SITREP 5 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001194

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS;
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR
MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR
CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DGPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 5 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY


1. (U) SUMMARY:
--------------

April 28 estimates of confirmed H1N1 cases and deaths remain
unchanged from April 27. On April 28, 2009, the Mayor of
Mexico City ordered the closure of all establishments where
large numbers of the public gather until May 6, including
restaurants, bars, discos, night clubs, cinemas, movie
theaters, theaters, gyms, and convention centers.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND CITY GOVERNMENT ACTIONS:
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:
--Navy Secretary Mariano Saynez offered the Navy's Hospital
of high specialty located in Mexico City. Saynez noted that
the Navy has trained physicians and nurses to face
emergencies such as the H1N1 flu. The hospital has a
capacity for 600 emergency cases. (Note: Anecdotal evidence
suggests that public and private hospitals in Mexico are
experiencing shortages of space as well as mechanical
ventilators. We are currently seeking firm statistics on
this. End Note.)
--The Health Secretariat announced they would dispatch rescue
teams of doctors nationwide in coordination with IMSS (the
National Social Security Institute),ISSTE (The State Social
Security Institute),and the Red Cross to reinforce measures
to prevent the spread of the virus.
--The Secretariat of Public Education (SEP) announced a
hotline to keep citizens informed on government actions and
decisions related to the H1N1 flu. Within Mexico City the
number is 3601-7599; if calling outside Mexico City, the
number is 01-800-288-6688.
--The Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit announced an
urgent fund to investigate the H1N1 virus. The amount of
this fund was not disclosed.

MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT:
-- On April 28, 2009, the Mayor of Mexico City ordered the
closure of all establishments where large numbers of the
public gather until May 6, including restaurants, bars,
discos, night clubs, cinemas, movie theaters, theaters, gyms,
and convention centers.
--Announced a fund of 150 million pesos in support for
families, workers, and business affected by the H1N1 flu.
--The city government distributed 5 million flyers and 850
thousand information announcements on the H1N1 flu, as well
as one million masks throughout the city.


3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS:
-------------- --------------

-- Many private organizations continue to cancel events in
support of the GOM's recommendations against large public
gatherings.

-- The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)
established an emergency committee on the H1N1 flu headed by
Rector Jose Narro, former Undersecretary of Health and
Director of the Medical School at UNAM.


4. (SBU) STATISTICS:
--------------

Emboffs accompanying the CDC team in Mexico City report
updated H1N1 flu case estimates of:

--1324 suspected cases
--84 suspected death cases
--26 confirmed cases
--7 confirmed deaths


At a press conference on the evening of April 28, the

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Secretariat of Health reported:

-- There were 2498 potential influenza cases reported in
April. Of these, there were 159 deaths, but only 7 confirmed
as H1N1 flu ) all of which were in Mexico City. The GOM
will have the final test results for the other 152 death
cases within the next 24 hours.

--There are currently 1311 people hospitalized with severe
influenza. Out of these, 26 are confirmed H1N1 flu cases.

--The number of reported cases have decreased in the past
four days.

We continue to have problems obtaining consistent government
statistical data.



5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES:
--------------

The Embassy issued approximately 552 masks to U.S. direct
hire employees, their families, and locally employed staff.
The Heath Unit has sent specimens for 8 patients with
flu-like symptoms to the U.S. for testing. One specimen
result has returned probable for the H1N1 virus; results of
the others are still pending.

PCS travel to post continues as normal.



6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES:
--------------

Although Embassy security was adequate, RSO noted a
significant uptick in absenteeism of local guards and police
on April 28. RSO will continue to monitor the activity of
Embassy guards and police closely.



7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES:
--------------

-- U.S. EMBASSY: The Embassy issued an updated warden
message April 28, the fifth in five days, and the U.S.
Department of State revised the travel alert for Mexico. The
message refers to the government of Mexico City's ordered
closure of all establishments where large numbers of the
public gather until May 6.

Embassy Mexico received approximately 550 H1N1-flu related
calls on April 28, a dramatic increase compared to 120 on
April 27. Most of the callers were inquiring about the
schedule for Consular Services (non-essential public services
were suspended on April 27) and travel restrictions to the
U.S.

-- CONSULATE, CIUDAD JUAREZ: Non-immigrant visa operations
at the Consulate General will be suspended until May 6th.
Immigrant visa operations are suspended from April 30 through
May 8th. Applicants that are impacted by these suspensions
will be notified through the Consulate's website and the call
center. Consular services for U.S. citizens will be limited
to emergency assistance and to citizenship applications
(passports and consular reports of birth abroad, or CRBA).
Notarial and other routine services will not be available;
anyone with passport or CRBA appointments is encouraged, but
not required, to reschedule to a later date. Additionally,
Federal Benefits Units are requesting all persons to postpone
interviews on Social Security claims.

-- U.S. CONSULATE GENERAL, GUADALAJARA. Despite posting a
notice on the consulate website and issuing a press release
that received ample local coverage, approximately 200 NIV

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applicants arrived for their previously scheduled
appointments. They claimed to have not known about the
closure. Those who arrived were processed. There were no
reports of emergency travel, and there was no spike in
emergency appointment requests. Nevertheless, the section
answered approximately 80 calls from applicants concerned
about rescheduling their appointments. ACS fielded
approximately 60 travel inquiries April 27, and April 28 they
responded to approximately 100. The majority of calls today
were Amcits asking if they should return to the US. ACS has
maintained their normal appointment system, managing
approximately 60-70 cases per day. Today, 90 percent of those
cases requested emergency passports or CRBAs for immediate
travel. Normally, they process 5-10 emergency requests per
day. GDL's consular district has no reports of confirmed
swine flu cases.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, NOGALES: Visa services have been
suspended until May 6th and ACS services are limited to
emergencies. Employee absenteeism is within normal limits.
On April 27, the ACS chief addressed a group of 125
Maquiladora Association managers to discuss travel conditions
and consular operations during the health alert. On April
28, post hosted a meeting of the local Integrated Emergency
Management Group to facilitate communications between local
Mexican health authorities and Municipal and County first
responders from the Nogales area.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, TIJUANA: Visa operations are suspended
until May 6th.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, HERMOSILLO: NIV Chief confirmed that visa
services have been canceled until May 6th, and will not
reopen until Post receives further guidance.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, MERIDA: A small number of visa applicants
arrived this morning and were upset when turned away. Post
has received an elevated number of calls and e-mails
concerning travel to resort destinations. The Consular
section prepared language for a recorded phone and e-mail
message directing travelers to CDC's and State's Travel
Alerts. There is no notable increase in the number of Amcits
requesting services. Post has sent out protective masks and
gloves to their Consular Agent offices. Operations remain
open, however, post will continue to monitor the situation
and adjust accordingly.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, MONTERREY: The Consular Section suspended
all NIV services effective April 28, though
exceptions were made for some applicants who had already been
enrolled at the ASC (offsite Applicant Services Center) April
27 or earlier. All interview windows have hand sanitizers
and face masks are available for all consular staff, guards
and greeters. ACS received only 15-20 phone calls from
Americans in the consular district; all had questions
regarding either a rumored possible border closure or how to
reschedule NIV interviews for family members or friends.



8. (U) BORDER AND CONSULATE ISSUES:
--------------

-- CIUDAD JUAREZ: The Governor of Chihuahua announced on
April 27 the cancellation of all public events and schools at
least until May 6. Select business establishments, such as
discotheques and movie theaters, are also closed state-wide
during this same period. Restaurants will remain open. In
Ciudad Juarez, Mayor Ferriz announced that municipal
authorities set up Mobile Medical Units to treat individuals
presenting possible symptoms of swine flu and to distribute
medical information at the Ciudad Juarez airport, bus
stations, toll booth checkpoints and community centers.
There is currently no plan to shut down public transportation
or other businesses. On April 28, the Consul General held a

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town hall meeting with Consulate staff and family members to
provide information about the H1N1 outbreak and answer
questions.
-
-- GUADALAJARA: On April 27, the Governor of Jalisco
announced that, in addition to nationally mandated school
closings, bars, nightclubs, theaters and restaurants would
also be closed. Most businesses are complying. Transportation
and tourism contacts do not have specific numbers to reflect
the impact of the outbreak, but they expect services to
diminish and tourism revenues to reduce as a result. The
state government suspended all public cultural activities.

-- NOGALES: Public reaction has been calm. There has been a
limited use of face masks in public. Border traffic volume
(north bound) at both Nogalas ports of entry is lighter-than
normal.

-- MERIDA: Supplies of masks, gloves, and hand sanitizers
are non-existent in Merida and post is hearing reports of
panic buying in Cancun. The governors of Campeche, Yucatan,
and Quintana Roo have canceled public meetings and events.
The governor of Yucatan will make a public statement on April
28 or 29 to pass information to consulates and businesses.
Consulate staff is not alarmed, but they are visibly
concerned. The CLO and MO have been sending information and
updates to keep EMFs informed of the latest developments. At
least two EMF's have opted to return to the states. The
consulate will be holding a town hall meeting today with EFMs
and staff to pass information and hear concerns. Protective
mask and gloves have been made available to staff, but no one
has opted to use them.

-- MONTERREY: The Nuevo Leon government has been proactive,
as Governor Gonzalez Paras closed all schools and day care
facilities on April 26, before the GOM nationwide order.
Pandemic preventive educational programs are being shown on
television, including the importance of washing hands and
using a surgical mask. The government has asked employers to
permit liberal leave policies, especially for mothers who
have stayed home with school aged kids. Airports and bus
terminals are supplying masks and all travelers are being
asked to fill out a questionnaire on their health. Anyone
presenting symptoms is asked to see a doctor or stay home.
Many in Nuevo Leon are staying home, as restaurants and bars
are fairly empty. There has been a marked decline in street
traffic and a 10% decline in air passengers. Private
businesses and government offices generally remain open,
although some employees have stayed home to care for their
children and some have canceled internal meetings.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, TIJUANA: State and local governments
within the district have canceled all public events,
including events related to International Children's Day and
Mother's Day. Post has received reports that some government
offices are reducing services, for example the Foreign
Relations Secretariat (SRE) has closed satellite offices in
Tijuana and Rosarito. The main SRE office in Tijuana remains
open for passport processing but allows only 7 people in the
waiting room at one time. Other large events have also been
voluntarily canceled. No other closures, such as public
transportation, stores or restaurants have been ordered at
this time


9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS:
-------------- --------------

Coverage of the swine flu outbreak on April 28 focused on the
World Health Organization raising the alert level to 4. All
newspapers featured the economic repercussions of the
outbreak, which included a fall of 3.34% in the Mexican stock
market's main indicator and the depreciation of the peso
versus the dollar. Headlines include: &Flu affects the whole
country8 (La Cronica); &Virus jumps to other countries8

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(El Universal); &Health Secretary: Outbreak in its most
critical stage8 (El Sol de Mexico); &Flu stops economic
recovery8 (El Economista); &WHO: On the threshold of
pandemic8 (La Jornada); &WHO raises alert level8
(Reforma). Many newspapers also feature stories of how the
U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic missions have limited their
services, and photos of Mexicans crowding grocery stores to
stock up in case &the city is shut down.8 Noteworthy items
in the electronic media are the travel alerts issued by the
Department of State and the European Union, and the reports
that CBP agents are strengthening inspection methods in the
U.S./Mexico border. Although most electronic media newscasts
have quoted Secretary Napolitano saying the border will not
be closed, a rumor stating otherwise has circulated through
some outlets. Media reaction continues to be mostly favorable
for President Calderon and the government actions, despite
some general criticism that the country is not well prepared
for an epidemic outbreak. &Our country is not prepared for
these things. But within all that, the reaction of the
Calderon administration has been excellent,8 stated Eduardo
Ruiz Healy, a well-known radio commentator.


10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------
Hotels: Occupancy rates at Mexico City hotels have fallen
rapidly. At hotels used regularly by the Embassy, average
occupancy is 20-30 percent. Cancellations by groups have
been especially severe and the mayor has effectively closed
down the hotel convention business.

Foreign Ministry: The Secretariat of Foreign Relations has
suspended protocol and diplomatic note traffic between
foreign missions and the ministry. A duty team does appear
to be on station to receive urgent traffic.

Transportation: A passenger who fell ill on US Airways 804
flight from Cancun to Philadelphia was hospitalized 27 April
in Philadelphia but released this morning after the hospital
determined she did not have H1N1. Some U.S. airlines that
fly to Mexico are beginning to report decreased load factors
on southbound flights, but note that U.S.-bound flights
remain full. Lufthansa is experiencing a larger drop on its
transatlantic route to Mexico, while passenger loads on
flights out of Mexico to Frankfurt are higher than normal.

Economic Impact: The stock exchange dropped slightly in
today's trading, -0.75%. The peso appreciated against the
dollar from 14.10 pesos to 13.98 pesos to the dollar.
Mexico's chamber of commerce estimates losses from business
closures and reduced sales will average 777 million pesos
(USD 55.5 million) daily, with the biggest losses felt by
hotels and restaurants. In annual terms, leading financial
institution Banamex predicts a 1 percent flu-effect
contraction in GDP.

Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
BASSETT