MDM LEADER DAVIZ SIMANGO'S CONCERNS ENTERING THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MAPUTO 001159 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MZ SUBJECT: MDM LEADER DAVIZ SIMANGO'S CONCERNS ENTERING THE ELECTIONS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman, Reason 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Charge spoke by phone on October 26 with Democratic Movement for Mozambique presidential candidate Daviz Simango. When asked about his concerns approaching election day, Simango feared MDM election monitors would not receive the vote tallies from the polling station presidents, as is required by law. He also stated his worries regarding FRELIMO's continued use of state resources--such as cars--on election day and the importance of police objectivity at the polls. Simango speculated his party would not fare well in the parliamentary or provincial elections, but hinted he could receive a majority of votes in the presidential election in some provinces. While Simango obliquely referred to a second electoral round--indicating Guebuza may not win the required votes to take the presidency outright and force a run off--we still believe a Guebuza win in the first round is most likely. END SUMMARY. -------------- SIMANGO VOICES CONCERNS FOR ELECTION DAY -------------- ¶2. (C) The Charge spoke by phone on October 26 with Democratic Movement for Mozambique's (MDM) presidential candidate Daviz Simango. Simango stated he had two main concerns for election day. The first was his worry that the presidents of each polling station would not give copies of the results to the MDM's observers. The law requires that the presidents post the vote tallies on the polling station building, as well as present a copy of the tally to each party representative. Simango's second worry was the continued abuse of state resources on election day*using government vehicles to transport voters, for example*and the need for the police to provide adequate security and refrain from any means of voter intimidation. ¶3. (C) Simango was displeased with the almost complete exclusion of opposition parties from the provincial elections: "Can it be in all the provincial capitals that the opposition will not be present?" Simango opined that the ruling FRELIMO party had pushed the opposition out of the provincial elections so that they could not question the work of FRELIMO-appointed governors. -------------- SPECULATES ABOUT THE OUTCOME -------------- ¶4. (C) The Charge asked Simango how the MDM would fare in the elections. Simango answered that the party had come a long way and had had to overcome many obstacles. He speculated the MDM would not do well in the parliamentary or provincial elections, but as for the presidential election, he said there "could be a surprise in the first round," and hinted he believed he could win the majority of presidential votes in some provinces. -------------- COMMENT: POTENTIAL FOR SURPRISE? -------------- ¶5. (C) Simango hinted of a surprise in the election by mentioning the "first round" of presidential elections, suggesting Guebuza may not win the necessary 50 percent-plus-one votes, thereby requiring a run-off. Such an outcome would be a considerable shock to FRELIMO, however we believe it is still most likely that Guebuza will win the presidency outright. Simango, who admitted he was very tired (which is understandable),seemed in good spirits. CHAPMAN