinez, meanwhile, vigorously defended the administration, and all three promised to work across party lines in the new Congress to confront the economic crisis, MEXICO 00001895 003 OF 004 drastically reduce the number of legislators in the Chamber, promote policy to allow reelection, and reduce public expenditure for political parties. The Null Vote, the Notary, and Alejandro Marti -------------- - ¶11. (C) The campaign for voters to cast blank ballots on voting day continues to receive considerable coverage in press, but it is unclear what kinds of real impact it will have on voting day. IFE Director for Electoral Studies Carlos Navarro told Emboffs on June 26 that Mexico has never before seen a concerted campaign for a "voto en blanco" and that it is difficult to judge whether it will be successful (and whether the intensive media coverage of the campaign reflects its public support or simply the ire of media smarting from the new electoral reform measures). ¶12. (C) A similar note of public discontent has been sounded by Alejandro Marti, businessman and outspoken advocate for security reform in Mexico. Along with several key civil society groups, Marti (whose son was murdered by kidnappers last summer) has called on Mexicans to vote only for candidates who formally pledge to comply with their campaign proposals. "My Vote for Your Promise," also backed by Mexico United Against Crime, the Citizen Council for Public Security, and Marti's own Observation System for Citizen Security, also calls for the elimination of plurinomial congressional seats, which are not directly elected, the establishment of a plebiscite, referendum, and popular initiative, as well as the possibility for consecutive reelection of congressmen, mayors, and local delegates. The organizations hope to tap into the same well of discontent with Mexico's politicians the null vote movement does. However, both campaigns appear to be somewhat elitist movements, and the subjects of debate among the Mexican intelligentsia and political class. It is unclear whether they will gain serious traction with the average Mexican voter. Incidents of Violence Isolated and Few -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Analysts, IFE representatives and party activists have told Poloffs there is little fear of significant violence on election day. With the exception of a few dramatic incidents, most recently the attack on a PAN candidate for federal deputy in Sonora that left two dead, the campaign period has not been marked by bloodshed. Nevertheless, IFE has identified areas of higher risk and has said that it will be on a state of alert and in constant communication with municipal, state, and federal authorities on July 5 in order to counter any threat to the voting process. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) Less than a week before the vote, the PRI still appears well-positioned to make gains in the Chamber of Deputies, but the PAN trails close behind and both parties are pushing hard at the eleventh hour. The PRD probably would be lucky to win 14 to 16 percent of the vote as bitter internal rivalries alienate voters and prevent the party from running a unified, effective campaign. The outcome on the vote will impact the parties' behavior in Congress -- a strengthened PRI may lead to more assertive legislative behavior by the party vis-a-vis the Calderon administration -- but the next three year congressional period probably will be characterized by some cooperation between the two rivals in the first year, then a gradual unraveling as the 2012 presidential vote nears. Perhaps more than anything, this electoral season already has driven politicians to reconsider electoral laws. A senior PAN Senator told PolCouns that he is already working on a commission to re-craft the current regulations. End Comment. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / MEXICO 00001895 004 OF 004 FEELEY