POLITICAL CONCERNS IN ILOCOS NORTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002199 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON RP CH SUBJECT: POLITICAL CONCERNS IN ILOCOS NORTE Classified By: Political Counselor Thomas B. Gibbons, reason: 1.4 (b) a nd (d). SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION -------------- ¶1. (C) Ilocos Norte, the birthplace of former President Ferdinand Marcos, is one of the Philippines' northernmost provinces, home to over 500,000 residents. The Marcos family remains influential there; Ferdinand Marcos Jr. holds one of the province's two seats in the House of Representatives, and the former President's nephew, Michael Keon, is the provincial Governor. In a recent visit by Poloff to Laoag, the capital of Ilocos Norte, Governor Keon discussed voters' political leanings and the prevalence of politically motivated violence. The Bishop of Laoag lamented endemic corruption and remarked that only the marginalized far left could claim to represent a break from the status quo. Laoag's Police Superintendent told us approximately 20 armed members of the New People's Army resided in Ilocos Norte, but they did not disturb the peace because the NPA used the province as a rest stop. ¶2. (C) Ilocos Norte's provincial Election Supervisor expressed concern about the introduction of nationwide automated vote tabulation for the May 2010 election; he worried he would have little time to train poll station workers and little control over the systems crucial to a smooth and credible election. Sino-Filipino businessmen told us Ilocos Norte provided a hospitable environment for them, although the local economy depended heavily on remittances from abroad. Various interlocutors attributed the establishment of a Chinese consulate in Laoag to Marcos family ties to Chinese officials. Subsequent to our visit, typhoon Parma hit Ilocos Norte with significant economic impact but causing few fatalities or injuries. End Summary and Introduction. GOVERNOR ON NATIONAL POLITICS, LOCAL VIOLENCE -------------- ¶3. (C) During a September 22-23 visit to Laoag, capital of Ilocos Norte province, Poloff called on Governor Michael Keon, a member of President Arroyo's Lakas-KAMPI party. Both Keon and, separately, Laoag Mayor Michael Farinas (also a party member),told us Lakas-KAMPI in Ilocos Norte had suffered no internal friction as the result of Manila-based politicians' recent attempts to challenge the legitimacy of the May 2009 merger of Lakas and KAMPI. (Note: The Commission on Elections recently dismissed the challenge; the dissenting politicians may seek redress in court. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Keon told us he was uncertain whether he would support Lakas-KAMPI candidate Gilbert Teodoro, the current Secretary of National Defense; he claimed some in Lakas-KAMPI circles found Teodoro's low standing in opinion polls dismaying. Nevertheless, Keon believed that, in the Ilocos Norte cities where Mayors had strong political control over their constituents, they likely could deliver votes for Teodoro. Teodoro's main rival in the province was Senator Manuel Villar; Keon assessed Villar had effectively built up a network of supporters by cultivating the (nationwide) Barangay Health Workers organization. ¶5. (C) Keon lamented the political violence in his province, estimating offhand that two dozen people had died in politically motivated killings over the past two years. He cited the September 4 fatal shooting of Ilocos Norte Electric Cooperative board president Lorenzo Rey Ruiz. Keon described Ruiz as a friend and claimed his murder had been directed by unknown persons hoping to take over Ruiz's job. Keon said Ilocanos often resorted to political violence because they could not receive justice from the court system. POLICE SUPERINTENDENT FOCUSED ON NPA -------------- ¶6. (C) In contrast to Keon, Laoag Police Superintendent Sterling Blanco told us that he considered the city peaceful. He anticipated no election-related violence in 2010, saying Mayor Farinas would likely run unopposed, and there was not yet any clear challenger to Governor Keon. Blanco seemed more concerned with the communist New People's Army (NPA), saying he believed there were around 20 armed NPA members in Ilocos Norte's provincial border areas. He claimed raw intelligence indicated some high-ranking NPA members MANILA 00002199 002 OF 003 habitually transited Laoag and viewed it as a safe place for rest and recreation. He believed the NPA would not jeopardize their access to Laoag by carrying out acts of violence there. ¶7. (C) Blanco told us he was satisfied with his progress in recently-initiated efforts to document unregistered firearms (part of a nationwide Philippine National Police effort). He told us that since he began in August, he had registered 50 firearms in Laoag; he aimed for a total of 200 before the October 31 conclusion of an amnesty period for owners of unregistered guns. BISHOP LAMENTS CORRUPTION -------------- ¶8. (C) Laoag Bishop Sergio Utleg privately lamented the state of politics throughout the Philippines. He cited Grace Padaca of nearby Isabela province as a rare example of a Governor who did not win office through vote-buying, but he said most politicians did, leaving them indebted to their financiers. The Bishop estimated offhand that it might cost a politician 20 million Pesos (almost 500,000 USD) to secure election as Mayor in a city like Laoag. He did not consider any of the presidential candidates likely to change the status quo or break with traditional political practices. Only the radical left presented voters with a genuine alternative noting that the far left had no prospect of gaining momentum because of a history of nationwide repression (Utleg's term) by the security forces. The Bishop assessed Liberal Party candidate Benigno Aquino III as "the least evil" of those likely to enter the race. ELECTION OBSERVATION -------------- ¶9. (C) We called on Father Leonardo Ruiz, who heads the provincial offices of the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV),which is accredited to observe elections, as well as the National Citizens' Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL),which conducts election-day "quick-counts." Ruiz also leads the local branch of NGO Vote-Care, which conducts public information campaigns. Ruiz told us Ilocos Norte elections typically entailed isolated incidents of violence, as well as vote-buying. But he claimed that elections generally represented the will of the electorate, and he expressed satisfaction that the NAMFREL quick-count tallies very closely approximated the final official figures. His efforts generally drew enough volunteers that he could have two people present at each of Ilocos Norte's approximately 1,500 polling stations. Multiple political parties typically also provided observers for the polling stations, he noted. ¶10. (C) Drawing on readily-accessible data from the 2001 election, Ruiz explained he was able to run his election-day efforts on a minimal budget. In 2001, he had received from the Social Action Center, NAMFREL, PPCRV, and other unspecified donors a total of 109,000 Pesos (slightly more than 2,000 USD at current exchange rates). All PPCRV and NAMFREL volunteers worked without pay, Ruiz noted, although many local parishes provided them with snacks. ELECTION OFFICIAL WORRIED ABOUT AUTOMATION -------------- ¶11. (C) Commission on Elections (COMELEC) Provincial Election Supervisor Alipio Castillo told us he was concerned about the automation of the upcoming election. COMELEC had substantial expertise in running elections, he said, but the change to computerized vote tabulation was unnerving. "We're used to lecturing people on how to do elections," he said. "Now we're being lectured to." He worried that COMELEC officials bore full responsibility for the election process, but they had to depend on corporate technicians to resolve any problems that might arise with the new computer systems. ¶12. (C) Castillo felt under significant time pressure -- COMELEC staff had not yet received training in the use of the computers, and yet they would have to become sufficiently familiar to train polling station workers, who typically were public school teachers. There were many aspects of the automated system which remained unclear to Castillo. He said he hoped that upcoming meetings with upper-echelon COMELEC officials in Manila would help clarify matters, but at the time of our meeting, he admitted he had more questions than answers about this topic. MANILA 00002199 003 OF 003 SINO-FILIPINOS LAUD TOLERANCE, LAMENT ECONOMY -------------- ¶13. (C) Leading members of the Chinese Filipino Chamber of Commerce told us Ilocos Norte provided a peaceful and tolerant environment for Sino-Filipinos; Filipinos of Chinese descent were well-integrated with ethnic Ilocanos, and, in contrast to Manila, Ilocos Norte was free of kidnap-for-ransom gangs targeting ethnic Chinese. The businessmen lamented the state of the economy, however, which they claimed was heavily dependent on remittances provided by the Ilocano diaspora. While Ilocos Norte in recent years had drawn tourists from China, foreign tourism had fallen earlier in the decade, after concern about the spread of various respiratory diseases in Southeast Asia. PRC CONSULATE IN LAOAG -------------- ¶14. (C) When asked the raison d'etre of the Chinese consulate in Laoag, the Chamber of Commerce members (and other interlocutors) said they could discern no reason why the PRC would need or want a diplomatic post in Ilocos Norte. They attributed the establishment of this consulate to close ties between Chinese officials and the Marcos family. Meeting with us in Manila, Ilocos Norte Congressman Ferdinand "Bong-Bong" Marcos Jr. confirmed he had lobbied PRC officials to establish the Laoag consulate. Marcos said the Chinese had opened the consulate after considering the long-term outlook for Chinese interests in Ilocos Norte, including tourism and Chinese investment. Marcos then noted tangentially that multiple business deals between Chinese and Ilocano parties had collapsed after allegations of kickbacks in a 2007 transaction between GRP officials and Chinese telecommunication firm ZTE. TYPHOON EFFECT -------------- ¶15. (U) Subsequent to our visit, typhoon Pepeng hit northern and central Luzon. Ilocos Norte was spared the worst of the typhoon's impact, though. According to recent reports, only two people in the province died from the typhoon's effects, and four sustained injuries. The GRP claimed that the typhoon affected approximately 144,000 province residents, although only 1,000 took shelter in evacuation centers. The typhoon destroyed 156 homes and partially damaged 1,374 others. The GRP estimated crop, livestock, and infrastructure damage totaled 847 million Pesos (approximately 18 million USD). As of October 13, the GRP had provided 524,000 Pesos (slightly over 10,000 USD) of assistance to Ilocos Norte. KENNEY