LESOTHO: MURMURS OF AN IMMINENT CABINET RESHUFFLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000136 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV LT SUBJECT: LESOTHO: MURMURS OF AN IMMINENT CABINET RESHUFFLE REF: A) MASERU 116 B) MASERU 113 C) MASERU 25 D) 2008 MASERU 336 MASERU 00000136 001.2 OF 002 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. The tranquility that Lesotho politicians enjoyed in recent months was marred by violence on April 22, when attacks on the Prime Minister's official residence and on military barracks were carried out by gunmen (refs A and B). These attacks have come amidst growing speculation in the local media that a major cabinet reshuffle is in the offing. Embassy sources have indicated that there is a strong possibility of a reshuffle within the next fourteen days. -------------- Possible changes -------------- ¶2. Well placed sources within the governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) informed the Embassy in confidence that the following ministers may lose their cabinet portfolios: Minister of Sports and Recreation, Gender and Youth Affairs, `Mathabiso Lepono; Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Lesole Mokoma; Minister of Employment and Labor, Refiloe Masemene; and the Minister of Public Works and Transport, T'sele Chakela. The sources also expect the Ministry of Sports and Recreation, Gender and Youth affairs to be split into two ministries: The Ministry of Sports and Recreation (MSR),and the Ministry of Gender and Youth Affairs (MGY). Tseliso Khomari (currently a Senator and president of the USG alumni association) would be appointed Minister of the MSR and Keketso Rantso (currently a National Assembly representative) would be appointed Minister of the MGY. -------------- Dij` vu all over again -------------- ¶3. In its September 25, 2008, issue, the Lesotho Monitor, a local newspaper, published rumors of an imminent Cabinet reshuffle, reflecting reported tensions within the governing LCD party. Though that predicted Cabinet shake-up did not materialize, highly-placed sources within the LCD are still convinced that a reshuffle is on the horizon. -------------- Uncertain times for party leaders -------------- ¶4. The party is reported to be polarized, with one faction, which includes the youth league, reported to be pro-Monyane Moleleki, currently Minister of Natural Resources. The other faction is the pro-Mosisili faction and is reported to have the support of most Cabinet members, including particularly the Minister of Communications, Science and Technology, Mothojoa Metsing, who is also the newly elected Secretary General of the LCD. The Mosisili faction is also alleged to have the full support of former Secretary General and Minister of Trade and Industry, Mpho Malie, who resigned from the cabinet before the 2007 general elections and also stepped down as Secretary General of the party in January 2009, prior to the LCD National Executive Committee (NEC) elections. According to local analysts, Malie is credited with engineering the outcome of the afore-mentioned NEC in an endeavor to remove Moleleki from the NEC post he has held for over fifteen years (ref C). -------------- What does the Moleleki group want? -------------- ¶5. The Moleleki faction allegedly wants a clear succession plan and wants to see the Prime Minister, who is on his third term, leave office even though the Constitution allows him to seek more terms. According to Embassy sources, Moleleki's camp argues that a leader who stays in power for too long becomes susceptible to despotic tendencies and ends up eliminating the competition, thus stifling the development of potential future party leaders. At the LCD policy conference, held in September 2008, Prime Minister Mosisili pointedly warned that party members who undermine both party protocols and the authority of the National Executive Committee (NEC) by campaigning in the constituencies using official transport without authorization, and by contradicting and challenging decisions, directives, and administration of the NEC, would be removed from office immediately. The audience reacted by shouting Moleleki's name. On October 5, 2008, the LCD NEC subsequently fired the entire Youth League leadership, which was accused of being aligned with Moleleki's faction. New members are likely to be elected as soon as all the constituencies have been consulted. -------------- MASERU 00000136 002.2 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. It is too early to gauge the possibility of a major reshuffle or provide a prognosis on potential political developments over the next few months. One thing is clear, there is tension within the governing party. However, as some observers point out, the governing party does not want to `wash its dirty linen in public'. It will be interesting to see if indeed a reshuffle takes place and what it means for the future of the governing party. The recent attempted assassination of the Prime Minister has spurred a feeding frenzy of speculation, including these renewed rumors of a cabinet reshuffle and a wealth of prophesies and conspiracy theories about who might want to destabilize the government or unseat the current Prime Minister. Post has addressed several of these theories septel. NOLAN