MOZAMBIQUE LEADERSHIP - OUTSIDERS LOOKING IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001015 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MZ SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE LEADERSHIP - OUTSIDERS LOOKING IN REF: A. MAPUTO 611 ¶B. MAPUTO 320 ¶C. MAPUTO 626 ¶D. MAPUTO 610 ¶E. MAPUTO 493 ¶F. MAPUTO 661 Classified By: Classified by A/DCM Matthew Roth, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: This is the second in a three-part series on Mozambican leadership. Mozambique has several prominent figures who, while possessing their own political strength, do not hold influence over President Guebuza. Some figures described in this cable have achieved powerful positions because they are skilled technocrats who can override personality politics, whereas others are in danger of losing their jobs because they have gone too far in embarrassing the administration. END SUMMARY. -------------- OUTSIDERS LOOKING IN -------------- ¶2. (C) The Secretary General of FRELIMO is a historically powerful position--Chissano and Guebuza both used it as a stepping stone to the Presidency--but the current office holder, Filipe Chimoio Paunde, is seen as weak. Paunde was handpicked by Guebuza, probably because Paunde is unlikely to challenge Guebuza's tight control of the party and also because Paunde is from central Mozambique, a traditional opposition RENAMO stronghold. Paunde is very loyal to Guebuza due to his selection for this high position that he otherwise probably would not have earned. ¶3. (C) First Lady Maria de Luz Guebuza has developed her own independent power base, has the President's ear on domestic issues, but is not viewed as a political insider consulted on President Guebuza's most important political decisions. She loves the spotlight and getting international awards. She has a foundation that focuses on HIV/AIDS and children's issues, her own Oprah-style magazine, and a cult following. She is a liberation heroine and is well-known and popular throughout southern Africa. The First Lady often travels with the President in his Open Presidency trips to the districts. Her chief of staff is the wife of Minister of Planning and Development Cureneia. One recent rumor circulating Maputo political circles is that if FRELIMO cannot amend the constitution to allow for a third term for President Armando Guebuza starting in 2014, then perhaps he would opt for his wife to occupy that position. ¶4. (C) Prime Minister Luisa Diogo is widely respected in the international community for possessing a smart economic mind. She is an international star, seen as a successful female politician, and serves as the public envoy to the World Bank and IMF, but was not Guebuza's top choice for the job. She is firmly aligned with the Chissano faction and probably was picked to be Prime Minister because she was a tolerable choice for both FRELIMO factions. Domestically, Diogo is considered to be a lame duck--she probably will lose her job after the October elections. Her husband is Albano Silva, a controversial influential white lawyer who represented Charles Smith, an American citizen with pending U.S. warrants who was mysteriously released from prison. Silva has also been linked to large-scale import schemes that used government connections to avoid paying duties. ¶5. (C) Former Foreign Minister Leonardo Simao is sharply critical of high-level FRELIMO corruption. He has been a member of FRELIMO since 1982, and served as Chissano's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation until 2005 when he was replaced by Guebuza. Now the Executive Director of the Chissano Foundation, Simao is widely known to be a leading member of the Chissano faction, although he denies any splintering within FRELIMO. He calls Guebuza a cold figure, with whom it is difficult to debate and was once accused of running a smear campaign against Guebuza over an airline deal. Simao owns interests in the oil company OilMoz, and is developing plans for an oil refinery in southern Mozambique. His wife runs a flower-producing company in Matola that was accused of employing persons in slave-like conditions. The company was subsequently cleared of any wrong-doing by the Ministry of Labor (Ref A and B). ¶6. (C) Minister of Labor Helena Taipo is widely expected to lose her job after the elections in October for embarrassing the Guebuza administration over her Ministry's efforts to enforce quotas on foreign workers. Post has reported on long-standing problems associated with obtaining work MAPUTO 00001015 002 OF 002 authorizations for USG-supported health programs and the resulting fiery rhetoric from the Minister's office. Taipo's attitude has drawn the ire of the Ministries of Health and Foreign Affairs, and as a result Taipo has been mostly sidelined. (REF C, D, E, F) She does however have significant pull with labor unions, and helped galvanize Frelimo support in central Mozambique. At least one insider believes that Taipo has the private support of President Guebuza, and may be moved to another position of power post-election, possibly Minister of Industry and Commerce, where her socialist views could seriously jeopardize the business climate. Her ability to draw votes, and great support at the grassroots level of Frelimo, may force Guebuza to keep her in a cabinet-level position. ¶7. (C) Former President Joaquim Chissano remains popular on the international stage and is solidifying his role as a regional mediator; his recent work on Uganda and Madagascar shows he has the diplomatic skills to negotiate delicate and potentially violent situations. His tenure as President was marked by deliberate efforts to build consensus and reconciliation, however many observers say corruption was an open secret in his administration. When Chissano stood down from office in 2005 after 18 years in power, Guebuza immediately worked to consolidate FRELIMO's one-party supremacy and do away with Chissano's politics of inclusion. This move exacerbated the rift between the two men, leading to party members taking sides and contributing to FRELIMO factionalism present today. Chissano is articulate and speaks excellent Portuguese, French, and English. ¶8. (C) Former First Lady Graca Machel, widow of FRELIMO founder Samora Machel and current wife of Nelson Mandela, is a strong supporter of humanitarian causes in her native Mozambique and in Southern Africa. As a founding member of FRELIMO in the 1970s and close friend with Marcelino Dos Santos and others, Machel's early politics can be characterized as radical; she held important posts in FRELIMO, including the job of Education Minister and a spot on the Central Committee. Although Machel backed Guebuza's run for the presidency, in 2008 she enraged Guebuza by standing with President Carter and Kofi Annan in criticizing Zimbabwe's President Mugabe. She is now well respected for her social work on behalf of women and children in Africa and is viewed as a person of considerable culture and charm. Like most senior members of FRELIMO, she has significant business interests in Mozambique due to her position in the party. She speaks fluent Portuguese, French and English. CHAPMAN