SITREP 10 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001235 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES) STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER) STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX SUBJECT: SITREP 10 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico REF: MEXICO 1234 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY -------------- On the morning of May 3, Secretary of Health Cordova announced that the GOM had confirmed 506 cases of H1N1 and 19 fatalities. He stressed that Mexico had not ignored warnings from the World Health Organization (WHO) of a possible outbreak, but had responded in a timely and responsible manner. Businesses and citizens alike are anxiously awaiting the GOM's decision, likely to be made May 4, on whether to continue school and business closures. ¶2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS -------------- In a press conference on the morning of May 3, Health Secretary Cordova gave an overview of when the outbreak was detected in Mexico and when the government acted. He appeared to be responding to press reports that as early as April 11 the WHO alerted authorities in Veracruz and Oaxaca of the possibility of an outbreak. Cordova said the government began to act on April 20 after it was able to confirm that the first cases were not related to the seasonal flu, and that Mexico never discounted the gravity of the situation. Secretary Cordova acknowledged that the influenza outbreak has disproportionately affected Mexico's poor, especially those families with large numbers living under one roof and who lack access to basic sanitary conditions. ¶3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS -------------- -------------- Nothing new to report. ¶4. (SBU) STATISTICS -------------- FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 3 morning press conference that the number of confirmed cases now stands at 506 (39 percent of the total cases tested),including 19 fatalities. 54 percent of the confirmed cases are women. 14 of the fatalities are women; 12 of the deceased were between 21 and 40 years of age. Only one confirmed case involves a foreign national - a citizen of Bangladesh, according to Secretary Cordova. STATE GOVERNMENT: 23 states have confirmed cases. Below is the state-by-state breakdown of cases compiled by the Secretariat of Health, as of 2200 hrs on May 2. State-by-state Statistics (cases, deaths) Auguascalientes 5, 0 Baja California 11, 0 Baja California Sur 0, 0 Campeche 0, 0 Coahuila 0, 0 Colima 9, 0 Chiapas 6, 0 Chihuahua 4, 0 Distrito Federal 288, 6 Durango 2, 0 Guanajuato 1, 0 Guerrero 3, 0 Hidalgo 27, 0 Jalisco 0, 0 State of Mexico 70, 4 Michoacan 1, 0 Morelos 0, 0 Nuevo Leon 0, 0 Nayarit 0, 0 Oaxaca 1, 1 Puebla 3, 0 Queretaro 2, 1 Quintana Roo 1, 0 San Luis Potosi 42, 0 Sinaloa 0, 0 Sonora 1, 0 MEXICO 00001235 002 OF 005 Tabasco 4, 0 Tamaulipas 1, 0 Tlaxcala 19, 1 Veracruz 1, 0 Yucatan 0, 0 Zacatecas 4, 0 Not specified 0, 7 ¶5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES -------------- The Embassy medical unit received no calls in the last 24 hours and tested no additional staff for H1N1. Confirmation is still pending on the one Embassy case deemed "probable." ¶6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES -------------- Nothing new to report. ¶7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES -------------- Call volume to the Embassy switchboard continues to decline. In the 24 hours through 0900 3 May, 37 calls were received, including only six influenza-related inquiries. Between 0900 and 1500 on 3 May, the switchboard received only one influenza-related call. ¶8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES -------------- CIUDAD JUAREZ: Chihuahua reports four confirmed H1N1 cases - two in Ciudad Juarez and two in Chihuahua City. The Health Secretariat confirms that all four patients had mild flu symptoms. While they have all completely recovered, they remain in quarantine as a precautionary measure. The Health Secretariat believes that at least two of the patients contracted H1N1 while visiting Mexico City several weeks ago. State health authorities told Post that the four patients are among the first cases detected on April 25. As of May 3, there are 29 possible cases of H1N1 in Ciudad Juarez (no figures are available for the entire state). The local representative for the Secretariat of Health in Ciudad Juarez told Post that the number of new cases reported is declining daily, and added that he suspects many of the possible cases will ultimately be ruled out as seasonal flu. There is no change in the state or local governments' response. The Center for Disease Control in El Paso reported to Post on May 3 that there are eight possible cases and no confirmed H1N1 cases in El Paso County. There is no change in the local government's response. The CDC reiterated to Post that the rise in possible cases will not result in any change in its guidance to the general public or the government. GUADALAJARA: There are still no reported cases of H1N1 in the state of Jalisco. Health checkpoints at airports and roads across the state have led to over 12,000 vehicles and roughly 33,000 people being stopped. Of the 120 cases screened on May 1-2, not one has come up positive. Though the Electoral Commission has given the green light for campaigns to begin today, with the exception of mass meetings until May 15, local political groups are being cautious. The PAN candidate for Mayor of Guadalajara, Jorge Salinas, took out full page ads in the leading newspapers to urge his supporters not to conduct meetings or rallies in the face of these "difficult times," and invited other parties to be similarly "responsible." Nonetheless, PANistas are out canvassing. Many stores and businesses remain open, and though there is a great deal less traffic in area, life appears largely normal. Post duty officer received no flu-related calls. HERMOSILLO: To date, there are no confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza confirmed in Hermosillo's consular district. Arizona ports of entry MEXICO 00001235 003 OF 005 report light traffic, down from yesterday. Border wait times in Nogales range from 15-20 minutes. DHS in Arizona reports no cases of visibly sick travelers entering the U.S. from Mexico. The consulate duty officer received no calls regarding H1N1 during the last 24 hours. MERIDA: There is general calm but much concern about the economic impact of H1N1. Hotel occupancy throughout Quintana Roo is low, with estimates ranging between 40-50%. In Merida, hotel occupancy is 20%. 80% of hotel reservations for this traditional Mexican holiday weekend were cancelled. Cancun Airport reports 14 cancelled flights today (incoming) and Merida Airport reports the cancellation of 5 flights (outbound). Throughout the peninsula, health checks continue at transportation hubs. Cinemas remain closed and large public gatherings have been cancelled. Stores and restaurants are generally open, but with lower volume. Tourists and local residents are complying with all public health measures. MONTERREY: Although several businesses did so "under protest," most non-essential businesses are closed and will remain so until May 5. Essential services and businesses such as utilities and supermarkets are open and operating normally. The Nuevo Leon government has threatened to fine businesses that violate this course of action. San Luis Potosi authorities have sent mobile information cars to La Huasteca, a remote, poor and mountainous area, to urge all restaurants and masses to be closed. Officials are also distributing information in anticipation of the resumption of classes, including how to sanitize the schools, and encourage the use of air filters face masks. All incoming buses at the Coahuila bus stations are being inspected and highways are patrolled. Durango has suspended masses. The Nuevo Leon Secretary of Health has admitted that he knew, but did not disclose, information on the location of suspected cases, as he thought it might lead to panic. San Luis Potosi and Nuevo Leon now report no deaths attributable to H1N1; previously, one death in Nuevo Leon had been a suspected case, and 15 deaths in San Luis Potosi had been attributed to H1N1. 224 of 270 suspected cases have been review in Nuevo Leon, with no confirmed cases. San Luis Potosi is awaiting results for more than 200 cases; of the 101 results received so far, 29 cases are confirmed as H1N1. Durango has confirmed two H1N1 cases, although it took a week for the test results to come back. Durango has tested 430 cases; 367 were not H1N1, and they are still awaiting results for 63 cases. In Coahuila there are conflicting reports. The government states that they have reviewed 66 suspected cases, confirming that 47 are not H1N1, and 19 are still under investigation. Local media reports 89 suspected cases, of which 64 were not H1N1, and 25 cases are still under review. Zacatecas does not have any updated figures. (NOTE: The Health Secretariat reports four confirmed cases in Zacatecas. END NOTE.) There are no suspected cases of H1N1 among Consulate direct hire, LES staff or dependents. The duty officer has not received any calls related to H1N1. NOGALES: While Sonora still has zero confirmed cases, Post reports the first confirmed case of H1N1 in Nogales, Arizona, on the other side of the border. The positive case is a child who attends an elementary school in the Nogales Unified School District (NUSD) - all NUSD schools will be closed this coming week. NUEVO LAREDO: The public remains calm and many people continue to wear face masks. There are still no confirmed cases of H1N1 in Nuevo Laredo but local media reports nine suspected cases. Restaurants and grocery stores remain open to the public. The local newspaper, El Manana, reported that that due to health concerns and the fear of contracting H1N1, local restaurants are suffering from declines in patronage. Tourism from the United States to Nuevo Laredo has also fallen, and bridge traffic to Laredo, TX appears to be lower than average. TIJUANA: The duty officer reports no flu-related calls. The Baja California state Health Secretary announced that the number of confirmed cases of H1N1 in Baja has risen to 11 - ten in Mexicali and one in Ensenada. Seven of the cases are minors, and four are adults (13 to 41 years old). There is no known connection between MEXICO 00001235 004 OF 005 the infected individuals. Thirty additional samples, taken between April 23 and May 2, have been sent for testing. Of those thirty cases, 16 have recovered completely; the remaining 14 remain hospitalized but should be released soon. Cases across the border in San Diego now number 15, including four military cases. None of the cases required hospitalization. Hospital General in Tijuana reported that around 50 people were examined at the mobile units, with only one showing flu symptoms, but even that patient was cleared. The "suspect" case reported in SITREP 9 (see reftel) was cleared and released from the hospital; the hospital is now reporting that it is clear of the flu virus. Border crossing times remain low, with waits of approximately 10 minutes in Otay Mesa and 30 minutes at San Ysidro. Ensenada reports that people have returned to the beaches and all appears to be business as usual - but there are fewer visitors than expected. Aeromexico temporarily suspended its Tijuana-Shanghai flight after one passenger, travelling from Guadalajara to Shanghai via Tijuana, arrived in China with flu symptoms. Yesterday's incoming flight was cancelled. Travel agents report a 75% drop in business. ¶9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS -------------- -------------- On May 3, coverage of the H1N1 flu outbreak in the Mexican media focused on international issues. The top story in all newspapers and electronic media newscasts was the press conference held by the Secretary of Foreign Relations, Patricia Espinosa. Secretary Espinosa expressed her concern and objected to what she called "unjustified, unilateral, discriminatory and incoherent" measures adopted by Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Cuba who suspended flights to Mexico. "We are especially concerned about China," she stated referring to the Mexicans there who have been quarantined. "And we recommend Mexicans not to travel to China." Many commentators and media outlets, like TV Azteca's Mariano Rivapalacio, suggested that, "Discrimination against Mexicans is more contagious than the H1N1 virus." Five newspapers ran this as the feature story, as shown by the following front page headlines, "Discriminatory and unfair treatment to Mexicans" (El Universal); "China segregates 71 Mexicans" (Milenio); "Secretariat of Foreign Relations condemns discrimination against Mexicans" (La Cronica); "Outbreak infects foreign policy" (Excelsior); "SRE condemns attacks against Mexicans" (Rumbo de Mexico). El Universal's political gossip column Bajo Reserva stated, "The discrimination faced by Mexicans around the world for the H1N1 flu outbreak is so serious that Secretary Espinosa took advantage of the presence of foreign correspondents to condemn the fact. She even talked of xenophobic practices Mexicans have suffered, especially in China." During the press conference, Secretary Espinosa highlighted many times the great cooperation with the United States. She mentioned both the good flow of information with the Mexican communities in the United States and "the assistance and cooperation we have had from the first moment" with the U.S. government. Further, a phone conversation between President Calderon and President Obama was also among the top items in the media. "President Calderon told Barack Obama that there were positive signs that the outbreak was being contained with the number of cases stabilizing," stated news reports. "Calderon also recognized Obama for his cooperation and for keeping the border open." Newspaper Uno Mas Uno even featured the headline "U.S. and Mexico versus flu." Other media topics included President Calderon's meeting with state governors to consolidate actions against the outbreak, and the fact that for the second day in a row there were no new reported deaths in Mexico City. ¶10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT -------------- With no new flu-related deaths reported for the second day in a row, some Mexicans and business owners felt confident enough to ignore the nationwide shutdown on May 2 and May 3. While several major shopping malls and other stores were closed throughout the city, a MEXICO 00001235 005 OF 005 handful of nonessential businesses including opticians, stationery stores and beauty salons remained open. Some residents walked their dogs and chatted with neighbors, many choosing to forgo the ubiquitous surgical masks. Businesses and citizens alike are anxiously awaiting the GOM's decision, likely to be made May 4, on whether to continue the school and business closures. ¶11. (U) TRANSPORTATION -------------- This has been an extremely quiet long weekend for airlines operating in Mexico. Flag carriers Aeromexico and Mexicana are now beginning to feel the pinch, and both firms are cancelling domestic flights - reducing the frequency of operations between cities but not discontinuing service. Their international routes are in even worse shape. Mexicana managed to repatriate customers stranded in Havana, due to the suspension of flights by the Cuban government. Following Minister Espinosa's public comments and considerable diplomatic pressure, flights to Buenos Aires will restart May 4. ¶12. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE -------------- The total shipment of 100,000 personal protection kits dispatched by USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) arrived in Mexico City on May 2 - there had earlier been some confusion as to whether or not it was a partial shipment. OFDA will coordinate the distribution of the kits (an estimated donation of almost 1 million USD) with the GOM authorities. BASSETT