RULING FRELIMO PARTY CRUSHES OPPOSITION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001167

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MZ
SUBJECT: RULING FRELIMO PARTY CRUSHES OPPOSITION IN
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd Chapman, reasons 1.4(b+d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ruling FRELIMO party appears to have
overwhelmed the opposition in general elections held on
October 28. Current president and FRELIMO candidate Armando
Guebuza could get above 75pct of the presidential vote, and
FRELIMO should walk away with a super-majority (more than
two-thirds) in the National Assembly. Election day was
generally calm and polling station logistics and processes
worked smoothly. Estimates of abstention rates vary
significantly. There was an unusually coincidental blackout
of two independent TV stations during the election day,
suggestions of intimidation and ballot-stuffing, and
arbitrary changes in polling station locations. The
electoral process is ongoing, and further ballot counts could
add percentages that would bolster FRELIMO's margins,
highlighting the need for continued vigilance by election
observer missions. The disqualification of new opposition
party MDM from many legislative races prior to election
appears to have halted its momentum--though its showing
suggests that it might still have a future--and FRELIMO
efforts to ensure an outcome in its favor were exceptionally
effective. END SUMMARY.

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Raw Numbers ) FRELIMO Overwhelms
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2. (SBU) A parallel vote tabulation carried out late on
October 28 by the Elections Institute of Southern Africa
based on initial balloting indicates that nationwide, current
president and FRELIMO candidate Armando Guebuza could win
over 75pct of presidential votes (13pct higher than his
showing in 2004),with traditional opposition RENAMO leader
Afonso Dhlakama 15pct and new Democratic Movement of
Mozambique (MDM) candidate Daviz Simango getting 10pct.
Limited initial sampling suggests that Guebuza will gain
nearly 85pct of valid presidential election votes in southern
areas of the country, and above 60pct in areas that have
previously been opposition strongholds in the central and
northern regions. If this holds, FRELIMO will easily surpass
the 167 of 250 seats needed for a two-thirds supermajority in
the national legislative assembly and will control all ten
provincial legislatures.

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Positives: Calm and Efficiency Prevail
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3. (SBU) In general, the elections day climate was
calm--there were only a few reports of localized violence.
Estimates of the abstention rate varied significantly; some
observer groups suggested a high turnout rate, while others
indicated that as many as two-thirds of voters stayed home.
Turnout in southern cities was well over 50pct, but it
appears that rural areas were well below this number, thus
bringing down the overall averages. Observation groups
reported that polling station logistics generally functioned
smoothly, and raising the number of polling station workers
from five to seven helped speed up processes-these national
elections were held in just one day for the first time.

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A Highly Unusual Communications Blackout
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4. (SBU) Independent TV stations STV and TIM both suffered
extended blackouts for most of elections day. TIM's director
general indicated that the cut to his station was because the
government-owned telecommunications company TDM arbitrarily
decided to cut the signal. STV Chairman Daniel David said
that there was an unexplained equipment breakdown, and that
he was still awaiting a final report. There also appeared to
be some problems with mobile telephone networks.

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Intimidation, Claims of Ballot Stuffing
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5. (SBU) There are early indications of ballot box stuffing,
as there was over 100pct turnout at some remote polling
stations in Gaza and Tete provinces, with Guebuza winning
99.99pct of the vote in these areas, and other instances of
unusually large numbers of ballots marked in the exact same
manner. Similar accusations have been lodged about activity
at polling stations outside Mozambique, where expatriate
Mozambicans are permitted to vote. U.S. observers also noted
Frelimo party 'supervisors' prominently seated in open areas

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near some polling places. These individuals, usually young
men with an intimidating physical presence, appeared to have
no function related to the election. In a few instances,
international observers were denied access to some polling
stations.

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Polling Stations Arbitrarily Moved
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6. (C) Civil society observers told poloff on October 28
that 400 polling stations were arbitrarily moved at the last
moment and without any announcement from their legally
designated locations to alternate spots. U.S. observers
noted the results of this action at some locations with
multiple polling stations*some stations had lines of several
hundred people long, while others were completely empty.
U.S. observers also recorded instances of individuals who
were not elections authorities directing voters away from
locations to other stations that were distant. (Note: While
these individuals may have been operating in good faith and
were just being helpful, this has also been noted as a common
tactic to keep opposition voters from making it to their
assigned voting booth before closing time in previous
elections. End note.)

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Comment: A Highly Organized, Pre-Planned Outcome
-------------- ---


7. (C) The electoral process is ongoing and must proceed
through several more vote-counting steps at the district,
provincial, and national level. In previous elections, each
of these steps has added a small percentage of votes in favor
of FRELIMO, that when taken as a package could add five
percent to the presidential election and swing several
legislative races. In other words, there is still
opportunity aplenty to play with numbers to ensure
appropriate outcomes for FRELIMO as necessary (although the
victory appears so complete that additional manipulation
would seem extravagant),and elections observers must
maintain vigilance throughout the ensuing days and weeks.


8. (C) The CNE decision in September to disqualify MDM from
many legislative races appears to have halted the party's
momentum dead in its tracks, especially if abstention rates
ultimately trend towards the higher estimates. In any case,
after this elections cycle and municipal elections last year,
FRELIMO will control all organs of government at all levels
more completely than at any time since the Peace Accords of

1992. The FRELIMO machinery, well-financed by party
businesses and state)owned entities, did its job
impressively well. Observer groups are likely to give
relatively favorable reviews of the process on elections day
itself, but ultimately this election was decided before it
ever started, and now with a super majority in the national
assembly, FRELIMO can change the constitution at will.
Still, Simango's showing suggests that his MDM party is here
to stay and could be capable of overtaking RENAMO as an
active opposition, should FRELIMO allow that to happen.
CHAPMAN