SITREP 15 (FINAL) - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MEXICO 001277 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS; STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DPPPC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX SUBJECT: SITREP 15 (FINAL) - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY REF: MEXICO 1269 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) SUMMARY -------------- Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 8 press conference that the number of confirmed cases now stands at 1319 including 45 fatalities. ¶2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS -------------- FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Mexican Ambassador to the United Nations, Alfonso de Alba said that Mexico will propose discussing unjustified discriminatory measures against Mexicans implemented by certain countries in the next World Health Assembly on May 18. MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard reported a 100% reactivation of activities May 8. ¶3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS -------------- -------------- No new information to report. ¶4. (SBU) STATISTICS -------------- FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 8 press conference that the number of confirmed cases now stands at 1319 including 45 fatalities. In total, the 1,364 confirmed cases of flu, H1N1 represent 29.4% of the tested samples. Cordova said that since April 26 there has been a decrease in new cases. ¶5. (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES -------------- No new information to report. ¶6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES -------------- No new information to report. ¶7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES -------------- CA updated Mexico's Travel Alert May 7, to include GOM instructions on business and public venue closures, as well as Mission Mexico consular services. The new version still recommends against non-essential travel to Mexico, in keeping with current CDC guidance. Consular is expecting a return-to-normal work day on Monday, May 11. ¶8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES -------------- CIUDAD JUAREZ: The Chihuahua State Secretary of Health and the El Paso Health Department report that the total number of confirmed cases of H1N1 virus in Chihuahua and El Paso remains unchanged at 4 and 7 respectively. The El Paso Health Department confirmed on May 8 that it had identified 19 new possible cases of H1N1 influenza, bringing the total of possible cases in El Paso to 33. The new cases were from children ranging in age from 2 to 17. Epidemiologists in El MEXICO 00001277 002 OF 006 Paso told Post that the rise in possible cases should not be a cause for alarm, and is most likely due to increased surveillance and detection. Health authorities in El Paso and Chihuahua reiterated to Post that they were confident that the spread of the virus will continue its downward trajectory. As people return to work in Juarez, anxiety over the H1N1 virus appears to be falling. Local media reported that H1N1 inquiries to the city's flu hotline dropped from an average of 150 calls a day from May 1-4 to only 7 calls on May 5. Even as the public's concern over the flu virus wanes, military personnel delivered medical supplies to two hospitals in Juarez donated by the Chinese government. According to the spokesman for the Joint Operation Chihuahua, the supplies arrived to Juarez by way of Mexico's Secretary of Defense. The Chinese donation included seasonal flu vaccines, latex gloves and respiratory masks. Some Chihuahuans remain visibly displeased with the Chinese government for its decision to detain and quarantine Mexican nationals. There were several non-violent protests reported throughout the state against business establishments owned by Mexicans of Chinese descent. On May 8, consular services continued to slowly return to normal. The non-immigrant visa section interviewed approximately 250 applicants and the immigrant visa section processed 25 waiver cases. American citizen services are operating normally. GUADALAJARA: Following the announcement of 15 cases May 7, the authorities have now raised the total of confirmed H1N1 cases in the state of Jalisco to 26. Of these, 21 are in the Guadalajara metropolitan area, and five are in provincial towns in the eastern part of the state. There are no reported cases in Puerto Vallarta. The authorities are continuing to monitor 104 patients with flu-like symptoms statewide as possible H1N1 cases. There have been no reported H1N1 influenza deaths in Jalisco. Nevertheless, the new disclosures have prompted some people to question whether the authorities may have deliberately dragged their feet in confirming the presence of the H1N1 virus in Jalisco. Governor Emilio Gonzalez Marquez issued a decree late Friday requiring schools to remain closed until May 18, in view of the rise in H1N1 cases. The Director of the American School Foundation of Guadalajara (ASFG) ) the school attended by the majority of Consulate children - announced that a student had tested positive for H1N1 influenza. This student has fully recovered, but high school classes that had resumed yesterday were canceled today as a precaution. The school will be completely disinfected over the weekend, and plans to reopen on May 11 for all students unless state health authorities direct otherwise. ASFG, like all other schools in Jalisco, has been closed since April 28. ACS Guadalajara and the Consular Agency in Puerto Vallarta reported handling normal caseloads today. The number of inquiries from American citizens regarding the influenza situation is much lower now than last week. HERMOSILLO: The State of Sinaloa reports no change in the H1N1 situation there ) still no laboratory confirmed cases in the state. The Secretary of Health for Sonora today reported four additional laboratory confirmed cases of H1N1 in Sonora since 5-6-09. All victims are receiving treatment and recovering well. Sonora is launching a public information campaign focused on the schools and public places that include flyers MEXICO 00001277 003 OF 006 and posters about basic hygiene and steps to take if flu symptoms are present. MATAMOROS: No new information to report. MERIDA: The Governor of Quintana Roo announced May 7 that 16 hotels (with 10,000 rooms) are now closed temporarily. The closures will most likely last until June 15. As a result, approximately 10,000 employees have been discharged. The Governor explained that the State has seen an 85 percent drop in international tourism and a 40 percent drop in national tourism. Hotel occupancy in Cancun remains near 20 percent and today, the airport reports 45 canceled flights, the majority of which are international. 188 flights are operating at the Cancun Airport with very few arriving passengers. In Yucatan, hotel occupancy remains around 20 percent and local contacts are preparing for a difficult summer. Some business leaders are beginning to report that many of the effects are more directly related to the economy than to the influenza outbreak. MONTERREY: The number of H1N1 flu cases in the consular district has stabilized, but despite government appeals to the public to keep up their guard, most people are taking fewer measures to protect against the H1N1 flu. State governments continue to clean schools. The Governor of San Luis Potosi warned that people need to change their health habits because the flu is here to stay. However, most people feel relief and act with the expectation that the H1N1 flu is behind them. For example, in the IMSS hospital and state health office in Monterrey people were not using face masks and were crowding together. Similarly, at the Monterrey city hall, there was an information booth about H1N1 flu, but no one used face masks in a crowded elevator and people greeted each other normally during meetings. Meanwhile, business leaders are claiming large losses due to the shutdown May 1-5, and they hope to recoup some losses from the government. Nuevo Leon high schools and universities opened on May 7. All of the students were checked for H1N1 flu, and several were sent home. However, there were news reports that several Nuevo Leon high schools and universities lacked sanitary measures such as anti-bacterial hand wash and paper towels. In addition to San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon will soon have a laboratory capable of testing 25-30 cases for H1N1 flu. The Secretary of Health is working with three local universities. These additional medical facilities addresses one of the most troubling parts of Mexico's response, the long delays in confirming cases as H1N1 flu. There are no suspected cases of H1N1 flu among FSO or LES staff or their dependents. In both ACS and NIV, fewer clients appeared than on normal days before the shutdown. More than 1, 695 H2 interviews are scheduled May 12-15, mainly H2B's There are still plenty of available H2 slots open next week. NOGALES: Post has resumed public operations and will return to full operations Monday, May 11. NUEVO LAREDO: The public is calm and many people continue to wear face masks but in decreasing numbers. Public awareness remains high regarding the possibility of contacting H1N1 but public anxiety seems to be decreasing. There are still no confirmed cases of H1N1 in Nuevo Laredo. However, according to the local newspaper in Nuevo Laredo, a high school student in Laredo, Texas is suspected of having H1N1 and is currently MEXICO 00001277 004 OF 006 waiting for results. The subject was vacationing in Houston and began to feel sick and demonstrated H1N1 virus symptoms. The head of public health in Laredo, Texas mentioned the subject is recovering very fast and that he will be able to go back to school on Monday when classes start again. The Laredo public health director also mentioned there are 59 possible cases in Laredo. Out of the 59 cases, 11 were hospitalized and seven were already released from the hospital. The suspect cases are from persons between the ages of 8 months and 60 years of age, however none of them is severely ill. TIJUANA: No new cases have been identified in Baja California nor in Baja California Sur, which remains free of any confirmed H1N1 cases. The results of 13 samples sent between April 25-27 have not yet been received. A total of 493 samples were sent. The state health secretary announced late yesterday that in two days Baja would have a lab capable of testing the samples and would no longer need to send them to Mexico City. Schools that re-opened yesterday reported a 95% attendance among students and faculty. Border crossings are normal. ¶9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS -------------- -------------- On May 8, the Mexican media were almost back to &business as usual.8 Only two newspapers, El Sol de Mexico and La Cronica had reports of the A H1N1 influenza outbreak as their feature stories ) most newspapers concentrated on grim economic news from the Finance Secretariat. Coverage of the H1N1 flu focused mostly on efforts to sanitize schools for the massive return to class on May 11. The Secretary of Public Education confirmed that classes are scheduled to restart on Monday, and added that the participation of families and school authorities will be vital to keep sick children at home. Reports also highlight that the swine industry in Mexico has suffered multi-million dollar losses as sales have dropped close to 70%. The strength of the North American community was once again reported positively. &Mexico, the U.S. and Canada have joined forces to demand their trading partners not to restrict sales of pork and swine products.8 On this line, there were also abundant reports of the Appreciation ceremony at Mexico's Foreign Ministry where the Undersecretary for North American Affairs Carlos Rico stated that the fact that the U.S.-Mexico border remained open during the outbreak shows that &with joint responsibility both countries can solve the gravest of circumstances.8 Reports also mentioned the WHO warning that if the H1N1 influenza turned into a pandemic, one third of the world population could become infected. ¶10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT -------------- MERIDA: Several hotels in Quintana Roo decided to shutdown given the low occupancy rate. Secretary of Tourism, Rodolfo Elizondo, said that these hotels are owned by foreign investors, mainly from Spain. The temporary closure of these hotels will leave 19,000 people without a job. In order to protect the existing 2.2 million jobs in the sector, Elizondo will meet today with Secretary of Labor Lozano to develop a special program for the sector. The hotel occupancy rate has fallen from between 60 and 80% to 10 and 15%. Elizondo noted that the measures announced by Carstens this week will not be enough to help the sector. He pledged to lobby for more fiscal incentives for the sector. MEXICO 00001277 005 OF 006 MONTERREY: Several business leaders estimated that companies suffered substantial losses from the May 1-5 closures. Guillermo Dillon of the large Nuevo Leon employers association Caintra estimated that all businesses, including manufacturing, tourism and services, had lost 6 billion pesos. In Zacatecas, the head of the hotel association said that hotel occupancy was only 6.4% (against a normal 30%), making it hard for hotels to pay expenses such as salaries, water, and other utilities. Zacatecas (just like Nuevo Leon),reported that all weddings, conventions and other events had been canceled. One bright note is that common crime fell 30% in San Luis Potosi during the H1N1 flu crisis. TIJUANA: The Baja labor office (STPS) responded to inquiries from businesses which had to close as to whether they needed to pay their employees for those days with a resounding &yes.8 He stated that, even though it was not so stated in the presidential decree, the law (Article 18 of the Labor Law) gives the benefit of the doubt to the worker. ¶11. (SBU) TRANSPORTATION -------------- Mexicana's CEO called the Embassy to request the CDC repeal its Mexico travel warning. Mexicana's domestic volume is rebounding after the weak holiday weekend, but international travel continues to fall. Daily flights to Los Angeles from across the Mexicana network, normally 25, numbered 10 on 8 May. System wide, the company canceled 140 of 360 scheduled flights on 7 May. Aside from their request for USG action, the company echoed many carriers in asking the GOM do more to help the industry. Thomas Cook, one of several package tour companies that fill flights to Mexico for European carriers, announced it would resume Mexico travel on 19 May. Ecuador announced it would end its suspension of air traffic from Mexico. Argentina, which agreed to reopen the Mexico City-Buenos Aires route on 4 May, continued to drag its feet on resumption of service. ¶12. (U) POLITICAL IMPACT -------------- The slumping economy and the bloody drug war had been Mexican voters, top worries ahead of midterm elections in July. However the AH1N1 virus has gained top billing in the campaign. Pollsters, who had found President Calderon's governing National Action Party lagging before the flu bug hit, are scrambling to see how the influenza outbreak may have changed the dynamics of the election season. Did Mr. Calderon's government overreact? Or did it skillfully manage the crisis and keep deaths down? In a natural disaster, the ruling party is hurt with a slow or corrupt response. However, no government has ever seen anything like this current outbreak. The candidates vying for local, state and federal positions on July 5 are required to take precautions, including using antibacterial hand gel liberally, to avoid spreading the influenza virus. Large political rallies of more than 40 people are discouraged and closed-door strategy sessions should allow a generous 7.2 feet between every attendee. With big rallies ruled out, campaigns are pouring more money into virtual outreach through the Internet and even text messages. And while candidates continue to espouse proposals to revive the economy and increase security, they are clearly trying to use the health crisis to their advantage. Hand gels and face masks have become the new free items handed out by office seekers, trumping T-shirts and baseball ats. And in some cases, candidates have even stamped the masks with their names and party logos, turning voters, faces into mobile campaign billboards. ¶13. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE MEXICO 00001277 006 OF 006 -------------- CDC and the Embassy are working together to develop an action plan to address the weaknesses in Mexico's health program and better prepare for future heath emergencies. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT