ELECTION UPDATE: KEY TICKETS TAKE SHAPE, AQUINO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002428 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM RP SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: KEY TICKETS TAKE SHAPE, AQUINO LEADS POLLS REF: A. MANILA 2408 (DEFENSE SECRETARY RESIGNS) ¶B. MANILA 2218 (ERAP DECLARES) ¶C. MANILA 1901 (NOYNOY DECLARES) Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) With a November 30 filing deadline for candidates approaching, the Philippine election race has shifted into higher gear. Presidential contenders Manuel Villar and Gilberto Teodoro announced their vice presidential running mates, as Senator Benigno Aquino III retained a commanding lead in opinion polls. Increasing numbers of Arroyo Cabinet members began to leave their positions to begin active campaigning. The transience of Philippine political loyalty was again evident, as presidential candidates lured a hodgepodge of popular Senate candidates to their party banners -- no matter what the aspirants' political stripes. Congressional, gubernatorial and mayoral candidates have also begun calculating which presidential hopeful's coattails will most surely carry them into office. Defections from the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party indicate President Arroyo's stalwarts are uneasy about the odds for her anointed candidate, Teodoro, and are shopping for a better bet. Former President Joseph Estrada continues to insist he is a legitimate contender; formal registration of his candidacy will likely prompt a quick legal challenge. End Summary. FINALIZING PLANS -------------- ¶2. (C) The Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) began accepting formal filing of candidacy papers November 20; the relatively brief window for registration closes November 30. The looming registration deadline period has forced politicians to finalize their plans for the coming elections. Notable developments included: - Senator Manuel "Manny" Villar, the Nacionalista Party's presidential candidate, announced on November 17 that Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) Senator Loren Legarda would be his running mate. This pairing gives Villar a high-profile running mate (previously seen as a potential strong presidential candidate) who has the popularity of a former television personality while also having engaged as a Senator on climate change, women's rights, and other issues. - Former Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, the presidential candidate from the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party, announced on November 13 that former actor Eduardo "Edu" Manzano would be his running mate. This selection followed the withdrawal of Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno from the competition for the second spot on the Lakas-Kampi-CMD ticket. Teodoro, who remains near the bottom of opinion polls, likely hoped that Manzano's selection would help energize the public and provide additional charisma; Manzano has government experience, having served as Vice Mayor of Makati City from 1998-2001 and chaired the Optical Media Board from 2004-2009, but his selection surprised many political observers. - Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero resigned from the Nationalist People's Coalition, surprising the many who expected he would be the NPC's presidential candidate. Escudero announced his decision on October 28, delivering a broad swipe against all political parties, saying that they impose improper obligations on their candidates and restrict politicians' abilities to serve all people equally. (Comment: Escudero reportedly was unable to secure sufficient financing for his presidential run; his condemnation of political parties likely was his way of framing a pragmatic withdrawal from the race as a principled move. End Comment.) ¶3. (SBU) The Villar- and Teodoro-led tickets will compete primarily against the Liberal Party contenders, Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III and Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II, as well as the Force of the Philippine Masses party's duo of former President Joseph "Erap" Estrada and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay. We expect legal challenges to Estrada's candidacy as soon as he registers with COMELEC -- one politically active lawyer filed a petition in late October, seeking a preemptive COMELEC disqualification of Estrada, but the COMELEC quickly dismissed that request as premature, since Estrada had not yet filed his certificate of candidacy. MANILA 00002428 002 OF 003 (Ref B provides more background on the controversies surrounding Estrada's candidacy.) STRONG AQUINO POLL LEAD -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Recent opinion polls placed Aquino far ahead of the rest of the pack, with Villar clearly in second place. Sampling 1,800 Filipinos in late October, Pulse Asia found the following preferences (some results omitted): Aquino........... 44% Villar........... 19% Escudero......... 13% Estrada.......... 11% Teodoro.......... 2% Pulse Asia's findings tracked roughly with findings one month earlier by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) polling organization. SWS's poll did not restrict voters to expressing support for only one candidate, but it also found Aquino held a commanding lead, followed by Villar, with Teodoro near the bottom. DEFECTIONS FROM THE RULING PARTY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) As the main presidential tickets firmed up, candidates at every level -- national, provincial, local -- began their routine pre-election migration toward the presidential candidate they calculate had the best chance of succeeding in the May 10 poll. Unlike in the U.S., where longstanding political parties have clearly enunciated platforms laying out key policies, Philippine politics is largely personality-driven, with supporters coalescing around the most powerful political figure in order to benefit from political and budgetary largesse throughout a President's tenure. ¶6. (C) So far, the migration seems to be benefiting the Liberal Party based on the high poll numbers for Noynoy Aquino. Senator Villar's consistently solid performance also appears to be rallying candidates to his Nacionalista banner. The main loser so far in the political reshuffling appears to be the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD, based on Gilberto Teodoro's miserable poll numbers. Recent high-profile defections included Batangas Governor Vilma Santos-Recto and her husband (a former Senator),as well as Quezon City Mayor Feliciano Belmonte and others, who moved to the Liberal Party. A leading Lakas-Kampi-CMD official in Mindanao estimated publicly on November 18 that 30-40% of the party's officials had defected -- most going to Aquino's or Villar's camp -- although ruling party loyalists sought to downplay the impact. HEADING FOR THE EXITS -------------- ¶7. (C) Increasing numbers of Arroyo Cabinet Secretaries resigned or announced their intention to leave office to pursue their political plans. Gilberto Teodoro resigned as Secretary of National Defense November 16, turning the reins over to National Security Advisor Norberto Gonzalez, whose past unpredictable policy pronouncements have bewildered Embassy and Philippine government officials alike (ref A). Similarly, Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap, a key Arroyo advisor, announced plans to leave his post by the end of November. Press reports indicated that Palace Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita planned to run for Congress as well. If true, his departure would deprive President Arroyo of her right-hand man, with responsibility for all her major security and foreign policy initiatives, including counterterrorism and the Millenium Challenge Corporation compact effort. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The election campaign so far remains almost purely a popularity contest, as no candidate has begun to elucidate a coherent policy platform, and serious discussion of the many challenges facing the Philippines -- terrorism, insurgency, poverty, grossly inadequate economic and social infrastructure -- has been the exception. Noynoy Aquino's lead in the polls still appears based primarily on POSITIVE voter sentiment toward his deceased parents, which was the principal factor enabling him to secure the Liberal Party's MANILA 00002428 003 OF 003 presidential nomination (ref C). Aquino's ability to keep attention focused on his heritage is important, not least because the recent growth in his Liberal Party's followers has brought in an array of politically incompatible supporters, for whom the common thread is his parents' legacy. Aquino may also benefit from a virtuous cycle in which high poll ratings prompt defections and campaign contributions, which generate more excitement and a sense of inevitability, sustaining his standing in the polls. But the Liberals face a tough battle against two well funded campaigns. Senator Villar has made it clear he will use his large personal fortune to further his ambitions, and Gilberto Teodoro still has the formidable budget and campaign resources of the ruling party at his disposal. KENNEY