CRUSHING FRELIMO VICTORY CONFIRMED BY ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001282

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019
TAGS: MZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: CRUSHING FRELIMO VICTORY CONFIRMED BY ELECTORAL
COMMISSION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b + d
)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On November 11 Mozambique,s National
Electoral Commission (CNE) announced the results of elections
held on October 28. As accurately predicted by a parallel
vote tabulation conducted on election day the ruling party
and President Armando Guebuza won an overwhelming mandate,as
FRELIMO garnered approximately 75% of the votes cast for
president, a similar majority in the national assembly (AR),
and 86% of the seats in provincial parliamentary assemblies
(AP). In the end, FRELIMO out-spent and out-maneuvered all
other players (and some would say including the international
community) as it executed its pre-election strategy with
strong-arm tactics and an efficient, well-funded campaign
machine. While the political opposition movements will
remain, they have been effectively neutralized and reduced.
END SUMMARY.

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FRELIMO OVERWHELMS
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2. (SBU) Mozambique held three elections on October 28:
presidential, national parliamentary and provincial
parliamentary. As announced by the CNE, in the presidential
race, FRELIMO,s Armando Guebuza was reelected with 75.46% of
the votes cast. RENAMO,s Afonso Dhlakama received 16.51%
and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique,s (MDM) Daviz
Simango 8.64%. The parallel vote tabulation carried out by
EISA correctly predicted within one per cent the actual
results. (NOTE: The results as announced by the CNE do not
equal 100%--nobody has a good explanation why. END NOTE.)
Approximately 44% of eligible voters turned out at the polls.
In the AR contest, FRELIMO secured 75.06%, RENAMO 17.78%, and
MDM just 3.95% as it was disqualified from running in 9 of 13
electoral districts. FRELIMO will have 191 deputies, Renamo
51, and MDM 8. This represented a net gain for FRELIMO of 31
seats and a loss for RENAMO of 39. In the AP voting, FRELIMO
secured 699 seats or 86% of the available total. RENAMO
candidates won 82 seats, MDM candidates 24 and the Party for
Democracy and Development(PDD)4.

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GUEBUZA THE BIG WINNER
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3. (SBU) President Guebuza is clearly the big winner in
this election, by several different measures. Firstly, he
increased his percentage of the total vote by 13 percent over
the 2004 presidential results. His total vote count rose by
over 970,000 votes, from just over 2 million in 2004 to
almost 3 million in 2009. Dhlakama,s percentage of the
presidential vote dropped almost in half: from 31.7% in 2004
to 16.51% in 2009. Although MDM was formed only this year,
Simango had high hopes for a stronger showing than 8.64% of
the presidential votes it received. The PDD candidate, Raul
Domingos, ran a distant third in the 2004 presidential
elections but was disqualified from the 2009 presidential
campaign, as were all other presidential candidates.

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COMMENT: A ONE-PARTY STATE
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4. (C) FRELIMO spared no expense to assure total victory
in the 2009 elections, and it certainly reached its
objective. There were really only two questions going into
this election: would FRELIMO win more than the two-thirds
majority in the AR required to amend Mozambique,s
constitution and would MDM unseat RENAMO as the largest
opposition party? With FRELIMO now controlling almost
three-fourths of the AR seats, the opposition (and many
political commentators) fear that Guebuza will seek to amend
the constitution to permit a run for a third consecutive
term in 2014. Only internal FRELIMO opposition to such an
outcome - and it does exist - would be able to curb
Guebuza,s ambition should he desire to continue in office.
While Guebuza stated coyly during the campaign that he would
not seek a third term because he would respect the
constitution,, many speculate as to his true intentions. On
the second question, RENAMO certainly is poorly organized and
rapidly losing supporters to MDM, but its traditional base
and the force of habit assured that RENAMO still
out-performed MDM on election day. But the trend lines are
clear: RENAMO descending and MDM ascending. AR regulations
as they currently exist, however, will make it difficult for
MDM to make its mark in the AR, as a minimum of 11

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representatives are required to form a party block, with
the associated privileges of proposing legislation or
speaking in the AR. Therefore, unless FRELIMO modifies the
applicable regulations (as many will encourage it to do),MDM
could be virtually silenced in the AR. In the end, FRELIMO
out-spent and out-maneuvered all other players (and some
would say to include the international community) as it
executed its pre-election strategy with strong-arm tactics
and an efficient, well-funded campaign machine. While the
political opposition movements will remain, they have been
effectively neutralized and reduced.
CHAPMAN