DEFENSE MINISTER ON ZIMBABWE PRIOR TO SADC TROIKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MAPUTO 001237

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI MZ
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER ON ZIMBABWE PRIOR TO SADC TROIKA
SUMMIT

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b + d
)


1. (C) On November 5 just hours before the opening in Maputo
of the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) Organ
on Politics, Defense and Security 'Troika' Summit, the Charge
and DATT met with Mozambican Defense Minister Filipe Nyussi
at his request to discuss Zimbabwe (and other topics covered
septel). Nyussi said that an unusually large delegation from
Zimbabwe would attend the meeting, including President
Mugabe, Prime Minister Tsvangirai, Defense Minister
Mnangagwa, Industry and Commerce Minister Ncube, Vice Prime
Minister Mutumbara, and Justice Minister Chinamasa. While
Lesotho and Madagascar were also technically on the agenda,
Zimbabwe would be the main item discussed.


2. (C) Nyussi believed the root problem between the two
Zimbabwean leaders was pride and that neither Mugabe nor
Tsvangirai knew how to negotiate. He regretted how the
ongoing instability in Zimbabwe brought harm to Mozambique
and asked for U.S. views on the matter, especially entering
the summit. The Charge told Nyussi that the SADC Troika, NOW
under Mozambican leadership, needed to step up and take
greater responsibility for monitoring the implementation of
the political agreement and to hold all sides accountable.
He continued suggesting that Guebuza, as one of the few
remaining regional leaders with direct access to Mugabe,
needed to influence Mugabe to respect the conditions of the
GNU agreement and to create more political space for the MDC.
The Charge concluded that many in the USG believed, himself
included, that Guebuza needed to be doing more to help in
Zimbabwe. Nyussi responded that he thought his President was
indeed speaking plainly with Mugabe, but that Mugabe simply
would not listen.


3. (C) Whatever happened, Nyussi said, Mugabe would require
that he appear to emerge as the victor in any negotiations.
The Charge responded that the Troika, therefore, needed to be
creative in devising a manner for Mugabe to be perceived as
winning by sharing power as envisioned in the agreement and
deliberately withdrawing himself step-by-step from Zimbabwe's
political scene over time. Concluding with a one-on-one time
with Nyussi, the Charge reiterated that Guebuza needed to
take advantage of this moment to be bolder and more forceful
with Mugabe, as faith in Guebuza's abilities to be
constructive in Zimbabwe was dwindling. Nyussi replied that
it was complicated but that he would be meeting with
Mnangagwa to review possible options, since he was not sure
that many people were actually reaching Mugabe with correct
information.


4. (C) Comment: Nyussi, usually straightforward and jovial
in meetings, was more serious and focused on seeking input
entering today's summit meeting, perhaps feeling more
responsibility for the outcome as Mozambique is both host and
Troika president. He seemed to believe that there would be
more intense negotiations this time by virtue of the number
in the Zimbabwean delegation and the increasing frustration
of SADC members, including Mozambique, with the inability of
the Zimbabweans to work things out for themselves. The
official SADC program has scheduled a press conference to
read the official communique for nine p.m. local time, though
journalists here already report that this time may slip. End
Comment.
CHAPMAN