MOZAMBIQUE LEADERSHIP - RISING STARS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001023 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MZ SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE LEADERSHIP - RISING STARS REF: A. MAPUTO 661 ¶B. MAPUTO 778 ¶C. MAPUTO 656 ¶D. MAPUTO 609 ¶E. MAPUTO 608 ¶F. MAPUTO 490 Classified By: A/DCM Matthew Roth, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: This is the third in a three part series on Mozambican leadership. Future leaders of Mozambique are impossible to predict as several factors are in flux and could alter the course of elections in 2014. A change is FRELIMO structure is possible, which could open the way for the Party President to not necessarily be the president of the country. FRELIMO might try to balance longstanding regional tensions by selecting a candidate from the north to balance the historic tendency to centralize political power in the south. Furthermore, politics appear to be changing as a youth divide becomes more apparent. A new generation of youth and women are receiving education abroad and are disaffected with politics. They are less interested in liberation credentials than they are in issues such as HIV/AIDS, education and trade policies. However, apathy is still a problem, and low voter turnout is problematic among these groups (Ref A). END SUMMARY. -------------- LEADERS TO WATCH -------------- ¶2. (C) Minister of Education Aires Bonifacio Baptista Aly is a younger up-and-coming leader. Aly is not a liberation figure, but is well connected and a member of FRELIMO's Political Committee. Some consider him to be a good candidate to be the next Prime Minister. He is a technocrat and was the former national director of education before taking the cabinet position. He is a Muslim from the northern Niassa province, the same area as the Speaker of Parliament and the former Minister of Minerals, who are powerful allies and have strong liberation credentials. Aly is charismatic, warm, charming and a sophisticated political player. One of his children graduated from Oklahoma University and another child is currently studying at Oklahoma State University. ¶3. (C) Foreign Minister Oldemiro Julio Marques Baloi is not a Guebuza insider, and remains firmly in the Chissano camp. He is an economist and an experienced minister, spending nearly a decade in banking before returning to government and accepting the post of Foreign Minister in 2008. Baloi probably would not be a great populist campaigner, but his results-oriented business style is refreshingly interactive and may appeal to the electorate. He is eager to strengthen relations with the United States. A priority area for Baloi is eliminating administrative hurdles, such as licensing, taxing and visas, for U.S. programs in Mozambique. ¶4. (S//NF) Minister of Transportation and Communication Paulo Zucula is involved in top FRELIMO projects and may be well placed to rise through the ranks of the party. Zucula is a party heavyweight in large part for his fundraising activities. According to our contacts within the party, Zucula, in concert with Planning Minister Aiuba Cuereneia, is attempting to funnel port revenues directly to the FRELIMO party by increasing entry charges. More worrying, our contacts say the two also have allowed FRELIMO party members to pass cargo through the ports without customs inspections. On the other hand, since being appointed in 2008, Zucula took the strong position of refusing a weapons shipment headed for Zimbabwe entry through Mozambique. He accompanied Guebuza in his July trip to Brazil, and is leading efforts to privatize mCel, the cellphone parastatal. Zucula is well-respected for his handling of the disastrous floods of 2007 when he was director of Mozambique's emergency management agency. Zucula received a Master's Degree in agronomy from the University of Minnesota, and speaks fluent Portuguese and English. ¶5. (C) Opposition Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) leader Daviz Simango is another rising star. A breakaway RENAMO member, people will look to his performance as mayor of Beira when passing judgment on the viability of a third party in Mozambique. Simango is from central Mozambique, and is widely seen as a relatively clean politician who has eliminated graft and cronyism in Beira. In the mayoral election, he received a majority of the votes in the neighborhood where FRELIMO politicians live, suggesting he has the ability to attract some ruling party members to his MAPUTO 00001023 002 OF 002 side. His father was a founding member of FRELIMO, but was accused of being a traitor to the party, sent to a reeducation camp and eventually executed by members of Samora Machel's government. Popular attitudes towards the Simango family are changing however, and many Mozambicans are beginning to recognize Daviz's father as a liberation hero who was wrongly labeled as a traitor. Daviz's newly-cleansed FRELIMO pedigree, coupled with his RENAMO credentials, and his results as Mayor of Beira, could help him earn votes from disgruntled supporters of both parties. In a recent trip to Maputo, some 20 FRELIMO youth members secretly tried to meet with Simango at his hotel. Simango is only an average public speaker, especially when he just reads from his notes. He does come across as sincere and is more effective when he speaks extemporaneously (Refs B, C, D, E, F). -------------- COMMENT: MOZAMBIQUE'S FUTURE STATESMEN? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The four men suggested in this cable are worth watching in the next few years, although their future successes are far from certain. FRELIMO party politics are opaque, and the apparent friction between the Guebuza and Chissano factions, as well as internal FRELIMO frictions over business deals, may continue to be a factor in the coming years. Daviz Simango's MDM is still a mostly untested party; while it has had considerable success in Beira, the October 28 general elections be the first real national indicator of its viability--even though the unfair playing field tilted in FRELIMO's favor may skew the results. CHAPMAN