AU PEACE AND SECURITY RETREAT ON UNCONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE OF

UNCLAS MBABANE 000353

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

DEPT FOR AF/S (MHARRIS); AF/RSA; IO (USUN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AU PREL XA GU MA WZ
SUBJECT: AU PEACE AND SECURITY RETREAT ON UNCONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE OF
GOVERNMENT: PRELIMINARY REPORT


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The African Union Peace and Security Council
(PSC) held a retreat from December 17-19 in Mbabane, Swaziland, and
drafted a framework on AU response to unconstitutional change of
government. The framework reportedly is proceeding through the AU's
cataloguing process before release to member states for
consideration. Swazi Principal Secretary of the Ministry of
Defense, Dr. Kunene, told CDA that members wanted to adopt the
framework quickly, as they believe it will help with the situation
in Guinea. In addition, Dr. Kunene indicated that the PSC focused
on Madagascar's unconstitutional transfer of power and how the U.S.
might help resolve that crisis.

The Principal Secretary said the framework would focus on sanctions,
and therefore needed to be fully supported by the UNSC. He
indicated that the agreement will be presented to the full AU for
adoption during its upcoming summit in Addis. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The AU PSC held a retreat in Mbabane, Swaziland December
17-19, 2009. According to a preliminary discussion with Swazi
Ministry of Defense Principal Secretary Dr. John Kunene, the PSC
drafted a framework on response to unconstitutional change of
government in Africa, which is currently being put through the AU's
cataloguing process before it is released to member states for
consideration. He reported to Charge that members wanted to adopt
the framework quickly, as they believe it will help with the
critical situation in Guinea.


3. (SBU) Dr. Kunene indicated that discussions included
Madagascar's unconstitutional transfer of power and the new crisis
fomented by Rajoelina's replacement of the prime minister and
announcement regarding elections. Dr. Kunene indicated that
discussion included how the U.S. could help resolve that crisis, and
promised to meet the CDA "as soon as possible" after the holidays to
share this discussion in more detail.


4. (SBU) As of December 23, the Principal Secretary did not have a
copy of the framework agreement, but he stated that it would include
a system of increasing sanctions which would need to be fully
supported by the UNSC for implementation by countries outside the
AU. He believed that the AU would share the draft with UNSC members
for comments, and that the framework will be presented to the full
AU for adoption during its upcoming summit in Addis.


5. (SBU) Dr. Kunene was embarrassed that the Swazi government
initially postponed the opening ceremony for the PSC retreat. The
Swazi Ambassador to the AU told invited diplomatic observers that
the ceremony was postponed because "the appropriate" high-level
Swazi official was not present to present remarks. King Mswati III
is currently in seclusion from official duties for the annual
Incwala traditional ceremonies, and Prime Minister Barnabas Sibusiso
Dlamini, who was announced as the keynote speaker in the first
official invitation to the opening ceremony, was in Copenhagen for
COP15. Minister of Foreign Affairs Lutfo Dlamini was designated to
officially open the ceremonies, but his arrival from a trip outside
the country was delayed. Without regrouping the diplomatic corps,
deliberations were later halted to make arrangements to hold the
opening ceremony. Dr. Kunene said that this waste of time forced
deliberations on the framework to last late into the night.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: USAU or USUN may have earlier access than post to
this draft framework, but post will follow up and secure more
details from Dr. Kunene on the discussions. If AU members want to
be seen as taking non-military leadership to deal with
unconstitutional changes of government by the imposition of
sanctions, it will be interesting to see how the framework addresses
foreign assistance and non-AU trade to those countries. The AU may
request assistance to set up mechanisms to police such sanctions and
control increased smuggling operations that will develop in
response. One hopes that African officials already involved with
drug smugglers would not see sanctions as private black-market
commercial opportunities.

MORRISON