SITREP 13 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001250 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES) STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER) STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX SUBJECT: SITREP 13 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico REF: MEXICO 1236 and previous ¶1. (U) SUMMARY -------------- The GOM announced that the number of confirmed H1N1 cases now stands at 1,112 including 42 fatalities. Most of the fatalities were registered in April as Mexico continues to clear a backlog of samples. Restaurants in Mexico City and throughout other parts of the country reopened and traffic picked up. Mission Mexico will defer non-essential temporary duty travel as long as the CDC Travel Alert advises all Americans to postpone non-essential travel to Mexico. ¶2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS -------------- FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: The Secretary of Finance announced a 17.4 billion peso package to stimulate the economy. The package will include tax cuts for cruises and airlines, as well as deductions in social security bills for small businesses. The business sector gave the measure mixed reviews. The states are also being asked to come up with an additional 1.4 billion pesos in tax credits. An Aeromexico flagship 777 landed early the morning of 6 M at Mexico City International Airport's Presidential Hangar and discharged some 138 Mexican nationals released from Chinese quarantine. Mexico's First Lady was on hand to welcome home the travelers. MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: The Mexico City and Washington, D.C. metro systems traded additional information on pandemic preparedness and disinfecting stations and frequent-touch surfaces. Mayor Ebrard scrubbed clean a Metrobus in a 5 May media appearance to highlight the heightened sanitary measures implemented across the capital's transportation system. The Mexico City government has not determined when establishments where large numbers of the public gather will be allowed to reopen - including bars, discos, night clubs, movie theaters, gyms, and convention centers. ¶3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS -------------- -------------- No new information to report. ¶4. (SBU) STATISTICS -------------- FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: HEALTH Secretary Cordova announced in a May 6 press conference that the number of confirmed cases now stands at 1,112 (out of 2164 total cases tested),including 42 fatalities. Most of the fatalities were registered in April, but deaths were also registered on May 5 (1),May 4 (1),May 3 (1) and May 1 (1). Sixteen of the deceased were between 20 and 29 years old. The majority of the deceased were from Mexico City. STATE BY STATE: The GOM did not issue state by state numbers of confirmed cases on May 5, but did issue a state by state breakdown of confirmed deaths: CHIAPAS - 1 DF - 29 HIDALGO - 1 MEXICO STATE - 5 OAXACA - 1 SAN LUIS POTOSI - 3 TLAXCALA - 2 ¶5. (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES -------------- The HEALTH Unit has tested a total of 25 Embassy staff or EFMS for possible H1N1 influenza. ONE test has been confirmed and ONE test is probable. Ten members of the Embassy community are taking Tamiflu. MEXICO 00001250 002 OF 005 The Charge hosted a virtual Town Hall meeting on May 6 to address the Embassy community's questions and concerns about the H1N1 outbreak. ¶6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES -------------- The EAC decided to defer further discussion about authorized departure. With schools, restaurants and businesses reopening in Mexico, concerns within the community have waned. The Embassy will continue to monitor the situation closely and reconvene the EAC if necessary. The EAC decided to continue deferring non-essential temporary duty travel as long as the CDC Travel Alert advising all Americans to postpone non-essential travel to Mexico. ¶7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES -------------- Call volume to the Embassy switchboard continues to decline. In the 24 hours through 0700 AM May 6, the switch received 8 H1N1 related inquiries. Effective Wednesday, May 6, ACS resumed normal operations at the U.S. Embassy and at consulates nationwide. All nonimmigrant visa operations at consular posts in Mexico will resume normal operations on Monday, May 11; some nonimmigrant visa applicants will be seen on Thursday and Friday, May 7 and 8. All nonimmigrant visa applicants will be contacted directly by the scheduling service about their rescheduled appointments. Immigrant visa appointments will resume normal operations on Monday, May 18. ¶8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES -------------- CIUDAD JUAREZ: There are 4 confirmed cases of swine flu in Chihuahua. Since April 25, state HEALTH authorities have processed 90 possible cases of swine flu in Ciudad Juarez - - 2 tested positive for swine flu, 32 were negative, 17 tested positive for seasonal flu, and 39 are pending laboratory results. CDC reported to Post on May 6 that there are 19 possible and 7 confirmed cases of swine flu in El Paso County, six of which are school-aged children. All patients are recovering without complications. The CDC said that most of the individuals confirmed to have swine flu in El Paso had not traveled to Mexico, suggesting that they contracted the virus through secondary transmission. The number of new possible cases referred by Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) from international bridges in El Paso continues to trend downward. El Paso County announced that it has no plans to close schools due to the swine flu. The U.S. Consulate General reopened on Wednesday, May 6, 2009. Non-immigrant visa services will reopen slowly from May 6 to May 8, with full operations resuming on May 11. Immigrant visa services will resume on May 18. Panel physicians will re-open the week of May 11 to receive applicants with appointments the week of May 18. GUADALAJARA: Governor Emilio Gonzalez maintains that Jalisco remains H1N1 free but acknowledges 9 probable cases are still being studied. To date, Jalisco has referred approximately 300 cases for examination. Most universities reopened today, but the University of Guadalajara and all grammar schools remain closed. University of Guadalajara scientists reported today that, although the daily reported number of new cases in DF has declined, the danger has not passed and new cases are likely to increase in other Mexican states. As Jalisco prepares to resume cultural activities and re-open its cinemas, the government is examining ways to continue to improve preventative sanitary measures. Political campaigns opened officially today, but with restrictions on public gatherings. Nevertheless, campaign activities were witnessed over the weekend. RSO reports police checkpoints on major highways over the weekend to diminish the potential spread of H1N1. Police checked the temperature of travelers and questioned them. NIV handled approximately 20 cases today. These cases were applicants who could MEXICO 00001250 003 OF 005 not be reached when the consulate closure was communicated. ACS handled their normal work load plus the remaining cases from last week. They reported that nearly every applicant requested emergency processing. Additionally, they reported an increase in the number of cases referred to fraud. HERMOSILLO: Sinaloa reports no confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza. Sonora reports two laboratory confirmed reports of H1N1 influenza: a 15 year old boy in Hermosillo who has recovered and an 8 year old boy receiving treatment for the flu at the DIF hospital for children in Hermosillo. This is his third day fever free and he is expected to be released in the next 48 hours. It is believed that both cases were contracted while the Mexican children were visiting in the U.S. MATAMOROS: Matamoros reported 36 suspected cases of H1N1 flu. Matamoros officials closed a popular beach amid growing concerns over the H1N1 flu through May 6. Tamaulipas Governor Eugenio Hernandez said that the swine flu is entering a "phase of control". Across the river, the Texas Rio Grande Valley is recording its first death from the H1N1 flu or "swine flu". State HEALTH officials are reporting a 33-year-old Harlingen woman, who had underlying HEALTH conditions, died from the virus this week. The woman's diagnosis makes her the second confirmed case of the H1N1 flu in Cameron County and the 61st in the state. MERIDA: Hotel occupancy continues its downward trajectory. According to the Hotel Association, occupancy in Cancun is now at 23.9 percent. The Governor of Quintana Roo announced today that state wide hotel occupancy (including Cancun and the Rivera Maya) is at 15%. The Cancun Airport is expecting 181 flights (86 domestic and 95 international) for today and has already received 34 cancellations. Occupancy on arriving flights remains very low. Cruise lines have announced that they are suspending traffic to the ports of Progresso, Yucatan and Cozumel and Majahual in Quintana Roo through June 15. In Yucatan, cinemas, shopping malls and museums will re-open today. Restaurants, cinemas, etc. are all limiting capacity and enforcing density restrictions. The State predicts that its "sanitary fence" of HEALTH checkpoints will continue through the month. The public remains calm but concerned about long term economic impact. Quintana Roo now confirms 11 cases of H1N1. ONE of these involves a USC who was previously reported as negative for H1N1. A subsequent sample has now come back positive (reported in more detail to CA/OCS). Consulate and Consular Agency staff and EFMs remain calm. We will contact a regularly scheduled radio check tonight. The Consulate and Consular Agencies reopened today with limited public services. There is a very low level of phone calls. We plan to open limited visa services, starting tomorrow. MONTERREY: The consular district is getting back to work as government offices and businesses open, and the government cleans the schools in preparation for the students returning to classes. Nuevo Leon and San Luis Potosi are moving ahead with plans for local universities to receive training so that they can test for H1N1 flu to overcome delays and backlogs in testing flu samples. Nuevo Leon disclosed that there are four confirmed cases of H1N1 flu in the state based on samples taken April 26. All four patients are recovering well, but due to the delay in test results, none of them received H1N1 medications. Zacatecas has also disclosed 33 confirmed H1N1 cases (they had been silent for several days). Fifty percent of the Zacatecas H1N1 patients are between 16 and 30 years old. San Luis Potosi (SLP) has 58 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu, and one confirmed death. Consulate Monterrey opened for business, although non-emergency visa processing will not resume until Monday, May 11. Monterrey's NIV Section will reopen for interviews May 7-8 for applicants who have already been enrolled at the offsite Applicant Services Center. NIV staff are working with the CSC scheduling team to give priority May 12-14 to H2 temporary worker applicants, with up to 1,200 H2 interview slots opened those days. ACS has resumed regular appointment schedule for passport and citizenship cases. The Consulate discussed the need for timelier processing of suspected H1N1 samples for patients and will explore linking local authorities to U.S. medical experts. The Consulate publicized the Embassy's MEXICO 00001250 004 OF 005 4:00 virtual town hall meeting. There are no suspected cases of H1N1 flu among FSO or LES staff or their dependents. Nuevo Leon business leaders were critical of the government's plan to reduce taxes to support businesses hurt by H1N1 flu closing. The Nuevo Leon maquila association noted that 76% of maquilas closed during the May 1-5 period, higher than in other areas and protested the fines given four maquilas which failed to close. Some business will remain closed for some time, such as movies and nightclubs in Coahuila. A Durango business leader said that while he could not calculate the economic losses, he expected the economy to recover quickly. NOGALES: CBP NOGALES: CBP reports normal northbound traffic at both Nogales ports of entry. There are no H1N1 cases in Northern Sonora. However, there a number of cases in Arizona border counties including: ten confirmed cases in Pima County including four on Tohono O'odham Reservation; 11 confirmed cases in Yuma County; two confirmed cases in Santa Cruz County. Post will resume operations gradually with full services in effect by Monday, May 11. Post will contact outstanding H2s directly this week, rather than through CSC. They will aim for 50% of their normal capacity. The Nogales Arizona school district is the only district in the State of Arizona to remain closed - despite latest CDC guidelines. Visa service NUEVO LAREDO: The public is calm and many people continue to wear face masks. Restaurants and grocery stores remain open to the public. Bridge traffic to Laredo, TX seems to have resumed to normal levels. There are still no confirmed cases of H1N1 in Neuvo Laredo but there is ONE confirmed case in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas. According to the press conference given by Coahuila's Secretary of HEALTH today at 1:00 p.m. there are 14 suspected swine flu cases in Piedras Negras. Of those 14 cases ONE is hospitalized. TIJUANA: Baja California now has 18 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu, with the majority of cases in Mexicali. All of the newly identified cases have received treatment and have recovered. San Diego cases have risen to 27. There is a possible cluster outbreak of more than 50 cases on ONE of the navy vessels (the Dubuque) The three high schools which had closed have now re-opened, a week before it was planned. Border crossings appear to be back at normal operation and wait times. American Citizen Services is operating normally except for routine prison visits which have been postponed until next week. NIV is processing reduced numbers of reduced visa applications, including referrals, emergencies, and group renewals whose appointments for Thursday and Friday had not been cancelled. MEXICO CITY CONSULAR DISTRICT: Consular agents in the Mexico City Consular district report that daily life is returning to normal. Consular agents received less call volume over the weekend, life in the streets appear to be calmer and traffic is slowly increasing. Additionally, less people are wearing masks during their daily activities. ¶9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS -------------- -------------- Coverage on May 6 of the H1N1 flu outbreak in the Mexican media focused on the stimulus packages to help the economy recover. Some complained that the package is insufficient and that it is only a short-term solution, while others said it was a step in the right direction. The Secretary of Economy filed a suit before the World Trade Organization against trade restriction on Mexican products related to the influenza outbreak. Most media outlets also featured the story of the Mexican airplane sent to "rescue" more than a hundred Mexicans who had been quarantined in China. The Chinese embassy spoke in the media offering its side of the story. According to Chinese officials, the quarantine was not an act of discrimination but a means to stop the spreading of the virus given the dense population of China. The media celebrated that California HEALTH authorities recognized that the H1N1 virus probably did not originate in Mexico. They point out that the first reported case occurred in San Diego on March 30. The MEXICO 00001250 005 OF 005 press also mentioned the second death of H1N1 influenza in the U.S. and the increase to 403 reported cases in the U.S. ¶10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT -------------- Mission Mexico convened a conference call with the American Chamber and heads of various US businesses operating in Mexico, including from the energy, financial, transportation, and insurance sectors. The businesses expressed their relief that the worst appears to be over and commercial activity seems to be returning to normal. ONE leader called the business closures and other preventive measures a "good fire drill," and all thought the government's response to the outbreak was effective and appropriate. Some businesses are still restricting employees' travel to and from Mexico to avoid encountering problems. AmCham's expert economist commented that while it is too early to know the extent of the impact that the outbreak will have on Mexico's economy, the overall economic situation immediately prior to the outbreak was much worse than expected. Consequently, H1N1 has exacerbated an already serious situation, and while it is not quite the same as 1995, it is close. ¶11. (U) TRANSPORTATION -------------- Alaska Airlines, which plans a 37% cut in Mexico service through autumn 2009, began shifting planes from Mexico routes to U.S. domestic routes where demand is greater. ¶12. (U) POLITICAL IMPACT -------------- The official start of the campaigning season for congressional elections was Sunday May 3. Reports indicate that all political parties are showing solidarity with the measures implemented by the government to combat the influenza outbreak. The government has strongly discouraged large rallies and political parties have adjusted their campaigning schedule to abide by this directive. As a result, candidates have turned to innovative ways to reach the public. Several candidates launched webcasts or facebook, YouTube, and twitter sites on the first official day of campaigning. Additionally, political parties in some areas handed out protective masks imprinted with candidates' slogans and party logos. A looming concern is that voter turnout could be H1N1 influenza's next victim because most candidates feel that the web is no substitute for old-fashioned rallies and canvassing in a country full of remote villages and unconnected working class communities. ¶13. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE -------------- The GOM has invited the Charge, and senior CDC and OFDA representatives to a Ceremony of Appreciation at the Secretariat of Health on May 7. BASSETT