PRINCE DAVID: ECONOMIC COLLAPSE TO FORCE REFORMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MBABANE 000339 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014 TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR WZ SUBJECT: PRINCE DAVID: ECONOMIC COLLAPSE TO FORCE REFORMS IN 2010 MBABANE 00000339 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Earl Irving for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prince David Dlamini, half-brother to King Mswati III, a former Minister of Justice, and chairman of the constitutional commission that drafted Swaziland's current constitution, privately told Ambassador Irving that the pending economic breakdown in the kingdom would force political reforms. Worsening economic conditions, including rising unemployment, closures of factories, and the drop on Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) receipts, said Prince David, would compel government and royal family in 2010 to abandon the tinkhundla system (a method of electing representatives to Parliament from each of the 55 chieftancies; it currently does not allow parties to participate in elections) in the face of a progressive-led protest. The Prince, who is a member of the Queen Mother's advisory council, said King Mswati III is surrounded by "dishonest, uneducated people" who provide the King with bad advice. The Prince indicated that the King's inaction on reforming the system would not change even if powerful senior traditional leaders such as Prince Mahlaba and Prince Matitsela were to pass on. He recalled that in 1996 Presidents Nelson Mandela, Robert Mugabe, and Ketumile Masire met with King Mswati III in Pretoria to push the monarch towards democracy; the King stated he relied on his advisors for political issues and no subsequent change occurred. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On December 14, Prince David Dlamini, half-brother to King Mswati III, a former Minister of Justice, and chairman of the constitutional commission that drafted Swaziland's current constitution, privately told Ambassador Irving that the pending economic breakdown in the kingdom would force political reforms onto the system in 2010. He cited the recent departure of South African paper company SAPPI, the closure of factories in Matsapha (mostly textile companies connected to AGOA benefits),layoffs from a timber company in Piggs Peak, high levels of unemployment, and the coming drop in SACU receipts, as the local forces which would compel the government and royal family to abandon the tinkhundla system (a method of electing representatives to Parliament from each of the 55 chieftancies; it currently does not allow parties to participate in elections) in the face of a progressive-led protest. Prince David said that when the constitution was drafted, the plan had been that the tinkhundla system would be a temporary transitional measure, which would be removed once the country was prepared to reform the system of government. ¶3. (C) Regarding how the United States might best be able to encourage change towards a multi-party democracy, Prince David stated that asking policy leaders such as Prime Minister Barnabas Sibusiso Dlamini how Swaziland intended to tackle its economic woes would be the most effective method, as opposed to loudly criticizing the monarchy. He also advised the Embassy not to discount former Prime Minister A.T. Dlamini, who is the current director of the King's investment fund, Tibiyo Taka Ngwane. The Prince, who is a member of the Queen Mother's advisory council, said King Mswati III is surrounded by "dishonest," generally uneducated people, who provide the King with bad advice. Nevertheless, he indicated that the King's inaction on reforming the system would not change even if powerful senior traditional leaders such as Prince Mahlaba and Prince Matitsela were to pass on. Thinking back on past efforts to prompt reform, he recalled that in 1996 Presidents Nelson Mandela, Robert Mugabe, and Ketumile Masire met with King Mswati III in Pretoria to push the monarch towards democracy; the King stated to the leaders he relied on his advisors for political issues and no subsequent change occurred. Prince David emphasized that what the King says to foreign leaders cannot be relied upon, because he always deflects and temporizes to bring pressure off himself. ¶4. (C) In discussing the current Prime Minister, Prince David said he was brought in specifically by the King to clamp down on dissent in the wake of the September 2008 bombing of a bridge near a royal residence, probably on the advice of Prince Mahlaba. ¶5. (C) The Prince indicated he meets with civil society leaders such as labor leader Jan Sithole and People's United Democratic Movement (PUDEMO) President Mario Masuku, and advises progressives to work slowly and not be provocative. He believes that civic education and understanding the constitution will eventually lead to political reform. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Prince David has been an advocate for political reform for years, and some sources indicated the King asked him to step down as Justice Minister for the Prince's safety because of death threats from traditionalists MBABANE 00000339 002.3 OF 002 unhappy with the constitution. He hints that he has been sidelined politically in his current capacity. While the Prince posits a plausible scenario of economic pressure leading to political opening in 2010, we see no signs here of government willingness to engage its critics. END COMMENT. IRVING