SITREP 8 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001229

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA,
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES)
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER)
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 8 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico


1. (U) SUMMARY:
--------------

At a press conference on May 1, Secretary of Health Cordova
announced that the GOM has confirmed 358 cases of H1N1 and 15
deaths. The GOM will process 500 additional cases in its labs
today. Embassy Mexico will be open for normal business on May 6,
but has suspended non-emergency public services until May 11.



2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS:
--------------

-- President Calderon and Foreign Affairs Secretary Espinosa
personally received an airplane from China with medical supplies
valued in USD 5 million.

--The Inter-American Development Bank announced that it will lend
Mexico USD 3 billion to cushion the economy from the impact of the
H1N1 Influenza outbreak. The peso appreciated .5 percent to 13.77
at this news.



3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS:
-------------- --------------

Nothing new to report.



4. (SBU) STATISTICS:
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:
At a press conference on May 1, the Secretary of Health announced
that the GOM has confirmed 358 cases of H1N1 and 15 deaths. Of the
15 dead:
--11 were in the Federal District, 2 in the State of Mexico; one in
Oaxaca and one in Tlaxcala;
--11 were female and 4 were male;
--9 0f the 15 were between 15 and 40 years old.

The GOM will process 500 additional cases in its labs today.

The families of 86 confirmed H1N1 victims have been visited by
doctors.

The government has distributed 36,000 doses of Osetamivir, 11,000 in
the Federal District.


STATE GOVERNMENT:

NOTE: Below is based on press reports and represents best available
data at this time on distribution of cases among states.
Discrepancies exist between state and federal data.

KEY: Column one - probable cases; Column 2 - cases with atypical
pneumonia; Column 3 - deaths reported by state governments; Column 4
- deaths reported by federal government; ND - no data.


Auguascalientes 81, 43, 3, 0
Baja 6, 0, 0, 3
Baja sur 0, 0, 0, ND
Campeche 1, 0, 0, ND
Chiapas 0, 0, 0, ND
Chihuahua 3, 0, 0, ND
Coahuila 37, 0, 0, ND
Colima 0, 1, 0, ND
D.F. 115, 89,28, 51
Durango 25, 0, 0, ND
EDOMEX 64, 76, 9, 16
Guanajuato 14, 0, 0, ND
Guerrero 19, 14, 1, ND
Hidalgo 188, 32, 0, ND
Jalisco 40, 0, 0, ND
Michoacan 83, 29, 0, 1

MEXICO 00001229 002 OF 005


Morelos 20, 4, 0, ND
Nayarit 11, 0, 0, ND
Nuevo Leon 37, 0, 1, ND
Oaxaca 70, 1, 1, 2
Puebla 74, 7, 0, ND
Queretaro 76, 5, 0, 1
Quintana Roo 14, 2, 1, ND
San Luis Potosi 121, 14, 14,14
Sinaloa 0, 0, 0, ND
Sonora 0, 0, 0, ND
Tabasco 54, 0, 0, ND
Tampaulipas 11, 37, 1, 1
Tlaxcala 390, 43, 0, ND
Veracruz 69, 1, 0, ND
Yucatan 124, 0, 0, ND
Zacatecas 12, 0, 0, ND

Total 1763 398 59 92



5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES:
--------------

To date, Embassy Mexico has tested 12 staff or EFMs for H1N1
influenza with one text showing a probable case. Seven staff or
EFMs have been treated with antiviral medication. The health unit
reports a slight increase in the number of patients coming for
treatment. Patients coming to the health unit have been mildly ill.




6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES:
--------------

Nothing new to report.



7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES:
--------------

The Embassy will be open for normal business May 6, but
non-emergency public services will remain closed until May 11.

Embassy Mexico will activate a call center if Embassy Mexico
switchboard operators receive more than 1,000 calls per day.
However, call numbers appear to be declining. We received roughly
110 calls within the past 24 hours. Consulates report a low level
of H1N1 related calls.

Merida: Post released an updated Warden Message on April 30. Post
assisted one USC who is hospitalized in Cancun with suspect
symptoms. The hospital diagnosed him with pneumonia but his hotel
has refused to readmit him until he presents test results showing he
is free of H1N1 influenza. The test results are expected by
tomorrow morning. (more details by separate e-mail to CONS and
CA/OCS)

Monterrey: Post distributed an updated Warden Message on April 30.




8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES:
--------------

CIUDAD JUAREZ: According to the Chihuahua Secretary of Health there
are now 7 possible cases in Chihuahua and 8 in El Paso.

GUADALAJARA: State of Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez Marquez
announced that state officials would establish checkpoints for
sanitary control on the 5 federal highways and 18 state roads
linking Jalisco with neighboring states. These checkpoints would
begin on May 1 and be in effect for an undetermined time. State
education officials are considering whether schools should remain
closed through May 11. No decision has yet been announced.

While public offices are closed, many businesses remain open,
including stores and restaurants, as well as the public spaces used

MEXICO 00001229 003 OF 005


for "tianguis" or open air markets. The National Chamber of
Commerce of Guadalajara (Canaco) reported that since the beginning
of the epidemic, the metropolitian zone of Guadalajara has lost an
estimated 600 million pesos, or a drop of 60% of total member sales.
The agriculture secretary announced that in Jalisco some 250
thousand pigs that should have been sold to producers remain unsold
because of a drop in demand for pork. Jalisco has 1200 pork
producers that account for 30 thousand jobs.

HERMOSILLO: No new cases of H1N1 have been reported in the
Hermosillo consular district. One possible case tested negative.
The Arizona ports of entry are reporting moderate traffic, not
inconsistent with an average holiday weekend. Duty officer received
no calls about the H1N1 influenza over the past 24 hours.

MERIDA: There are no confirmed case of H1N1 in Yucatan or Campeche.
There are reports of 2 positive cases of Influenza A in Quintana Roo
but the cases have not been confirmed positive for H1N1.
In Yucatan, the State has instituted daily press briefings and will
increase public outreach. The Secretary of Health noted that there
are sufficient vaccines for the population but that pharmacies
require a prescription to avoid panic buying leading to depletion of
supplies. Local press is starting to focus more on the economic
impact to the tourism sector, particularly in Cancun and the Riviera
Maya.

MONTERREY: Campaign rallies for the Nuevo Leon gubernatorial race
have been postponed, and the campaigns for federal Congressional
seats may be postponed as well. The San Luis Potosi government
closed nightclubs, restaurants, bars and health clubs, and is
disinfecting public buses. The San Luis Potosi public and private
hospitals have supplies of anti-viral medication. In Coahuila, the
government is distributing 500,000 face masks, and Tamiflu is also
available. Media reporting continues to be straightforward on the
number of suspected cases, the government's request to close
non-essential businesses and the reaction of business leaders.

In Nuevo Leon, many employers have closed administrative offices,
but production lines continue operating. In SLP, the secretary of
economy agreed that it is not feasible to close many businesses, and
suggested that the private sector take steps (washing hands etc) to
prevent spreading the flu. In Durango the large employers
association Canicintra only agreed to close May 1, although 6,000
non essential Durango government employees are off until May 6. In
Coahuila and Zacatecas the governments recommended postponing
parties at restaurants, hotels and closing bars and bullfights, but
it was not clear if those recommendations are being followed.
Traffic was light but supermarkets remained open and well stocked.


NUEVO LAREDO: The public is calm and some citizens continue to
wear face masks. Local media reports 9 suspected cases of H1N1 in
Nuevo Laredo but still no confirmed cases. The consulate received
two calls from prospective applicants inquiring when the Consulate
will resume services to the public. Restaurants and grocery stores
remain open to the public.

TIJUANA: Baja California and Baja California Sur continue to report
there are no confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza. Baja California
state health officials are reporting that there are ten hospitalized
patients with symptoms of H1N1 flu. Three of the patients are
showing improvement and the other seven are in stable condition.
Twelve samples have been sent to Mexico City for testing. The
Catholic Church announced the suspension of mass for all churches in
Tijuana Archdiocese but all scheduled events (baptisms and weddings)
would continue.
The San Ysidro and Otay Mesa Ports of Entry are reporting lighter
than expected border crossings for a holiday weekend. Baja
California has begun monitoring all entry points--land border
crossings, ports, and highways (airport monitoring had already been
implemented) to try to minimize the entry of infected persons. The
Consulate received two calls related to the flu from travelers
concerned that airports would be closed or they would not be allowed
to return.



9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS:

MEXICO 00001229 004 OF 005


-------------- --------------

May 1 coverage f the H1N1 influenza in the Mexican press focused on
the increase in the number of reported cases. According to Health
Secretary Cordova there are 358 confirmed cases and 15 deaths from
the H1N1 virus in Mexico. In a press conference Secretary Cordova
stated, "It is important to highlight that the government's plan is
working... and that it has allowed us to keep this situation within
controllable levels." The Secretary also pointed out that Mexico has
collaborated closely with U.S. and Canadian health authorities as
well as the WHO. A radio newscast from Radio Imagen reported that
the U.S. installed a laboratory in Mexico where a group of
scientists can diagnose the H1N1 virus, and that 11 more scientists
from the CDC will travel to Mexico to train local personnel.

Newspaper Excelsior's front page story recounts how Mexico City
residents are facing discrimination in other states and how Mexicans
have faced the same in other countries for fear of the disease.
There are also reports that there are 8 new confirmed cases in
Europe. Also prominent in the media is the story that a member of
President Obama's advance team that came to Mexico was showing
symptoms of possible H1N1 infection.

Several outlets also mentioned the European Union's rejection of
France's proposal to suspend flights to and from Mexico. Mexico's
Secretary of Transport and Communications guaranteed that all
transport services were guaranteed and that his agency is in contact
with his counterparts from other nations to maintain the highest
security and health standards in air travel.

A poll by Consulta Mitofsky shows that 75% of Mexicans believe that
the government has taken appropriate actions. Jose Carreno, former
Washington correspondent for El Universal, stated in a Radio Formula
newscast, "These figures show that the government's communication
strategy has been effective." The same poll shows that 45% also
believe the government is withholding information. Analysts point
out that there has been a huge amount of rumors circulating the
internet - including that the H1N1 was developed as a weapon, and
that the outbreak is meant to help pharmaceutical companies.
Reforma's Sergio Sarmiento wrote, "The capacity to create conspiracy
theories is amazing... but speculation and deceit can be very
dangerous for society." Excelsior's Jorge Fernandez Menendez added,
"We must dismiss all these conspiracy theories because they also
alter our perception of the reality and undermine institutional
solutions and society's effort to cope with what is going on."



10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

The Bank of Mexico, Ministry of Finance and a private Mexican bank
predict that the Mexican economy will contract by between 4 and 5%
in 2009 before the impact of the H1N1 flu outbreak is taken into
account. All agree that the emergency actions (the temporary
closure of restaurants in Mexico City and the temporary suspension
of non-essential activities in the public and private sectors
throughout Mexico) may reduce the GDP by an additional .3 to .5%.


According to the press, the Mexican Hotel Association reports hotels
in Mexico City have an occupancy rate of between 8% and 10%, and
that 90% of reservations for the long weekend have been cancelled.
The industry expects to lose about 100,000 jobs as a result of the
outbreak.

Coparmex, a union that represents about 4.8 million workers, reports
absenteeism has been between 1 and 3%. Most of the employees on
leave are parents who stayed home for childcare reasons.

Many multinational companies, such as Pepsico, Dupont, IBM and
Phillip Morris have implemented emergency plans. Most of them are
allowing employees to telecommute.



11. (U) TRANSPORTATION
--------------


MEXICO 00001229 005 OF 005


The Mexican Secretary for Communications and Transportation and his
U.S. counterpart, Secretary of Transportation LaHood, held a second
conversation regarding the pandemic the morning of 1 May. OST at
USDOT will have details of the conversation.

MASS TRANSIT: Directors for civil protection at the Mexico City
(STC) and Washington, DC (WMATA) subway systems spoke 1 May via
Embassy conference call. Discussion focused on exchange of pandemic
plans, precautions in place in the STC system, and contingency
measures to guarantee operations. Mexico City ridership appears
steady at 2-2.5 million riders per day (50% off normal) and
screening is in place. STC screeners found 3 "probable" influenza
cases this week and referred them to hospitals. STC officials do
not know the final disposition of the referred cases. Teams
equipped with hand sanitizer rove the network cleaning passengers'
hands. For employees, a liberal leave policy is in place and
absenteeism is approximately 30%. The system's tripwire to
reconsider reducing service is a new spike in flu cases. Rather
than full closure, the proposed response would restrict crowds in
stations and volume on trains (a full train can hold 1,800
passengers).

AIR TRAVEL: Outbound passenger screening is up and running at
Mexico's major airports and is not delaying flight departures.
Inbound load factors continue at low levels while outbound flights
are well-sold for now. With few passengers arriving, foreign
nationals in Mexico advancing their departures, and few Mexican
nationals traveling abroad, a pass through effect should kick in
within a week, resulting in reduced outbound passenger loads.
Continental became the first U.S. airline to announce it would cut
capacity on Mexico routes, by culling flights by its 50-passenger
Embraer regional jets. The move brings capacity in line with demand
and does not come unexpected. Continental operates the most
extensive U.S. network in Mexico. Other U.S. airlines may also
reduce flight frequency, but intend to maintain ample service. As a
basis against which to measure cuts, the standard daily flight count
between the U.S. and Mexico approaches 300 flights in each
direction.


12. (U) US ASSISTANCE
--------------

USG response to date includes:
--the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has deployed 17 technical
experts to Mexico to date who are working with their counterparts
and international experts to investigate and prevent the spread of
influenza and to consult with Mexico on community mitigation
strategies; (We expect more CDC experts to arrive over the coming
days)
--USAID has donated $5 million to the World Health Organization and
the Pan American Health Organization;
--the Department of Health and Human Services provided 400,000
courses of Tamiflu;
--the Department of Agriculture has provided technical assistance
for animal testing.
--Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) has approved the
shipment of 100,000 personal protection kits (PPE) similar to the
Northcom January 2009 donation. The value of the PPEs themselves
is $875,000 and the airfreight is $100,000, or a total value of
$975,000. The PPE shipment is scheduled to arrive may 2. OFDA and
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have coordinated delivery and
customs clearance.


13. (SBU) US ASSISTANCE CONTINUED
--------------

The HHS donation of 400,000 courses of Tamiflu was delivered to GOM
officials on May 1. Embassy Mexico did not publicly announce the
donation at the request of Los Pinos, the Mexican NSC equivalent.

BASSETT