SITREP 15 (FINAL) - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MEXICO 001277

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS;
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR
MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR
CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DPPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 15 (FINAL) - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO
CITY

REF: MEXICO 1269 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) SUMMARY
--------------

Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 8 press
conference that the number of confirmed cases now stands at
1319 including 45 fatalities.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Mexican Ambassador to the United
Nations, Alfonso de Alba said that Mexico will propose
discussing unjustified discriminatory measures against
Mexicans implemented by certain countries in the next World
Health Assembly on May 18.


MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard
reported a 100% reactivation of activities May 8.



3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS
-------------- --------------

No new information to report.


4. (SBU) STATISTICS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a
May 8 press conference that the number of confirmed cases now
stands at 1319 including 45 fatalities. In total, the 1,364
confirmed cases of flu, H1N1 represent 29.4% of the tested
samples. Cordova said that since April 26 there has been a
decrease in new cases.



5. (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES
--------------

No new information to report.



6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES
--------------

No new information to report.



7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES
--------------

CA updated Mexico's Travel Alert May 7, to include GOM
instructions on business and public venue closures, as well
as Mission Mexico consular services. The new version still
recommends against non-essential travel to Mexico, in keeping
with current CDC guidance. Consular is expecting a
return-to-normal work day on Monday, May 11.



8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES
--------------

CIUDAD JUAREZ: The Chihuahua State Secretary of Health and
the El Paso Health Department report that the total number of
confirmed cases of H1N1 virus in Chihuahua and El Paso
remains unchanged at 4 and 7 respectively. The El Paso
Health Department confirmed on May 8 that it had identified
19 new possible cases of H1N1 influenza, bringing the total
of possible cases in El Paso to 33. The new cases were from
children ranging in age from 2 to 17. Epidemiologists in El

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Paso told Post that the rise in possible cases should not be
a cause for alarm, and is most likely due to increased
surveillance and detection. Health authorities in El Paso
and Chihuahua reiterated to Post that they were confident
that the spread of the virus will continue its downward
trajectory.

As people return to work in Juarez, anxiety over the H1N1
virus appears to be falling. Local media reported that H1N1
inquiries to the city's flu hotline dropped from an average
of 150 calls a day from May 1-4 to only 7 calls on May 5.
Even as the public's concern over the flu virus wanes,
military personnel delivered medical supplies to two
hospitals in Juarez donated by the Chinese government.
According to the spokesman for the Joint Operation Chihuahua,
the supplies arrived to Juarez by way of Mexico's Secretary
of Defense. The Chinese donation included seasonal flu
vaccines, latex gloves and respiratory masks. Some
Chihuahuans remain visibly displeased with the Chinese
government for its decision to detain and quarantine Mexican
nationals. There were several non-violent protests reported
throughout the state against business establishments owned by
Mexicans of Chinese descent.

On May 8, consular services continued to slowly return to
normal. The non-immigrant visa section interviewed
approximately 250 applicants and the immigrant visa section
processed 25 waiver cases. American citizen services are
operating normally.


GUADALAJARA: Following the announcement of 15 cases May 7,
the authorities have now raised the total of confirmed H1N1
cases in the state of Jalisco to 26. Of these, 21 are in the
Guadalajara metropolitan area, and five are in provincial
towns in the eastern part of the state. There are no
reported cases in Puerto Vallarta. The authorities are
continuing to monitor 104 patients with flu-like symptoms
statewide as possible H1N1 cases. There have been no
reported H1N1 influenza deaths in Jalisco. Nevertheless, the
new disclosures have prompted some people to question whether
the authorities may have deliberately dragged their feet in
confirming the presence of the H1N1 virus in Jalisco.
Governor Emilio Gonzalez Marquez issued a decree late Friday
requiring schools to remain closed until May 18, in view of
the rise in H1N1 cases.

The Director of the American School Foundation of Guadalajara
(ASFG) ) the school attended by the majority of Consulate
children - announced that a student had tested positive for
H1N1 influenza. This student has fully recovered, but high
school classes that had resumed yesterday were canceled today
as a precaution. The school will be completely disinfected
over the weekend, and plans to reopen on May 11 for all
students unless state health authorities direct otherwise.
ASFG, like all other schools in Jalisco, has been closed
since April 28.

ACS Guadalajara and the Consular Agency in Puerto Vallarta
reported handling normal caseloads today. The number of
inquiries from American citizens regarding the influenza
situation is much lower now than last week.


HERMOSILLO: The State of Sinaloa reports no change in the
H1N1 situation there ) still no laboratory confirmed cases
in the state.

The Secretary of Health for Sonora today reported four
additional laboratory confirmed cases of H1N1 in Sonora since
5-6-09. All victims are receiving treatment and recovering
well. Sonora is launching a public information campaign
focused on the schools and public places that include flyers

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and posters about basic hygiene and steps to take if flu
symptoms are present.


MATAMOROS: No new information to report.

MERIDA: The Governor of Quintana Roo announced May 7 that 16
hotels (with 10,000 rooms) are now closed temporarily. The
closures will most likely last until June 15. As a result,
approximately 10,000 employees have been discharged. The
Governor explained that the State has seen an 85 percent drop
in international tourism and a 40 percent drop in national
tourism. Hotel occupancy in Cancun remains near 20 percent
and today, the airport reports 45 canceled flights, the
majority of which are international. 188 flights are
operating at the Cancun Airport with very few arriving
passengers.
In Yucatan, hotel occupancy remains around 20 percent and
local contacts are preparing for a difficult summer. Some
business leaders are beginning to report that many of the
effects are more directly related to the economy than to the
influenza outbreak.

MONTERREY: The number of H1N1 flu cases in the consular
district has stabilized, but despite government appeals to
the public to keep up their guard, most people are taking
fewer measures to protect against the H1N1 flu. State
governments continue to clean schools. The Governor of San
Luis Potosi warned that people need to change their health
habits because the flu is here to stay. However, most people
feel relief and act with the expectation that the H1N1 flu is
behind them. For example, in the IMSS hospital and state
health office in Monterrey people were not using face masks
and were crowding together. Similarly, at the Monterrey city
hall, there was an information booth about H1N1 flu, but no
one used face masks in a crowded elevator and people greeted
each other normally during meetings. Meanwhile, business
leaders are claiming large losses due to the shutdown May
1-5, and they hope to recoup some losses from the government.


Nuevo Leon high schools and universities opened on May 7.
All of the students were checked for H1N1 flu, and several
were sent home. However, there were news reports that several
Nuevo Leon high schools and universities lacked sanitary
measures such as anti-bacterial hand wash and paper towels.

In addition to San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon will soon have a
laboratory capable of testing 25-30 cases for H1N1 flu. The
Secretary of Health is working with three local universities.
These additional medical facilities addresses one of the
most troubling parts of Mexico's response, the long delays in
confirming cases as H1N1 flu.

There are no suspected cases of H1N1 flu among FSO or LES
staff or their dependents. In both ACS and NIV, fewer
clients appeared than on normal days before the shutdown.
More than 1, 695 H2 interviews are scheduled May 12-15,
mainly H2B's There are still plenty of available H2 slots
open next week.


NOGALES: Post has resumed public operations and will return
to full operations Monday, May 11.


NUEVO LAREDO: The public is calm and many people continue to
wear face masks but in decreasing numbers. Public awareness
remains high regarding the possibility of contacting H1N1 but
public anxiety seems to be decreasing. There are still no
confirmed cases of H1N1 in Nuevo Laredo. However, according
to the local newspaper in Nuevo Laredo, a high school student
in Laredo, Texas is suspected of having H1N1 and is currently

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waiting for results. The subject was vacationing in Houston
and began to feel sick and demonstrated H1N1 virus symptoms.
The head of public health in Laredo, Texas mentioned the
subject is recovering very fast and that he will be able to
go back to school on Monday when classes start again. The
Laredo public health director also mentioned there are 59
possible cases in Laredo. Out of the 59 cases, 11 were
hospitalized and seven were already released from the
hospital. The suspect cases are from persons between the ages
of 8 months and 60 years of age, however none of them is
severely ill.

TIJUANA: No new cases have been identified in Baja
California nor in Baja California Sur, which remains free of
any confirmed H1N1 cases. The results of 13 samples sent
between April 25-27 have not yet been received. A total of
493 samples were sent. The state health secretary announced
late yesterday that in two days Baja would have a lab capable
of testing the samples and would no longer need to send them
to Mexico City. Schools that re-opened yesterday reported a
95% attendance among students and faculty. Border crossings
are normal.




9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS
-------------- --------------

On May 8, the Mexican media were almost back to &business as
usual.8 Only two newspapers, El Sol de Mexico and La Cronica
had reports of the A H1N1 influenza outbreak as their feature
stories ) most newspapers concentrated on grim economic news
from the Finance Secretariat. Coverage of the H1N1 flu
focused mostly on efforts to sanitize schools for the massive
return to class on May 11. The Secretary of Public Education
confirmed that classes are scheduled to restart on Monday,
and added that the participation of families and school
authorities will be vital to keep sick children at home.

Reports also highlight that the swine industry in Mexico has
suffered multi-million dollar losses as sales have dropped
close to 70%. The strength of the North American community
was once again reported positively. &Mexico, the U.S. and
Canada have joined forces to demand their trading partners
not to restrict sales of pork and swine products.8 On this
line, there were also abundant reports of the Appreciation
ceremony at Mexico's Foreign Ministry where the
Undersecretary for North American Affairs Carlos Rico stated
that the fact that the U.S.-Mexico border remained open
during the outbreak shows that &with joint responsibility
both countries can solve the gravest of circumstances.8
Reports also mentioned the WHO warning that if the H1N1
influenza turned into a pandemic, one third of the world
population could become infected.




10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

MERIDA: Several hotels in Quintana Roo decided to shutdown
given the low occupancy rate. Secretary of Tourism, Rodolfo
Elizondo, said that these hotels are owned by foreign
investors, mainly from Spain. The temporary closure of these
hotels will leave 19,000 people without a job. In order to
protect the existing 2.2 million jobs in the sector, Elizondo
will meet today with Secretary of Labor Lozano to develop a
special program for the sector. The hotel occupancy rate has
fallen from between 60 and 80% to 10 and 15%. Elizondo noted
that the measures announced by Carstens this week will not be
enough to help the sector. He pledged to lobby for more
fiscal incentives for the sector.


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MONTERREY: Several business leaders estimated that companies
suffered substantial losses from the May 1-5 closures.
Guillermo Dillon of the large Nuevo Leon employers
association Caintra estimated that all businesses, including
manufacturing, tourism and services, had lost 6 billion
pesos. In Zacatecas, the head of the hotel association said
that hotel occupancy was only 6.4% (against a normal 30%),
making it hard for hotels to pay expenses such as salaries,
water, and other utilities. Zacatecas (just like Nuevo
Leon),reported that all weddings, conventions and other
events had been canceled. One bright note is that common
crime fell 30% in San Luis Potosi during the H1N1 flu crisis.

TIJUANA: The Baja labor office (STPS) responded to inquiries
from businesses which had to close as to whether they needed
to pay their employees for those days with a resounding
&yes.8 He stated that, even though it was not so stated in
the presidential decree, the law (Article 18 of the Labor
Law) gives the benefit of the doubt to the worker.



11. (SBU) TRANSPORTATION
--------------

Mexicana's CEO called the Embassy to request the CDC repeal
its Mexico travel warning. Mexicana's domestic volume is
rebounding after the weak holiday weekend, but international
travel continues to fall. Daily flights to Los Angeles from
across the Mexicana network, normally 25, numbered 10 on 8
May. System wide, the company canceled 140 of 360 scheduled
flights on 7 May. Aside from their request for USG action,
the company echoed many carriers in asking the GOM do more to
help the industry. Thomas Cook, one of several package tour
companies that fill flights to Mexico for European carriers,
announced it would resume Mexico travel on 19 May. Ecuador
announced it would end its suspension of air traffic from
Mexico. Argentina, which agreed to reopen the Mexico
City-Buenos Aires route on 4 May, continued to drag its feet
on resumption of service.


12. (U) POLITICAL IMPACT
--------------

The slumping economy and the bloody drug war had been Mexican
voters, top worries ahead of midterm elections in July.
However the AH1N1 virus has gained top billing in the
campaign. Pollsters, who had found President Calderon's
governing National Action Party lagging before the flu bug
hit, are scrambling to see how the influenza outbreak may
have changed the dynamics of the election season. Did Mr.
Calderon's government overreact? Or did it skillfully manage
the crisis and keep deaths down? In a natural disaster, the
ruling party is hurt with a slow or corrupt response.
However, no government has ever seen anything like this
current outbreak. The candidates vying for local, state and
federal positions on July 5 are required to take precautions,
including using antibacterial hand gel liberally, to avoid
spreading the influenza virus. Large political rallies of
more than 40 people are discouraged and closed-door strategy
sessions should allow a generous 7.2 feet between every
attendee. With big rallies ruled out, campaigns are pouring
more money into virtual outreach through the Internet and
even text messages. And while candidates continue to espouse
proposals to revive the economy and increase security, they
are clearly trying to use the health crisis to their
advantage. Hand gels and face masks have become the new free
items handed out by office seekers, trumping T-shirts and
baseball ats. And in some cases, candidates have even
stamped the masks with their names and party logos, turning
voters, faces into mobile campaign billboards.



13. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE

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--------------

CDC and the Embassy are working together to develop an action
plan to address the weaknesses in Mexico's health program and
better prepare for future heath emergencies.
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
BASSETT