SITREP 6 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 MEXICO 001209 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS; STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DPPPC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX SUBJECT: SITREP 6 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: -------------- April 29 GOM estimates of confirmed H1N1 cases rose to 99, with eight cases resulting in death. Additionally, Secretary of Health Cordova announced that non-critical federal government offices will close from May 1 thru May 5. Essential government services will remain operational. ¶2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS: -------------- FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: On April 29, Secretary of Health Cordova announced that federal government offices will close from May 1 thru May 5. Critical employees will continue to work and essential government services will still be provided. States/municipalities were encouraged to adopt similar measures. The private sector is also encouraged to suspend non-critical activities. Supermarkets, drug stores, telecom, banks, gas stations, and hotels will remain open. Restaurants may remain open as long as they are not in closed spaces. -- The Public Education Secretariat (SEP) created a guide, &What a School Can Do To Face Influenza?8 and it will be distributed to all grade levels. Information on designing an emergency plan before returning to school, establishing screening procedures to detect probable cases of H1N1 flu, and other measures are included. -- A team of 14 veterinarians and health officials from the Mexican veterinary service (SENASICA) and public health agency (COFEPRIS) is inspecting the La Gloria hog farm owned by Smithfield, near Veracruz, and is taking samples to determine if any swine at the farm are infected with H1N1 influenza. A Smithfield company veterinarian is with the government team. Results of the investigation will be reported to the APHIS office in Mexico City. -- The Mexican veterinary service (SENASICA) circulated a letter from the International Organization for Animal Health (OIE) to foreign embassies attesting to the lack of any link between the A/H1N1 virus and consumption of pork. -- Official requests for assistance were made to the governments of the U.S., China, and Japan for stocks of Tamiflu. According to local press reports, China has offered $5M: $1M in cash, and $4M in &humanitarian assistance.8 MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: On August 29, Mexico City Mayor highlighted that the local government had implemented 100% of the measures of the maximum alert and defended his decision to maintain the closure of restaurants, bars, and other areas. He rejected the implementation of other restrictive measures including the cancellation of public transportation. The city government also began distributing anti-bacterial gel to metro (subway) users. STATE OF MEXICO: On April 28, Governor Enrique Pena Nieto announced that there will be 122 mobile medical units that will give medical attention in the largest municipalities. -- The Health Secretary said that the state would have 15,000 new lab tests kits that will allow them to detect Influenza A and H1N1 flu. The old test kits yeilded results in 48 hours but the new test kits will provide results much faster. Finally, he said the State had sufficient retrovirals. -- In general The State of Mexico, he has take similar measures as to those implemented in DF and the Federal Government, except for shutting down commercial establishments and restaurants. MEXICO 00001209 002 OF 007 ¶3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS: -------------- -------------- Nothing new to report. ¶4. (SBU) STATISTICS: -------------- -- At a press conference on the evening of April 29, the Secretary of Health reported that there are now 99 confirmed H1N1 cases. Of these, 8 have resulted in deaths. Of the total confirmed cases, 83 are in D.F.; 13 in the State of Mexico; 1 in Colima; 1 in Oaxaca; and 1 in Veracruz. Note: We continue to have problems obtaining consistent government statistical data. End Note. -- The number of hospital beds available/filled and daily admittance to hospitals from 24 - 27 April: INER hospital reports 61.8% occupied, Hospital General de Mexico 71.7%, and ISSTE Zaragoza 86.1%. ¶5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES: -------------- -- The Embassy issued an additional 30 masks to U.S. direct hire employees, their families, and locally employed staff. -- Two additional CDC visitors arrived in Mexico City Embassy April 29 and 1 is expected to arrive April 30 for a total of 12 CDC visitors in country. -- The Embassy set up a call center with 3 phones and 3 computers. Operation for the call center will begin April 30 if demand warrants. Callers can either dial direct or access the center through the main embassy greeting (press 1 for influenza information, then press 0 to speak to a call center staff). -- The Embassy conducted a warden check and a radio check is planned for the weekend. -- Guidelines for telecommuting were distributed and employees were encouraged to take liberal leave. -- An EAC meeting and a town hall meeting will be convened on April 30 and employees will be dismissed at noon. -- Absenteeism remains very low. ¶6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES: -------------- Embassy continues to experience absenteeism among local guards and police, but the number of guards/police remains adequate. RSO will continue to monitor the activity of Embassy guards and police closely. ¶7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES: -------------- -- U.S. EMBASSY: The Embassy will issue an updated warden message April 30, the sixth in seven days. The message will refer to WHO,s April 29 announcement, raising the pandemic alert to Phase 5. Embassy Mexico's call center received approximately 600 H1N1-flu related calls on April 29, slightly more than April ¶28. Roughly half of the calls were questions about rescheduling visas. Embassy is preparing contingency plans MEXICO 00001209 003 OF 007 for a call center this weekend, but do not plan to stand it up unless the numbers of calls per day to the operators exceed 1000. Current plans are to add more operators. One emergency visa case was interviewed and issued April 29. The American Citizen Services section experienced a normal day with 30 passport applications and 9 emergencies. -- CONSULATE, CIUDAD JUAREZ: IV operations finished processing applicants on April 29. The no-show rate for IV applicants was within the normal range. IV operations will be suspended from April 30 to May 8. All IV applicants with appointments scheduled on these dates will be rescheduled for June 5th, 8th, and 9th and will receive a new appointment via regular mail. -- CONSULATE, GUADALAJARA: ACS handled approximately half of their regularly scheduled appointments today. The remainders were &no-shows.8 The majority of applicants requested emergency passports, but there is no sign that the Amcit community is fleeing Mexico en masse. The volume of Amcit calls has also dropped in comparison to yesterday. The Visa Unit handled eight emergency cases. -- CONSULATE, NOGALES: Visa services continue suspended until May 6. ACS services continue with limited service for emergencies. Post reached out to newspapers to notify the public of limited services and to inform them of how to reach the consular section should emergencies arise. A warden message was issued and the website was updated. -- U.S. CONSULATE, HERMOSILLO: NIV Chief reported that people are calling and inquiring as to the status of appointments on May 6. -- U.S. CONSULATE, MERIDA: Consulate received a REPORT from an AMCIT of a doctor attempting to charge an excessive amount for H1N1 screening. We are currently working with the Secretary of Health from each state to advise AMCITs of a procedure and number to contact should they become concerned of infection. Consulate management is preparing projects for CONOFFs should normal services remain closed through next week. -- U.S. CONSULATE, MONTERREY: The ACS section has continued to receive 15-20 calls per day, primarily to inquire if the border is closed or about visa appointments for Mexican friends. ¶8. (U) BORDER AND CONSULATE ISSUES: -------------- -- CIUDAD JUAREZ: Municipal authorities in Chihuahua and Ciudad Juarez launched radio, television, and print spots to inform the public of the latest information related to the H1N1 outbreak. Municipal and State authorities continue to distribute brochures at airports, bus stations and highway checkpoints. The Juarez Mayor's Office told Post that it printed and plans to distribute 200,000 brochures. Chihuahua State authorities issued a recommendation to all public transport operators that they wear masks and use gloves when transporting passengers. The Chihuahua Delegate for the National Chamber of Industry (CANACINTRA) stated in a press conference that the commercial sector supports the GOM,s measures to contain the spread of the swine flu virus. Hotel managers in Ciudad Juarez expect that the suspension of consular services will reduce their occupancy rates by an average of 30 percent. The most recent statistics available MEXICO 00001209 004 OF 007 to Post show that business generated by the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez accounts for more than 70 percent of the city's tourism revenue. Post Management Officer (MO) continues to distribute masks, hand-washing sanitizer and Clorox wipes at all remaining active immigrant visa and ACS interview windows at Post. Several local suppliers told the MO that they currently do not have masks and cleaning supplies available for purchase due to the swine flu outbreak. The suppliers expect to receive a shipment next week. The MO is confident that Post has sufficient stock of these items. -- GUADALAJARA: Nearly all public activities have been suspended. Guadalajara,s zoo is now closed to the public, and the popular Sunday &Via Recreativa8 closure of a major avenue to facilitate biking and strolling has been suspended until further notice. Aguascalientes State has canceled the remainder of the San Marcos Fair ) Mexico's largest State Fair, as a precautionary measure. RSO reports a decline in criminal incidents throughout Guadalajara. No incidents of &panic buying8 of supplies have been reported. Several cruise lines have canceled Mexico port calls. This action will further damage the economies of cruise ports such as Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo, and Mazatlan. --HERMOSILLO: The Consulate General convened an EAC meeting April 29. RSO reports that Post cascade emergency notification drill was carried out with a high level of participation. Local newspapers are reporting that the month-long livestock exposition (EXPOGAN) has suspended activities until May 7, due to lack of attendance and concern over H1N1. -- NOGALES: Post hosted a meeting of the local Integrated Emergency Management Group on 04/28. The group consisted of Mexican and U.S. health authorities as well as County Emergency first responders from both sides of the Nogales border. The meeting adjourned in a very positive note agreeing to meet again next week. -- MONTERREY: Nuevo Leon Governor Gonzalez Paras closed some state offices attending the public, suspended Friday's Labor Day celebrations, and urged people not to attend movie theaters or other closed areas. Several movie theaters had already closed due to lack of patrons. In addition, 250 people held in prison for administrative irregularities were released from four prisons due to the risk of the spread of H1N1 flu. Several of the PAN and PRI candidates have canceled election events. Finally, our contacts expect local schools to remain closed past May 6. The governments in the other states have also reacted. In San Luis Potosi (SLP),the PAN and PRI parties have canceled campaign rallies until May 6. In Durango, only one member of the family is permitted to visit the patient in some hospitals. Durango has also closed some public venues such as the zoo, a pool and a park. In Zacatecas, Governor Garcia said that the pandemic had not hit Zacatecas, but the bishop suspended weekend mass services. Many people in Nuevo Leon are staying home, as restaurants, movie houses and bars are fairly empty. A good percentage of people are beginning to wear face masks. Post will hold a town hall meeting on April 29 to keep the Consulate community informed and to answer any questions. -- TIJUANA: Wait times to cross from Mexico to the US have drastically dropped from an average of 2-3 hours to an average wait time of less than an hour currently. News media and public officials have expressed great alarm over the MEXICO 00001209 005 OF 007 economic impact that the current crisis is having on the region. It is estimated that business has been reduced by as much as 50%, and hotel occupancy has fallen by approximately 35%. -- MERIDA: Archeological sites and cruise ship ports have been temporarily closed. The Secretary of tourism for Quintana Roo stated hotel occupancy is currently down 26% and they are seeing many charter cancellations from Europe. Consulate staff and EFMs remain calm. The MO and the CLO have been providing notices and updates to staff that keep them informed and their moral up. --MATAMOROS: Until yesterday, traffic from Brownsville, TX to Matamoros last week was normal, but today has decreased 50%. The 22-month old child who died in Houston was a Mexican citizen on vacation from Mexico City to Brownsville. She landed April 2 in Matamoros and became ill; she was transported to Houston where she died. Post has one EFM and one officer exhibiting flu-like symptoms. Streets and main squares are less populated and there are Emergency Services handing out information throughout the city. Post will continue to monitor the situation. ¶9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS: -------------- -------------- On April 29, coverage of the H1N1 outbreak continued focusing on the economic consequences of the disease particularly because the Mexico City government ordered the temporary suspension of dine-in service at restaurants. Most newspapers reported an estimated loss of US$70 million daily as a consequence of this measure. Business-oriented daily El Economista editorialized in its headline, &Is this necessary?8 showing pictures of empty restaurants. &Business sector furious,8 added newspaper Milenio in its headline. Reaction to the measure was very negative among opinion makers. Economic expert Sergio Sarmiento wrote in his daily column in newspaper Reforma, &Closing down the Mexico City restaurants was a very unwise decision that could have huge consequences ... especially because the federal government asked local governments not to take measures that significantly affected economic activity.8 Reforma columnist Manuel Jauregui added, &The measure does not realistically contribute to fighting the outbreak and it represents a blow against an already weak economy.8 The media is also reporting statements by politicians, officials and commentators who suggest that it would be wise to postpone the start of the midterm elections campaigns ) scheduled for this Sunday. Other important items reported included the detection of new cases throughout the world and the first reported death in the U.S. of a Mexican infant. On April 29 at around 3PM central time, news broke in the electronic media that the WHO raised the pandemic alert to level 5. Most reports have been very cautious, avoiding sensationalism. Reports also highlighted that at this point no borders will be closed. ¶10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT: -------------- MACROECONOMIC IMPACT: At the August 29 press conference, Secretary of Finance Agustin Carstens said the H1N1 outbreak will have a negative impact on the economy. The magnitude of the impact will depend on the duration of the epidemic and the size of the outbreak. The tourism sector has been the most immediately affected. Recovery is expected to be fast once the situation is over. Carstens explained that there are 6.3 billion pesos available in a catastrophic fund to be used immediately to address the health crisis. Caldeorn instructed Hacienda to release the fund to other Secretariats for expenses related to the flu. There are no budgetary restrictions to address this event, MEXICO 00001209 006 OF 007 which is a priority for the GOM. Carstens calculates they have sufficient resources including the World Bank loan. U.S. BUSINESSES IN MEXICO: Mission Mexico convened a conference call with the American Chamber and heads of various U.S. businesses operating in Mexico, including from the energy, financial, transportation, and insurance sectors. The businesses have followed the lead of the GOM, discouraging meetings, limiting travel, and encouraging work from home. They expressed a certain frustration with the lack of accurate information and trying to plan ahead, not knowing how long the business closures and other preventive measures will be necessary. Commercial activity continues with no supply challenges at the present time. Nationwide and at the border, the distribution and product transport systems are still running well. The representative of a major financial services company noted they had seen a very slight drop in charges over the weekend in Mexico City, with a surge on Sunday mostly due to bulk purchasing at supermarkets. Parties agreed to schedule another conference call for Wednesday, May 6. PORK INDUSTRY: The Mexican press reports an 80-percent drop in pork consumption as ill-informed consumers avoid pork, thinking it is a potential source of infection. April 30 the Secretariat of Agriculture (SAGARPA) will discuss a request from Mexican pork producers to shut down pork imports due to the Mexican swine industry's economic distress. Pork producers are suffering from the severe dropoff in demand. The Mexican meat industry association, COMECARNE, is calling for a change of the popularized term "swine flu" to something else, and reports that demand is down even for pre-cooked and processed pork products. ¶11. (U) TRANSPORTATION: -------------- FLIGHTS: Cuba and Argentina became the first countries to suspend flights to and from Mexico on 28 April. Peru moved similarly on April 29. Several Canadian airlines have also halted service to some or all Mexican stations. Rumors the European Union may suspend flights to Mexico led to confusion among passengers with tickets already purchased, according to station chiefs at the Mexico City International Airport (AICM). Several major tour operators have cancelled all Mexico itineraries and Carnival cruise ships are now skipping Mexico ports of call. AIRPORT CONTROLS: Secretary of Communications and Transportation Molinar Horcasitas gathered airline managers on the evening of 28 April to announce augmented passenger screening measures at the six largest airports in country by international traveler volume (AICM, Cancun, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Tijuana, and Cabo),for both entering and exiting passengers. As of the evening of 29 April, preparations were underway at airports to launch screening the same day. All passengers will pass through a screening booth to undergo a visual inspection and complete a questionnaire. A temperature reading will also be taken, although uncertainty remains as to whether this will apply to all passengers or only those presenting symptoms upon visual inspection. AIRLINE PASSENGER VOLUMES: U.S. carriers REPORT growing declines in Mexico passenger arrivals, while outbound flights are holding steady. Some business and tourist travelers are moving up their departure dates to leave the country ahead of schedule. Continental, with 10-11 daily flights out of AICM, is considering consolidation of flights on its shuttle route to Houston. Mexican airlines REPORT less change in passenger volumes. Domestic routes are not showing the same declines as international routes. Aeromexico, which operates roughly 160 inbound and 160 outbound flights per day at AICM, is MEXICO 00001209 007 OF 007 cancelling 1-2 flights per day to consolidate passengers on lightly traveled routes. MASS TRANSIT: Mexico City,s Metro (subway) and Metrobus municipal mass transit systems continue to see volume off by 50%. For the heavily-used Metro system, this still amounts to 2.5 million passengers per day. Mexican armed forces are beginning to deploy to major Metro stations to assist Metro staff and police. Distribution of protective masks to passengers is ongoing at major stations. According to Metro officials, a new supply of 5 million masks destined for Metro and other mass transit modes is expected to arrive 30 April. The decision to close mass transit systems remains with Mayor Ebrard. Metro officials do not consider closure imminent. BASSETT Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT