GOVERNMENT, MUSLIM REBELS AGREE TO INTERNATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001980 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL RP SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT, MUSLIM REBELS AGREE TO INTERNATIONAL PARTICIPATION IN PEACE TALKS REF: A. MANILA 1739 (EVEN AFTER DEADLY CLASH GOVERNMENT AFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR PEACE WITH MUSLIM REBELS) ¶B. MANILA 1575 (INFORMAL PEACE TALKS THIS WEEK) Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In keeping with pledges made during President Arroyo's July visit to Washington, the Philippine government has advanced discussions with the southern Philippines rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) regarding international participation in the peace talks and, in the process, has taken a significant step forward toward a formal resumption of negotiations. Government and MILF negotiators in Kuala Lumpur on September 15 signed an agreement endorsing the creation of an International Contact Group (ICG),aiming to establish a mechanism for interested countries to observe peace talks and offer advice to help bridge positions between the parties. While the agreement points to Organisation of the Islamic Conference and EU participation in the Contact Group, negotiators on both sides are open to participation of countries such as the U.S. and Japan, and, in fact, are actively seeking it. Parties will sound out interested countries in the coming weeks to assess what level of involvement -- financial or otherwise -- they might be willing to provide in the Contact Group. We will discuss with the GRP its vision of the ICG in the coming days and report post's views via septel. End Summary. AGREED FRAMEWORK FOR OBSERVERS AT PEACE TALKS -------------- ¶2. (C) Philippine government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) negotiators in Kuala Lumpur signed an agreement in the late night hours of September 15 creating a framework for an International Contact Group (ICG) to provide guidance and advice to the parties as they pursue a final negotiated settlement to the long-standing conflict in Mindanao. The ICG will include countries interested in the peace process as well as representatives from the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the EU, enabling them to observe the formal peace talks, conduct visits, exchange views, give advice, recommend experts, and meet with the parties to help resolve any difficult issues they encounter during the negotiations. A Philippine government official involved with the talks told us privately the Philippines had not expected that the parties would agree on a final text of the agreement, particularly after contentious afternoon discussions that the Chief Malaysian negotiator Datu Othman had to adjourn twice. However, after each side made minor concessions -- and once the MILF's agitated negotiators ate their evening Iftar meal -- they realized that they were, in fact, close to a final text. The agreement was signed at 10:30 p.m., and it was quickly forward to President Arroyo who was departing later that night for Turkey. NEGOTIATIONS TENSE -------------- ¶3. (C) The parties had sharply differing views about the size and role of the ICG, and that tension is reflected in the final document; the details of the ICG, though, have yet to be worked out. The Philippine government insisted that the ICG members be allowed to observe the talks; the MILF initially refused. The MILF also sought at least 10 countries for the ICG, but Philippine negotiators convinced them that size would make the ICG too unwieldy. The naming of the ICG was the most contentious point, and MILF negotiator Michael Mastura at one point railed against the Philippine negotiators for having backtracked by wanting to name the mechanism "Contact Group" instead of the MILF-preferred phrase "Guarantee Group," until it was pointed out to him that the term "Contact" was already used in the suspension of hostilities agreement that both sides signed July 29. The Philippine government was hesitant to use the word "International" in the ICG's title, but government negotiators eventually persuaded their own Philippine policymakers that the ICG would not meddle in the peace talks and would only function from the margins of the negotiations. Furthermore, the conflict in Mindanao was, to some degree, already internationalized because of the presence of international ceasefire observers. ICG COMPOSITION: MAJOR POWERS, OIC STATES -------------- MANILA 00001980 002 OF 002 ¶4. (C) The Philippine government and MILF discussed which countries might want to be potential members of the ICG, noting those which had already expressed interest, including the UK, Indonesia, and Syria -- but the Philippine official involved in the talks assured us that the composition of the group had not yet been determined, and that the participation of the U.S. and Japan would be highly sought after by both the Philippine government and the MILF. The Philippine government, the official said, would sound out countries to assess what level of commitment they were willing to make to the ICG, whether through financial contributions or as substantive partners in the ICG's discussions and operations. President Arroyo's talking points for her visit to Turkey included an invitation for the Turks to be involved in the ICG, and Saudi Arabia had also expressed interest. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Although agreement on the ICG text came as a surprise to both government and MILF negotiators, its signing demonstrates that the informal talks the two sides have held since this spring are beginning to pay off. The parties appear to have found a sensible rhythm in their informal discussions, and have maintained the newfound sense of cautious trust that they discovered at earlier informal talks. Now the parties must fine-tune the ICG framework and move forward on the agreement for Civilian Protection, the second precursor agreement that must be completed before the parties formally resume peace negotiations. We will reach out to our GRP contacts to further flesh out the GRP's vision of the ICG and to determine whether the U.S. ought to seek membership. KENNEY