SWAZILAND'S POPULATION GROWTH APPROACHES ZERO; GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS MBABANE 000310 SIPDIS E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PGOV SOCI KHIV PINS WZ SUBJECT: SWAZILAND'S POPULATION GROWTH APPROACHES ZERO; GOVERNMENT YET TO RELEASE FULL CENSUS RESULTS REF: 1) 07 MBABANE 443 ¶1. SUMMARY: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released some figures from the final 2007 Population and Housing Census report, indicating a Swaziland population of 1,018,449, compared with 980,727 in 1997. The anemic population increase of 37,722 people over ten years represents a growth rate of 0.38 percent, compared to a growth rate of 2.97 percent over the previous 10 year period. Ministry of Economic Planning and Development Chief Economist Nomsa Ntibane indicated that current projections show that by the 2050 the country may only have 700,000 Swazis left alive. The current slow growth results from declining fertility rates and increases in the mortality rate. Most observers privately point to high HIV/AIDS infection rates as the main factor behind the drop, including a fall in life expectancy from 60 in 1997 to 33 in 2007. END SUMMARY. ¶2. The Central Statistics Office has released some figures from the final 2007 Population and Housing Census report, indicating a Swaziland population of 1,018,449, compared with 980,727 in 1997. The 1,018,449 number represents de jure population, i.e., the people counted in their usual place of residence. The de facto population, counted in the place where they spent the night of the census, was 844,223. Projections in 1997 anticipated a 2007 de jure population of 1.1 million. The anemic population increase of 37,722 people over 10 years represents a growth rate of 0.38 percent, compared to a growth rate of 2.97 percent over the previous ten year period. Ministry of Economic Planning and Development Chief Economist Nomsa Ntibane indicated in a press report on October 24 that current projections show that by the 2050 the country may only have 700,000 Swazis left alive. ¶3. The current slow growth results from declining fertility rates and increases in the mortality rate. The number of children per woman has fallen from 6.4 in 1986, to 4.5 in 1997, and 3.8 in 2007. The infant mortality rate increased from 78 per 1000 births in 1997 to 85 in 2007. Life expectancy dropped dramatically from 60 in 1997 to 33 in 2007. Most observers here privately point to high HIV/AIDS infection rates as the main factor behind the drop in life expectancy. ¶4. Swaziland's population remains predominantly rural, with 78.9 percent living in rural areas. The number of males per 100 women is 89.6 throughout the country, with only 88.9 males per 100 women in the rural regions. 39.6 percent of the population is younger than 15 years, and 52 percent is younger than 20 years old. The median age is 17.6 years. ¶5. Although earlier Central Statistics Office publications and statements indicated that the full 2007 census report would be made available by the end of September 2008, numerous officials at the CSO stated to Embassy officials that the full report was still not available. An official from the Swaziland Office of the UN Population Fund stated she could not comment on the census, and referred all questions back to the CSO. According to a foreign consultant to the CSO, the Swazi government has not been able to release the final results of the census due to ongoing difficulties resulting from the initial data collection and aggregation. ¶6. COMMENT: In September 2007, the provisional 2007 census results indicated a de jure population of 912,229, which would have represented a negative population growth. Negative public reaction to those provisional figures may have made CSO and government officials reluctant to subsequently share information. END COMMENT.