PAN NARROWS GAP BUT STILL TRAILS PRI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 001630 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2028 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MX SUBJECT: PAN NARROWS GAP BUT STILL TRAILS PRI Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason : 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (U) Summary. Mexico's governing National Action Party (PAN) has long trailed the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in polls tracking voters' preferences for the upcoming July 5 mid-term elections. More recently, though, polls have shown PAN narrowing the gap to 3-4 points with PAN's own internal poll even showing it on top by a point. Some experts attribute PAN's gains to a sharpened attack on the "PRI,s legacy of corruption" and attempts to tie the PAN more closely to President Calderon who continues to poll highly. Concerns about the economy and voter apathy, however, don't necessary bode well for the PAN. While the PAN will likely loss its plurality to PRI, the switch should not dramatically change legislative dynamics. While several PAN candidates are vying to be the Party's new leader in the Chamber of Deputies as a means of staking a claim to the party's candidacy for president, PAN has not proven in a rush to identify its lead candidate for the 2012 presidential election. End Summary. PRI Sells its Experience to Voters ¶2. (U) In the run-up to the July 5 mid-term elections, some polls as recent as three months ago had ceded PRI an almost double digit lead over PAN. In the face of a deepening economic crisis and disquiet over drug-related violence, PRI cast itself as the party of experience and stability with polls suggesting the message was producing a favorable effect on its numbers. The underlying principle behind the ads was that PAN brought little experience to governance and was floundering in the face of serious economic and security challenges. PRI with its long record of governance could be counted on to restore to stability. PAN Goes &Negative8 ¶3. (SBU) Over the last month, however, PAN has effectively turned the tables on the PRI by going "negative" and blaming many of Mexico's problems, particularly when it comes to crime, corruption, and insecurity on the PRI's legacy of governance and its alleged tolerance of and collaboration with organized crime. Mexico's 2007 electoral reform legislation strictly prohibits "negative" campaigning. However, to the extent Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) tends to focus its attention on official political advertisements, PAN has been able to skirt this prohibition by relying primarily on critical statements by party leaders to go dirty. PAN President German Martinez, in particular, has been out in front, foisting blame on PRI for Mexico's security problems. Lauding President Calderon's own efforts to launch a frontal attack on organized crime in Mexico, Martinez has repeatedly lambasted PRI for its legacy of corruption while it held power over 71 years. For its part, PRI has proven itself very defensive in responding to attacks. Meanwhile attention grabbing exposes by former PRI insiders bespeaking the kind of corrupt deals forged in the past by PRI governments have only served to reinforce PRI's reputation for blatant corruption. ...And Clings to the President ¶4. (SBU) PAN has also sought to improve its stakes by tying itself more closely to President Calderon. Mexico's political parties score low marks in surveys polling Mexican views of a variety of different public institutions -- generally only outscoring the police which traditionally rank at the bottom. Mexicans, however, tend to regard the president as synonymous with Mexico itself. As such, a vote for the president, in the eyes of some, can almost be construed as an act of patriotism. In point of fact, President Calderon continues to poll high numbers ) most recently in the upper 60s ) and PAN's efforts to tie itself to the president seem to have helped its own polling numbers. Again, in this instance, PRI appears to have miscalculated in its response. Its direct attacks on the President have been construed as attacks on the country, thus hurting PRI's image. Who's Going to Vote Anyway? ¶5. (SBU) To date, the campaigns have been relatively subdued. Some observers blame both voter apathy and the 2007 election law. Concern about the economy recently displaced security as a priority for Mexicans. However, surveys suggest voters invest little confidence in political parties to rise above parochial interests and develop a comprehensive plan to attack these problems. The media has also contributed to cynicism about Mexico's political elites and reinforced the perception that the electoral reform was all about strengthening the role of Mexico's principal political parties rather than the democratic process itself. As a result, some officials are worried voter turnout may actually dip below 40 percent ) a threshold many believe would reflect quite poorly on Mexico's entire political class. Election Law Puts Damper on Campaigns ¶6. (SBU) Of course, Mexico's election law has also contributed to the lackluster campaign. The law cut back the MEXICO 00001630 002 OF 003 pre-election campaign period to two months, prohibited private funding and reduced public funding for campaigns, and prohibited negative campaigning. Scheduled to kick off in early May, the campaign season got off to a slow start given the country was still in the midst of a "shut-down" mode over widespread concerns about the flu outbreak. Even as that concern has receded, political rallies ) at least in Mexico City ) have not drawn huge numbers. Meanwhile, the parties have largely confined themselves to short, relatively dull ads that center on very simple themes. PRD has touted its commitment to do more to address concerns about wider access to medical services and create economic opportunity; PRI, as noted prior, pitches its experience as the answer to the economic crisis and security concerns. PAN's ads come off a bit more substantive championing the president's commitment to combating organized crime and taking a subtle jab at "prior" governments as the reason for Mexico's crime problem. None, however, speaks to policy prescriptions, preferring instead to latch on to hollow slogans. Ironically, the lack of enthusiasm over this election -- in part generated by the election reform itself -- could prompt a whole new series of electoral reforms after the election. The First Among Equals? ¶7. (C) Three PAN candidates are actively lobbying to be the party's coordinator in the House of Deputies. Party President German Martinez has the authority to make the selection but will no doubt look to the president for guidance. -- Francisco Ramirez Acuna served as Calderon's first Secretary of Government. He is reputed to be rather abrasive and hot-tempered. Calderon asked him step down in early 2008 but he appears to have made amends with the President since then. -- Cesar Nava gave up his position as Calderon's private secretary under less than ideal terms. His relations with Calderon since have appeared somewhat strained. He will likely win election as the district for which is vying is predominantly PAN. However, some critics complain he is spending disproportionately more time lobbying for the position of PAN coordinator than representative of his own district. -- Josefina Vazquez Mota was Calderon's Secretary of Education before she was reportedly asked to step down several months ago in favor of seeking a seat in the Chamber of Deputies. She does not hail from a long lineage of PAN members which places her at a disadvantage in some of the party's more traditional circles. However, she has proven a charismatic and effective campaigner with some party insiders suggesting she is favored by the President as his top choice for the position of party coordinator. PAN Slow Out of the Presidential Blocks ¶8. (C) Many look to the upcoming mid-term elections as a bellwether for the 2012 presidential election. Serious candidates for PRI and PRD have already emerged. Meanwhile, PAN has proven less determined to identify candidates this far out. All three above-named individuals have been mentioned as potential presidential candidates. The person selected as party coordinator could get a leg on the competition if he or she is viewed as particularly effective rallying support for the president's agenda in Congress. Traditionally, however, the Chamber of Deputies has not proven the most ideal launching pad for a presidential campaign. Separately, Fernandez Gomez Mont, named Calderon's Secretary of Government in November 2008, has drawn some attention as a possible candidate. He comes from a family steeped in PAN history, enjoys a long relationship with Calderon, and has scored points over recent months as an official who speaks with authority on key issues including security. Calderon's Secretary of Social Development (SEDESOL),Ernesto Cordero Arroyo, and his Secretary of Education, Alonso Lujambro Irazbul, are also considering a run for the presidency though both have their drawbacks. The former reportedly lacks the traditional charisma of a strong presidential hopeful and the latter is not even a member of the PAN yet. What Difference Does it Make Anyway? ¶9. (SBU) Most polls show PRI displacing PAN as the top party in the House of Deputies but it is unlikely it will gain a majority. Symbolically, PRI will want to attach much import to the election results suggesting they bode well for the 2012 elections. It is not clear, however, whether these results will significantly impact the dynamics in Congress in terms of moving legislation. Since PAN did not enjoy a majority in the House of Deputies over the last session it typically had to negotiate compromises with PRI to secure passage of legislation. PAN may be a little more beholden to PRI and its priorities in terms of the legislative agenda over the coming years. Nevertheless, PRI, ultimately, will also need the support of other parties to make things happen. What remains to be seen is if PRI will shift to the left, prompting it to favor alliances with the PRD over PRI in MEXICO 00001630 003 OF 003 pushing its agenda. ¶10. (C) Comment. PAN has narrowed PRI's lead in polls but still expects to lose its plurality in the House of Deputies. While this is the cause of some concern it is not a cause for panic. Incumbent parties tend to be disadvantaged in mid-term elections and it comes as no surprise this is the case this year given the economic downturn. Meanwhile, PAN has taken some solace in observing that PRI remains vulnerable based on its historical legacy for corruption. No doubt, PAN will start to reflect more seriously on potential presidential candidates after the July election. However, it also does not want to be rushed. The sooner a party identifies its candidate the sooner the opposition starts forming its plan of attack in much the same way PAN officials have signaled they are already doing with PRI and PAN candidates. The performance of Vazquez Mota ) if selected as PAN's Coordinator in the House of Deputies ) and Gomez Mont as Secretary of Government should help in determining if either might emerge as a viable candidate. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / WILLIARD