PRESIDENT GUEBUZA'S INNER CIRCLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 001013 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ SUBJECT: PRESIDENT GUEBUZA'S INNER CIRCLE REF: A. MAPUTO 677 ¶B. MAPUTO 611 ¶C. MAPUTO 776 ¶D. MAPUTO 513 ¶E. MAPUTO 802 Classified By: A/DCM Matthew Roth, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: This is the first of a three-part series on leadership in Mozambique. Power politics in Mozambique are opaque as politicians are compelled to balance personal fortunes, family obligations, and regional and ethnic considerations in the decision making process. Mozambique's power class is especially difficult to understand because the ruling-FRELIMO party and the state overlap almost completely, with the state being subordinate to the party. President Guebuza has spent his terms as FRELIMO's Secretary General and as President consolidating power. He has some trusted advisors within the FRELIMO Political Commission (the 17-member body that controls party policy) and elsewhere within government, including some childhood friends. His trusted circle, however, is getting smaller because Guebuza is effectively centralizing power. He concentrates economic benefits on fewer people, which in turn makes outsiders angry. There are several other prominent figures, while possessing their own political strength, who do not hold influence over Guebuza. END SUMMARY. -------------- GUEBUZA'S LEADERSHIP STYLE -------------- ¶2. (C) Based on extended assessment by Emboffs, Guebuza appears to be an intelligent power player who listens to many points of view and likes to read and receive briefs. He prefers to hear arguments face to face, and he does not reveal his opinion right away. Once he is finished listening, he pronounces his position and does not like to be questioned or challenged once he makes up his mind. Guebuza, considered by most to be the country's richest citizen, is money hungry but genuinely wants what is best for Mozambique*and sees no tension between those two goals. While Guebuza controls a large piece of Mozambique's economic pie, he is not considered overtly corrupt himself, even if he allows corruption among his ministers. He so far has been unwilling to prosecute high-level corruption, even on narcotics trafficking, and at the this point no clear evidence links him directly with the country's growing drug trafficking problem (REF A, B). Some business leaders complain that he keeps the best business opportunities for himself; they believe he should more widely spread patronage and the best opportunities. The Danish Ambassador recently commented that Guebuza "doesn't pass the bottle enough." A lifetime Frelimo power player, Guebuza comes across in person as a friendly, almost grandfather type, but he also has an authoritarian streak and will show his anger to his inner circle. -------------- PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS AND CABINET MEMBERS -------------- ¶3. (C) Guebuza holds a meeting every Tuesday with all cabinet and vice cabinet members. This "Council of Ministers" approves all laws and the details of legislation, 95 percent of which is drafted by the Executive before being passed on for what amounts to a rubber-stamp approval in the National Assembly (AR). Guebuza encourages debate at these meetings, but has a direct leadership style and will sometimes reprimand ministers in front of the group. The President also maintains a large staff of personal advisors on a wide range of topics (military, economic, political, legal, African affairs, and more). These people have the most frequent access to Guebuza; he listens to their positions, but ultimately makes his own decisions and expects his plans to be accepted. ¶4. (C) All presidential advisors report to the Ministry of the Presidency, headed by Antonio Correia Fernandes Sumbana. Minister of the Presidency Sumbana is close to and personally devoted to the President, and has the most interaction with him, but does not have his own independent power base. Other ministers describe Sumbana as a &Vice President8 because he organizes the President's schedule and any appointments must first be vetted through his office. The former Ambassador to Zimbabwe and former Chief of Civil Affairs, Sumbana is smart, sophisticated and extremely loyal. Sumbana's brother is the Minister of Sport and Tourism, and his sister-in-law is Amelia Sumbana, who is the Ambassador-designate to the United MAPUTO 00001013 002 OF 003 States and was chosen based on her easy access to Guebuza through her brother-in-law. Sumbana does not hesitate to criticize Western countries' involvement in Mozambique, and steadfastly defends FRELIMO. (REF C, D) ¶5. (C) Political advisor Renato Matusse is another close Guebuza ally. Largely considered a "yes man," Matusse is described as a chief aide de camp, and travels extensively with the President. He has excellent access to Guebuza but his ultimate influence is unknown --Matusse is not a threat to the President, which may contribute to his high level access. Matusse is an academic (anthropologist by training) and not a career politician. He wrote a popular, somewhat sycophantic biography of Guebuza. Matusse is closed at functions, not transparent, defensive on Zimbabwe, and generally reluctant to engage with the US. He speaks fluent English and studied in the UK. ¶6. (C) Economic advisor Carlos Simango is the President's key interface with the opposition. He is a lawyer who thinks operationally, and is open and talkative. He meets one-on-one with Guebuza and claims that the President has given orders not to touch the opposition in the run-up to October's elections. Other ministers respect Simango, and he even let the Charge listen in to his phone calls to prove how he can take action and instruct Ministers to get things done. Rumors are circulating that Simango is related to opposition figure Daviz Simango; in the 1970s Carlos Simango was responsible for communications with, and was sympathetic to Daviz Simango's father, who was in a reeducation camp at the time. Carlos Simango is coy when directly asked about a relationship, and the last name is common enough in Mozambique that any relationship could be purely coincidental. Simango is rumored to be connected with Mozambican intelligence, and his frequent unexplained absences from work functions stoke speculation that he is HIV positive. ¶7. (C) Arlete Matola is another influential presidential advisor. She is the Chief of Studies and responsible for the President's research staff and focuses on economic issues. She travels often with Guebuza and seems open to U.S. relations. Matola is described as bright and speaks English reasonably well. Matola is very open to engaging with Emboffs, unlike Matusse. ¶8. (C) General Eduardo Nihia is a former guerrilla commander and former Deputy Defense Minister. He is a close childhood friend of Guebuza's. Nihia continues to maintain a close personal friendship with the President and advises him on defense issues. Nihia owns several profitable companies. ¶9. (C) Marlene Magaia and Carlos Pessane are two younger advisors who are more junior. Magaia handles press relations for Guebuza, and at one time hosted a popular radio call-in show called "Confidences." Pessane, an engineer by training, is sometimes in the room with Guebuza during meetings (substituting for Matusse). -------------- PARTY INSIDERS - POWER BEHIND THE GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Top brass within FRELIMO generally prefer to stay behind the scenes, and personal relationships among the old guard are purposefully left a mystery to outsiders. The highest organ of FRELIMO is the Political Commission, which meets weekly and comprises 17 members headed by the President. The current Political Commission includes members of both the Executive and the National Assembly (AR). The FRELIMO party and the government overlap almost completely, and the government is, according to FRELIMO party doctrine, subordinate to the party. Members of the Political Commission are among those with the most influence on Guebuza. (REF E) ¶11. (C) Minister of Planning and Development Aiuba Cuereneia is politically connected and in charge of party finances. Cuereneia went to school in Cuba and is a member of the Cuban Students Association, a group whose advancement was blocked by Chissano. He has swiftly become quite powerful, and has the ability to task other ministers. He oversees port and airport revenues ensuring they fund FRELIMO party activities, and is suspected of selling the right to pass containers through customs without inspections to senior members of FRELIMO. Once a rising star and pegged at one point by some to be a future presidential contender, his reputation within FRELIMO appears to have been tarnished by allegations of corruption and possible links to narcotrafficking. Far from charismatic, he is also a rumored candidate for the Prime MAPUTO 00001013 003 OF 003 Minister job, though reputed health problems could interrupt his political career. ¶12. (C) Interior Minister Jose Pacheco served as the well-respected governor of Cabo Delgado, and before that a Deputy Minister of Agriculture. He brought to the ministry tough talk on corruption and was widely expected to clean up graft within the prisons and police forces, though this has not happened. The police force is widely seen as among the most corrupt government institutions, surpassed only by Customs. Pacheco is also considered to be a candidate for the Prime Minister in Guebuza's presumptive second term as president. Guebuza trusts Pacheco, who frequently travels with the President on his trips within Mozambique. ¶13. (C) Some liberation-era war heroes retain powerful positions in FRELIMO and have considerable influence over the President and government. Guebuza, himself an independence figure, looks to Alberto Joaquim Chipande and Marcelino Dos Santos, among others, as key advisors. Both men have impeccable liberation credentials. Chipande is the former Defense Minister and is infamous for ostensibly having fired the first shots in the revolution against the Portuguese. In a July press conference announcing new business ties between companies controlled by Guebuza and Chipande, Chipande surprisingly commented that people should not challenge senior FRELIMO members, like himself, who have enriched themselves through party ties because personal enrichment is not at odds with FRELIMO's socialist beliefs. Dos Santos was a founding member of FRELIMO, and was a member of the Presidential Council, a triumvirate with Samora Machel and Uria Simango. Dos Santos is responsible for much of the Marxist-Leninist ideology of the FRELIMO party, and served as the chair of the AR between 1987 and 1994. He is now well respected and seen as one of the last remaining founders and elder statesmen of the party. -------------- COMMENT: FRELIMO HEAVY HITTERS LEAD COUNTRY -------------- ¶14. (C) The FRELIMO party and Mozambican state overlap almost completely, compounding the difficulty of assessing which figures possess political influence. Guebuza's ever-shrinking inner circle are in favor today; though we might see some shakeup after the October election as he fights to balance his own preferences with party factionalism and business needs. Some local observers worry Guebuza will alter the constitution after the election to extend his term in office. Mozambique's Ambassador-designate to the U.S. Amelia Sumbana commented to the Charge recently that it seemed a shame for a popular president like Guebuza to have to step down after only two terms. Though internal jockeying within FRELIMO has already begun to become the heir apparent to succeed Guebuza, he is said to have intentionally picked a weak person (Filipe Paunde) to be the Secretary General of the FRELIMO party to discourage any potential rivals. Loyalty to Guebuza and FRELIMO, in that order, will remain the most important factor in determining an individual's influence within a Guebuza-led FRELIMO party. CHAPMAN