SWAZILAND: SADC'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MBABANE 000331 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: PREL SADC PINR ZI WZ SUBJECT: SWAZILAND: SADC'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE? PROBABLY NOTHING Classified By: Ambassador Earl M. Irving for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Clifford Mamba told the Ambassador on December 10 that he doubts the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will take further action on Zimbabwe following the expiration of the Maputo communique's 30-day deadline for making progress on the Global Political Agreement (GPA). Mamba reasons that Mozambican President Guebuza shares too much political baggage with Zimbabwean President Mugabe to push him hard, and suggests that we look to the Zambian president for action when he assumes the chair of SADC's Organ on Politics, Defense and Security next August. The Swazi diplomat ruled out early intervention by South African President Zuma, who must gauge carefully how his actions could affect his relationship with Guebuza. According to Mamba, the way forward in Zimbabwe is for both Mugabe and his prime minister to withdraw from politics and allow a fresh candidate to emerge to break the political stalemate. We believe that because of his pedigree, Mamba, a seasoned Swazi diplomat, is in a position to know well the positions of both his government and the circle of traditionalists who surround King Mswati III. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Swaziland Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Principal Secretary Clifford Mamba told Ambassador on December 10 that he expected little action in the near to medium term from SADC, following the expiration of the 30-day deadline given to Zimbabwe to achieve progress in implementing the GPA. The deadline follows the Maputo mini-summit's communique on November 5. Mamba explained that Mozambican President Armando Guebuza currently has a lot on his plate and is hampered by the fact that he is Mugabe's neighbor and has a shared history of anti-colonial struggle with the Zimbabwean president. Thus he will not pursue resolution of the Zimbabwe question with vigor. Indeed, Mamba reported, Guebuza asked the Swazis, as chair of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defense and Security, to sort it out prior to passing the baton to Mozambique. The senior Swazi diplomat suggested, instead, that the U.S. and other interested Western countries focus their attention on the plans of the next Organ chairman, Zambian President Rupiah Banda, who will take over in August 2010. He explained that Banda is politically aligned with Kenneth Kaunda's party and owes nothing to Mugabe, and therefore is in a position to lead the SADC Organ more proactively. ¶3. (C) Asked whether he expected South African President Zuma to assume a direct role as mediator, Mamba replied in the negative. "Zuma has to gauge any action he takes with how it would affect his relationship with Guebuza." The Swazi diplomat surmised that at the moment Zuma needed Guebuza for more pressing matters. Simultaneously, he credited Mugabe with being "a political Maradona," extremely adept at keeping the regional leaders "on side." He continued that the Zimbabwean head of state acted in respectful manner, not only of his fellow heads of state, but also of fellow political cohabitant, Morgan Tsvangirai. Occasionally, however, Mugabe lets his facade slip, remarking about Tsvangirai that, "every village has its idiot." ¶4. (C) Mamba boasted that Zimbabwean Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi was his friend and golfing partner, whom he met when the two served in at the United Nations in New York. When the two of them discussed Tsvangirai, the Zimbabwean told the Swazi senior diplomat that Tsvangirai had little influence within Zimbabwe. "Yes, he may have won the election, but it was because of a protest vote," Mamba reported him as saying. He explained that this was because Tsvangirai had become discredited from succumbing to too many unspecified pressures along the way to the prime minister's chair. Moreover, Mamba alleged, Tsvangirai enjoys little credibility among the SADC leaders. ¶5. (C) Regarding the way forward, the Swazi diplomat told the ambassador that "everyone" in the region believes that both Mugabe and Tsvangirai should resign their posts and not contest any future presidential race. There should be a two-to-three year cooling off period during which the government would be headed by a caretaker figure who would work to level the political playing field. At the end of that period elections could be held to install a new, legitimate government that would benefit the region. He suggested that Tendai Biti might be an excellent candidate, either for interim government head or future president. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Mamba is the younger brother of Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs Ndumiso Mamba and son of a former foreign minister. He has been an active diplomat since 1990, when he was 27 years old, at which time King MBABANE 00000331 002 OF 002 Mswati III appointed him ambassador in Belgium, accredited to all of continental Europe and the European Commission. When Mamba's father was the Swazi high commissioner in London, he was appointed guardian to the future Swazi king when the latter was sent to England to study. The Foreign Affairs principal secretary and the king grew up together and have a close personal relationship. Moreover, the Mamba clan historically has enjoyed a special status vis-a-vis the royal household. For that reason, Clifford Mamba has a keen understanding of the positions both of the government and the king's inner circle. We believe he has given an accurate account not only of his government's thinking but that of other SADC members. While he admires Mugabe for his shrewdness and sounds like he sides with the Zimbabwean head of state, he understands that the situation in Zimbabwe is untenable and a drag on the region, and must change. END COMMENT. IRVING