CRUSHING FRELIMO VICTORY CONFIRMED BY ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001282 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019 TAGS: MZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: CRUSHING FRELIMO VICTORY CONFIRMED BY ELECTORAL COMMISSION Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b + d ) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On November 11 Mozambique,s National Electoral Commission (CNE) announced the results of elections held on October 28. As accurately predicted by a parallel vote tabulation conducted on election day the ruling party and President Armando Guebuza won an overwhelming mandate,as FRELIMO garnered approximately 75% of the votes cast for president, a similar majority in the national assembly (AR), and 86% of the seats in provincial parliamentary assemblies (AP). In the end, FRELIMO out-spent and out-maneuvered all other players (and some would say including the international community) as it executed its pre-election strategy with strong-arm tactics and an efficient, well-funded campaign machine. While the political opposition movements will remain, they have been effectively neutralized and reduced. END SUMMARY. -------------- FRELIMO OVERWHELMS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Mozambique held three elections on October 28: presidential, national parliamentary and provincial parliamentary. As announced by the CNE, in the presidential race, FRELIMO,s Armando Guebuza was reelected with 75.46% of the votes cast. RENAMO,s Afonso Dhlakama received 16.51% and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique,s (MDM) Daviz Simango 8.64%. The parallel vote tabulation carried out by EISA correctly predicted within one per cent the actual results. (NOTE: The results as announced by the CNE do not equal 100%--nobody has a good explanation why. END NOTE.) Approximately 44% of eligible voters turned out at the polls. In the AR contest, FRELIMO secured 75.06%, RENAMO 17.78%, and MDM just 3.95% as it was disqualified from running in 9 of 13 electoral districts. FRELIMO will have 191 deputies, Renamo 51, and MDM 8. This represented a net gain for FRELIMO of 31 seats and a loss for RENAMO of 39. In the AP voting, FRELIMO secured 699 seats or 86% of the available total. RENAMO candidates won 82 seats, MDM candidates 24 and the Party for Democracy and Development(PDD)4. -------------- GUEBUZA THE BIG WINNER -------------- ¶3. (SBU) President Guebuza is clearly the big winner in this election, by several different measures. Firstly, he increased his percentage of the total vote by 13 percent over the 2004 presidential results. His total vote count rose by over 970,000 votes, from just over 2 million in 2004 to almost 3 million in 2009. Dhlakama,s percentage of the presidential vote dropped almost in half: from 31.7% in 2004 to 16.51% in 2009. Although MDM was formed only this year, Simango had high hopes for a stronger showing than 8.64% of the presidential votes it received. The PDD candidate, Raul Domingos, ran a distant third in the 2004 presidential elections but was disqualified from the 2009 presidential campaign, as were all other presidential candidates. -------------- COMMENT: A ONE-PARTY STATE -------------- ¶4. (C) FRELIMO spared no expense to assure total victory in the 2009 elections, and it certainly reached its objective. There were really only two questions going into this election: would FRELIMO win more than the two-thirds majority in the AR required to amend Mozambique,s constitution and would MDM unseat RENAMO as the largest opposition party? With FRELIMO now controlling almost three-fourths of the AR seats, the opposition (and many political commentators) fear that Guebuza will seek to amend the constitution to permit a run for a third consecutive term in 2014. Only internal FRELIMO opposition to such an outcome - and it does exist - would be able to curb Guebuza,s ambition should he desire to continue in office. While Guebuza stated coyly during the campaign that he would not seek a third term because he would respect the constitution,, many speculate as to his true intentions. On the second question, RENAMO certainly is poorly organized and rapidly losing supporters to MDM, but its traditional base and the force of habit assured that RENAMO still out-performed MDM on election day. But the trend lines are clear: RENAMO descending and MDM ascending. AR regulations as they currently exist, however, will make it difficult for MDM to make its mark in the AR, as a minimum of 11 MAPUTO 00001282 002 OF 002 representatives are required to form a party block, with the associated privileges of proposing legislation or speaking in the AR. Therefore, unless FRELIMO modifies the applicable regulations (as many will encourage it to do),MDM could be virtually silenced in the AR. In the end, FRELIMO out-spent and out-maneuvered all other players (and some would say to include the international community) as it executed its pre-election strategy with strong-arm tactics and an efficient, well-funded campaign machine. While the political opposition movements will remain, they have been effectively neutralized and reduced. CHAPMAN