DIPLOMATIC CORPS RAISES ELECTIONS CONCERNS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001012 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ SUBJECT: DIPLOMATIC CORPS RAISES ELECTIONS CONCERNS WITH PRESIDENT REF: A. MAPUTO 1009 ¶B. MAPUTO 1007 ¶C. MAPUTO 978 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd Chapman, reasons 1.4 (b + d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a September 11 meeting with President Guebuza, the Charge and 16 members of the diplomatic community raised their concerns about recent disqualifications of several opposition parties from the legislative election on October 28 (Ref A and B). Guebuza appeared attentive and took the concerns of the diplomatic corps seriously, but said it was unwise for him to get too involved and make an arbitrary decision in this case, noting it was the role of the Constitutional Council (CC) to make a legal decision. Guebuza hoped that the upcoming elections would be free and fair such that the incoming administration would be able to govern with legitimacy. Acknowledging the growing social tensions, Guebuza closed the meeting saying "now please help me put out this fire." In a September 10 private conversation with the Charge, Minister of the Presidency Antonio Sumbana contradicted Guebuza's subsequent statements by confiding that though senior FRELIMO officials had not meddled in the National Electoral Commission's (CNE's) decision to disqualify opposition candidates, the party may be able to "encourage" CNE to re-qualify some candidates from the disqualified legislative lists. Guebuza's public seriousness seems undermined by Sumbana's private suggestion of political involvement in a decision which the international community believes will need to be rectified rapidly in order to avoid tarnishing the legitimacy of FRELIMO, the October 28 elections, and the campaign season, which officially begins September 14. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- CHARGE AND OTHER CHIEFS OF MISSION MEET WITH GUEBUZA -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In an hour-long meeting with President Guebuza on September 11 the Charge and 16 members of the diplomatic community (Ambassadors and Charges from 13 EU countries, along with Ambassadors from Norway, Switzerland, and Canada) raised their concerns about the National Electoral Commission (CNE) decision to disqualify many opposition parties from participating in the forthcoming elections (Ref A and B). Guebuza hosted the chiefs of mission in his Cabinet Room, and was joined by several advisors as well as Vice Foreign Minister of Foreign Affairs Henrique Banze. Sitting stoically at first, Guebuza listened attentively to the prepared joint statement prepared and read by British High Commissioner Andrew Soper which outlined the diplomatic community's significant concerns with the exclusion of various opposition candidates, which "creates an impression of exclusion from the political process rather than inclusion." The prepared statement also states that the "credibility of the elections in Mozambique could be seriously damaged...(which) could result in disturbances and violence." The statement closed by calling for the situation to be urgently resolved to allow for the campaign season to begin cleanly on September 14. Following the statement, the Italian, Norwegian, Dutch, and Swedish chiefs of mission reiterated the concerns expressed in the statement, calling for a level electoral playing field, and highlighted that the impressions already given of a less-than-fair system would have political ramifications. ¶3. (C) An attentive and serious Guebuza responded to the concerns of the diplomatic corps and acknowledged that impressions matter; however, he said that the Government of Mozambique (GRM) must work within the law, and not make arbitrary decisions. In this, he said the parties involved must submit their appeal to the CNE, which will then pass forward the appeal to the Constitutional Council (CC) for resolution. Guebuza confirmed several times that he could only follow the law, though it may be flawed, and not operate outside of it, noting that when he disagrees with decisions taken in the National Assembly (AR),he too must appeal to the CC. As such, Guebuza explained that with these elections, there must not be any attempt to make arbitrary decisions or negotiate a settlement, which had been done with little success in Africa; instead he called for transparency and legality. Guebuza said that he also hoped for free and fair elections on October 28 because that would be the source of legitimacy for the eventual winners. Standing up to conclude the meeting, Guebuza closed saying "now please help me put out this fire." -------------- -- MAPUTO 00001012 002 OF 002 MINISTER SUMBANA ENCOURAGES A CAUTIOUS APPROACH -------------- -- ¶4. (C) On the evening of September 10, Minister of the Presidency Antonio Sumbana, a powerful member of the Cabinet who has the ear of the President, called the Charge to discuss Ref A's televised meeting with CNE President Leopoldo da Costa, and the disqualification of opposition parties. Sumbana complained that civil society and the diplomatic community always find fault with FRELIMO in such situations. Sumbana attempted to raise an unlikely conspiracy theory suggesting that the CNE's decision could be the result of a FRELIMO insider intent on damaging the party's reputation. He said that FRELIMO was worried by perceptions of political exclusion created by the CNE decision, and denied the ruling party's involvement in the decision, claiming that FRELIMO's powerful Central Committee never recommended meddling with the elections (NOTE: This has been contradicted by several knowledgeable sources. END NOTE). Sumbana (unsuccessfully) tried to downplay the overall influence of the ruling party on government institutions, but did state that FRELIMO perhaps could encourage the CNE to be a bit more flexible and authorize additional candidates from the MDM's legislative lists as a means of appeasing Daviz Simango's party. In a criticism of MDM, Sumbana complained how aggrieved political parties ran to the press and embassies to solve their domestic political problems, when instead the parties needed to hire good lawyers to find a legal solution. He observed that MDM has alienated the CNE by going to the press, hardening the positions of all sides, thus making it more difficult to find a compromise solution. -------------- COMMENT: FRELIMO AND GUEBUZA ON THE HOT SEAT -------------- ¶5. (C) Members of the diplomatic community left the September 11 meeting with a moderate level of satisfaction with the President's seriousness--at a minimum it appears he understood the message that Mozambique's democratic credentials are in doubt. Most foreign and domestic observers believe that the final decision on resolving the current political mess rests with Guebuza himself, despite his protestations and repeated references to legal procedure. Sumbana's private statements to the Charge suggest that FRELIMO may be looking to strike a deal with opposition parties and allow some of their legislative candidates back on the lists. Based on their private and public statements, however, it appears unlikely that Daviz Simango's Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) would agree to horse-trading with FRELIMO. Civil society, including religious groups, independent media, and Mozambican intellectuals, are energized and presenting tough questions to the government, pushing the transparency issue hard in public and private. With the strong, united statements from the international community receiving prominent media attention as well, the next moves belong to the Electoral Commission and the political bosses who influence them. Meanwhile, a nervous and increasingly agitated MDM part continues its legal maneuverings and an invigorated civil society builds pressure on the GRM to choose a more inclusive approach prior to the September 14 start of the campaign season. CHAPMAN