SWAZILAND: SADC'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MBABANE 000331

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PREL SADC PINR ZI WZ
SUBJECT: SWAZILAND: SADC'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS ON
ZIMBABWE? PROBABLY NOTHING

Classified By: Ambassador Earl M. Irving
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Clifford
Mamba told the Ambassador on December 10 that he doubts the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) will take
further action on Zimbabwe following the expiration of the
Maputo communique's 30-day deadline for making progress on
the Global Political Agreement (GPA). Mamba reasons that
Mozambican President Guebuza shares too much political
baggage with Zimbabwean President Mugabe to push him hard,
and suggests that we look to the Zambian president for action
when he assumes the chair of SADC's Organ on Politics,
Defense and Security next August. The Swazi diplomat ruled
out early intervention by South African President Zuma, who
must gauge carefully how his actions could affect his
relationship with Guebuza. According to Mamba, the way
forward in Zimbabwe is for both Mugabe and his prime minister
to withdraw from politics and allow a fresh candidate to
emerge to break the political stalemate. We believe that
because of his pedigree, Mamba, a seasoned Swazi diplomat, is
in a position to know well the positions of both his
government and the circle of traditionalists who surround
King Mswati III. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Swaziland Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation Principal Secretary Clifford Mamba
told Ambassador on December 10 that he expected little action
in the near to medium term from SADC, following the
expiration of the 30-day deadline given to Zimbabwe to
achieve progress in implementing the GPA. The deadline
follows the Maputo mini-summit's communique on November 5.
Mamba explained that Mozambican President Armando Guebuza
currently has a lot on his plate and is hampered by the fact
that he is Mugabe's neighbor and has a shared history of
anti-colonial struggle with the Zimbabwean president. Thus
he will not pursue resolution of the Zimbabwe question with
vigor. Indeed, Mamba reported, Guebuza asked the Swazis, as
chair of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defense and Security, to
sort it out prior to passing the baton to Mozambique. The
senior Swazi diplomat suggested, instead, that the U.S. and
other interested Western countries focus their attention on
the plans of the next Organ chairman, Zambian President
Rupiah Banda, who will take over in August 2010. He
explained that Banda is politically aligned with Kenneth
Kaunda's party and owes nothing to Mugabe, and therefore is
in a position to lead the SADC Organ more proactively.


3. (C) Asked whether he expected South African President
Zuma to assume a direct role as mediator, Mamba replied in
the negative. "Zuma has to gauge any action he takes with
how it would affect his relationship with Guebuza." The Swazi
diplomat surmised that at the moment Zuma needed Guebuza for
more pressing matters. Simultaneously, he credited Mugabe
with being "a political Maradona," extremely adept at keeping
the regional leaders "on side." He continued that the
Zimbabwean head of state acted in respectful manner, not only
of his fellow heads of state, but also of fellow political
cohabitant, Morgan Tsvangirai. Occasionally, however, Mugabe
lets his facade slip, remarking about Tsvangirai that, "every
village has its idiot."


4. (C) Mamba boasted that Zimbabwean Foreign Minister
Simbarashe Mumbengegwi was his friend and golfing partner,
whom he met when the two served in at the United Nations in
New York. When the two of them discussed Tsvangirai, the
Zimbabwean told the Swazi senior diplomat that Tsvangirai had
little influence within Zimbabwe. "Yes, he may have won the
election, but it was because of a protest vote," Mamba
reported him as saying. He explained that this was because
Tsvangirai had become discredited from succumbing to too many
unspecified pressures along the way to the prime minister's
chair. Moreover, Mamba alleged, Tsvangirai enjoys little
credibility among the SADC leaders.


5. (C) Regarding the way forward, the Swazi diplomat told
the ambassador that "everyone" in the region believes that
both Mugabe and Tsvangirai should resign their posts and not
contest any future presidential race. There should be a
two-to-three year cooling off period during which the
government would be headed by a caretaker figure who would
work to level the political playing field. At the end of
that period elections could be held to install a new,
legitimate government that would benefit the region. He
suggested that Tendai Biti might be an excellent candidate,
either for interim government head or future president.


6. (C) COMMENT: Mamba is the younger brother of Minister of
Justice and Constitutional Affairs Ndumiso Mamba and son of a
former foreign minister. He has been an active diplomat
since 1990, when he was 27 years old, at which time King

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Mswati III appointed him ambassador in Belgium, accredited to
all of continental Europe and the European Commission. When
Mamba's father was the Swazi high commissioner in London, he
was appointed guardian to the future Swazi king when the
latter was sent to England to study. The Foreign Affairs
principal secretary and the king grew up together and have a
close personal relationship. Moreover, the Mamba clan
historically has enjoyed a special status vis-a-vis the royal
household. For that reason, Clifford Mamba has a keen
understanding of the positions both of the government and the
king's inner circle. We believe he has given an accurate
account not only of his government's thinking but that of
other SADC members. While he admires Mugabe for his
shrewdness and sounds like he sides with the Zimbabwean head
of state, he understands that the situation in Zimbabwe is
untenable and a drag on the region, and must change. END
COMMENT.
IRVING