SITREP 10 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001235

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA,
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES)
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER)
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 10 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

REF: MEXICO 1234


1. (U) SUMMARY
--------------

On the morning of May 3, Secretary of Health Cordova announced that
the GOM had confirmed 506 cases of H1N1 and 19 fatalities. He
stressed that Mexico had not ignored warnings from the World Health
Organization (WHO) of a possible outbreak, but had responded in a
timely and responsible manner. Businesses and citizens alike are
anxiously awaiting the GOM's decision, likely to be made May 4, on
whether to continue school and business closures.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
--------------

In a press conference on the morning of May 3, Health Secretary
Cordova gave an overview of when the outbreak was detected in Mexico
and when the government acted. He appeared to be responding to
press reports that as early as April 11 the WHO alerted authorities
in Veracruz and Oaxaca of the possibility of an outbreak. Cordova
said the government began to act on April 20 after it was able to
confirm that the first cases were not related to the seasonal flu,
and that Mexico never discounted the gravity of the situation.

Secretary Cordova acknowledged that the influenza outbreak has
disproportionately affected Mexico's poor, especially those families
with large numbers living under one roof and who lack access to
basic sanitary conditions.


3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS
-------------- --------------

Nothing new to report.


4. (SBU) STATISTICS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 3
morning press conference that the number of confirmed cases now
stands at 506 (39 percent of the total cases tested),including 19
fatalities. 54 percent of the confirmed cases are women. 14 of the
fatalities are women; 12 of the deceased were between 21 and 40
years of age. Only one confirmed case involves a foreign national -
a citizen of Bangladesh, according to Secretary Cordova.

STATE GOVERNMENT: 23 states have confirmed cases. Below is the
state-by-state breakdown of cases compiled by the Secretariat of
Health, as of 2200 hrs on May 2.

State-by-state Statistics (cases, deaths)
Auguascalientes 5, 0
Baja California 11, 0
Baja California Sur 0, 0
Campeche 0, 0
Coahuila 0, 0
Colima 9, 0
Chiapas 6, 0
Chihuahua 4, 0
Distrito Federal 288, 6
Durango 2, 0
Guanajuato 1, 0
Guerrero 3, 0
Hidalgo 27, 0
Jalisco 0, 0
State of Mexico 70, 4
Michoacan 1, 0
Morelos 0, 0
Nuevo Leon 0, 0
Nayarit 0, 0
Oaxaca 1, 1
Puebla 3, 0
Queretaro 2, 1
Quintana Roo 1, 0
San Luis Potosi 42, 0
Sinaloa 0, 0
Sonora 1, 0

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Tabasco 4, 0
Tamaulipas 1, 0
Tlaxcala 19, 1
Veracruz 1, 0
Yucatan 0, 0
Zacatecas 4, 0
Not specified 0, 7



5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES
--------------

The Embassy medical unit received no calls in the last 24 hours and
tested no additional staff for H1N1. Confirmation is still pending
on the one Embassy case deemed "probable."


6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES
--------------

Nothing new to report.


7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES
--------------

Call volume to the Embassy switchboard continues to decline. In the
24 hours through 0900 3 May, 37 calls were received, including only
six influenza-related inquiries. Between 0900 and 1500 on 3 May,
the switchboard received only one influenza-related call.


8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES
--------------

CIUDAD JUAREZ: Chihuahua reports four confirmed H1N1 cases - two in
Ciudad Juarez and two in Chihuahua City. The Health Secretariat
confirms that all four patients had mild flu symptoms. While they
have all completely recovered, they remain in quarantine as a
precautionary measure. The Health Secretariat believes that at
least two of the patients contracted H1N1 while visiting Mexico City
several weeks ago. State health authorities told Post that the four
patients are among the first cases detected on April 25.

As of May 3, there are 29 possible cases of H1N1 in Ciudad Juarez
(no figures are available for the entire state). The local
representative for the Secretariat of Health in Ciudad Juarez told
Post that the number of new cases reported is declining daily, and
added that he suspects many of the possible cases will ultimately be
ruled out as seasonal flu. There is no change in the state or local
governments' response.

The Center for Disease Control in El Paso reported to Post on May 3
that there are eight possible cases and no confirmed H1N1 cases in
El Paso County. There is no change in the local government's
response. The CDC reiterated to Post that the rise in possible
cases will not result in any change in its guidance to the general
public or the government.

GUADALAJARA: There are still no reported cases of H1N1 in the state
of Jalisco. Health checkpoints at airports and roads across the
state have led to over 12,000 vehicles and roughly 33,000 people
being stopped. Of the 120 cases screened on May 1-2, not one has
come up positive.

Though the Electoral Commission has given the green light for
campaigns to begin today, with the exception of mass meetings until
May 15, local political groups are being cautious. The PAN
candidate for Mayor of Guadalajara, Jorge Salinas, took out full
page ads in the leading newspapers to urge his supporters not to
conduct meetings or rallies in the face of these "difficult times,"
and invited other parties to be similarly "responsible."
Nonetheless, PANistas are out canvassing.

Many stores and businesses remain open, and though there is a great
deal less traffic in area, life appears largely normal. Post duty
officer received no flu-related calls.

HERMOSILLO: To date, there are no confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza
confirmed in Hermosillo's consular district. Arizona ports of entry

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report light traffic, down from yesterday. Border wait times in
Nogales range from 15-20 minutes. DHS in Arizona reports no cases
of visibly sick travelers entering the U.S. from Mexico. The
consulate duty officer received no calls regarding H1N1 during the
last 24 hours.

MERIDA: There is general calm but much concern about the economic
impact of H1N1. Hotel occupancy throughout Quintana Roo is low,
with estimates ranging between 40-50%. In Merida, hotel occupancy
is 20%. 80% of hotel reservations for this traditional Mexican
holiday weekend were cancelled. Cancun Airport reports 14 cancelled
flights today (incoming) and Merida Airport reports the cancellation
of 5 flights (outbound). Throughout the peninsula, health checks
continue at transportation hubs. Cinemas remain closed and large
public gatherings have been cancelled. Stores and restaurants are
generally open, but with lower volume. Tourists and local residents
are complying with all public health measures.

MONTERREY: Although several businesses did so "under protest," most
non-essential businesses are closed and will remain so until May 5.
Essential services and businesses such as utilities and supermarkets
are open and operating normally. The Nuevo Leon government has
threatened to fine businesses that violate this course of action.
San Luis Potosi authorities have sent mobile information cars to La
Huasteca, a remote, poor and mountainous area, to urge all
restaurants and masses to be closed. Officials are also
distributing information in anticipation of the resumption of
classes, including how to sanitize the schools, and encourage the
use of air filters face masks. All incoming buses at the Coahuila
bus stations are being inspected and highways are patrolled.
Durango has suspended masses.

The Nuevo Leon Secretary of Health has admitted that he knew, but
did not disclose, information on the location of suspected cases, as
he thought it might lead to panic. San Luis Potosi and Nuevo Leon
now report no deaths attributable to H1N1; previously, one death in
Nuevo Leon had been a suspected case, and 15 deaths in San Luis
Potosi had been attributed to H1N1. 224 of 270 suspected cases have
been review in Nuevo Leon, with no confirmed cases. San Luis Potosi
is awaiting results for more than 200 cases; of the 101 results
received so far, 29 cases are confirmed as H1N1. Durango has
confirmed two H1N1 cases, although it took a week for the test
results to come back. Durango has tested 430 cases; 367 were not
H1N1, and they are still awaiting results for 63 cases. In Coahuila
there are conflicting reports. The government states that they have
reviewed 66 suspected cases, confirming that 47 are not H1N1, and 19
are still under investigation. Local media reports 89 suspected
cases, of which 64 were not H1N1, and 25 cases are still under
review. Zacatecas does not have any updated figures. (NOTE: The
Health Secretariat reports four confirmed cases in Zacatecas. END
NOTE.)

There are no suspected cases of H1N1 among Consulate direct hire,
LES staff or dependents. The duty officer has not received any
calls related to H1N1.

NOGALES: While Sonora still has zero confirmed cases, Post reports
the first confirmed case of H1N1 in Nogales, Arizona, on the other
side of the border. The positive case is a child who attends an
elementary school in the Nogales Unified School District (NUSD) -
all NUSD schools will be closed this coming week.

NUEVO LAREDO: The public remains calm and many people continue to
wear face masks. There are still no confirmed cases of H1N1 in
Nuevo Laredo but local media reports nine suspected cases.
Restaurants and grocery stores remain open to the public. The local
newspaper, El Manana, reported that that due to health concerns and
the fear of contracting H1N1, local restaurants are suffering from
declines in patronage. Tourism from the United States to Nuevo
Laredo has also fallen, and bridge traffic to Laredo, TX appears to
be lower than average.

TIJUANA: The duty officer reports no flu-related calls. The Baja
California state Health Secretary announced that the number of
confirmed cases of H1N1 in Baja has risen to 11 - ten in Mexicali
and one in Ensenada. Seven of the cases are minors, and four are
adults (13 to 41 years old). There is no known connection between

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the infected individuals. Thirty additional samples, taken between
April 23 and May 2, have been sent for testing. Of those thirty
cases, 16 have recovered completely; the remaining 14 remain
hospitalized but should be released soon. Cases across the border
in San Diego now number 15, including four military cases. None of
the cases required hospitalization.

Hospital General in Tijuana reported that around 50 people were
examined at the mobile units, with only one showing flu symptoms,
but even that patient was cleared. The "suspect" case reported in
SITREP 9 (see reftel) was cleared and released from the hospital;
the hospital is now reporting that it is clear of the flu virus.

Border crossing times remain low, with waits of approximately 10
minutes in Otay Mesa and 30 minutes at San Ysidro. Ensenada reports
that people have returned to the beaches and all appears to be
business as usual - but there are fewer visitors than expected.

Aeromexico temporarily suspended its Tijuana-Shanghai flight after
one passenger, travelling from Guadalajara to Shanghai via Tijuana,
arrived in China with flu symptoms. Yesterday's incoming flight was
cancelled. Travel agents report a 75% drop in business.


9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS
-------------- --------------

On May 3, coverage of the H1N1 flu outbreak in the Mexican media
focused on international issues. The top story in all newspapers
and electronic media newscasts was the press conference held by the
Secretary of Foreign Relations, Patricia Espinosa. Secretary
Espinosa expressed her concern and objected to what she called
"unjustified, unilateral, discriminatory and incoherent" measures
adopted by Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Cuba who suspended flights
to Mexico. "We are especially concerned about China," she stated
referring to the Mexicans there who have been quarantined. "And we
recommend Mexicans not to travel to China."

Many commentators and media outlets, like TV Azteca's Mariano
Rivapalacio, suggested that, "Discrimination against Mexicans is
more contagious than the H1N1 virus." Five newspapers ran this as
the feature story, as shown by the following front page headlines,
"Discriminatory and unfair treatment to Mexicans" (El Universal);
"China segregates 71 Mexicans" (Milenio); "Secretariat of Foreign
Relations condemns discrimination against Mexicans" (La Cronica);
"Outbreak infects foreign policy" (Excelsior); "SRE condemns attacks
against Mexicans" (Rumbo de Mexico). El Universal's political
gossip column Bajo Reserva stated, "The discrimination faced by
Mexicans around the world for the H1N1 flu outbreak is so serious
that Secretary Espinosa took advantage of the presence of foreign
correspondents to condemn the fact. She even talked of xenophobic
practices Mexicans have suffered, especially in China."

During the press conference, Secretary Espinosa highlighted many
times the great cooperation with the United States. She mentioned
both the good flow of information with the Mexican communities in
the United States and "the assistance and cooperation we have had
from the first moment" with the U.S. government. Further, a phone
conversation between President Calderon and President Obama was also
among the top items in the media. "President Calderon told Barack
Obama that there were positive signs that the outbreak was being
contained with the number of cases stabilizing," stated news
reports. "Calderon also recognized Obama for his cooperation and
for keeping the border open." Newspaper Uno Mas Uno even featured
the headline "U.S. and Mexico versus flu."

Other media topics included President Calderon's meeting with state
governors to consolidate actions against the outbreak, and the fact
that for the second day in a row there were no new reported deaths
in Mexico City.


10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

With no new flu-related deaths reported for the second day in a row,
some Mexicans and business owners felt confident enough to ignore
the nationwide shutdown on May 2 and May 3. While several major
shopping malls and other stores were closed throughout the city, a

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handful of nonessential businesses including opticians, stationery
stores and beauty salons remained open. Some residents walked their
dogs and chatted with neighbors, many choosing to forgo the
ubiquitous surgical masks. Businesses and citizens alike are
anxiously awaiting the GOM's decision, likely to be made May 4, on
whether to continue the school and business closures.


11. (U) TRANSPORTATION
--------------

This has been an extremely quiet long weekend for airlines operating
in Mexico. Flag carriers Aeromexico and Mexicana are now beginning
to feel the pinch, and both firms are cancelling domestic flights -
reducing the frequency of operations between cities but not
discontinuing service. Their international routes are in even worse
shape. Mexicana managed to repatriate customers stranded in Havana,
due to the suspension of flights by the Cuban government. Following
Minister Espinosa's public comments and considerable diplomatic
pressure, flights to Buenos Aires will restart May 4.


12. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE
--------------

The total shipment of 100,000 personal protection kits dispatched by
USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) arrived in
Mexico City on May 2 - there had earlier been some confusion as to
whether or not it was a partial shipment. OFDA will coordinate the
distribution of the kits (an estimated donation of almost 1 million
USD) with the GOM authorities.

BASSETT