MOMENTUM FOR AQUINO PRESIDENTIAL BID GROWS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001856 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RP SUBJECT: MOMENTUM FOR AQUINO PRESIDENTIAL BID GROWS AS LIBERAL PARTY LEADER BOWS OUT REF: MANILA 1663 (FAREWELL TO CORY) Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, reason: 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a surprise development, Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas on September 1 dropped his aggressive bid to seek the presidency in 2010, instead throwing his support to fellow Liberal Party Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino. Roxas ended his candidacy amid widespread emotion and nostalgia triggered by the August 1 death of Noynoy Aquino's mother, former President Corazon Aquino. It remains unclear whether Roxas' gracious withdrawal from the race might prompt other potential candidates to unite behind Aquino in opposition to whomever bears the standard of President Arroyo's Lakas-Kampi-CMD party. Aquino is not known for his charisma or strong legislative record, and we do not know how much support he commands among the grassroots. Nevertheless, a campaign based on his family legacy could energize many Filipinos and shape the 2010 election. End Summary. A LEADING CONTENDER BOWS OUT -------------- ¶2. (C) In an emotional September 1 press conference, Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II announced that he would not seek the presidency in 2010, instead offering his support to Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III. Roxas' move stunned his supporters; the grandson of the late President Manuel Roxas who founded the Liberal Party, he had already begun an energetic campaign, spending significant funds on televised "infomercials" in an effort to raise his profile. While Roxas was widely recognized as a significant candidate, he was not a front-runner. Over the past year, support for his candidacy, when compared with rivals', remained in the single digits, according to data from credible polling organization Social Weather Stations (SWS). ¶3. (C) Roxas' withdrawal came in response to repeated calls from Manila media commentators and former supporters of his mother's political career for Senator Aquino to run for the presidency. Pundits debated whether Roxas, the Liberal Party President, should run with party Vice Chairman Aquino as his running mate, or whether it would be more appropriate to flip that hypothetical ticket. An outpouring of emotion and nostalgia following the death of Aquino's mother, former President Corazon Aquino (reftel),energized this debate. (As of September 2, some main roads in Manila still feature prominent yellow banners bearing images of the former President and her husband, former Senator Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino, who was assassinated in 1983.) Roxas stated that he and Senator Aquino had discussed the race at length in recent days and that Aquino had "made it clear to me that he wanted to carry the torch of leadership." Roxas cast the coming presidential race in starkly manichean terms, saying he would support Aquino "to bring us to the realization of our dream: Good triumphing over evil" through an Aquino presidency dedicated to "clean, honest, selfless public service." HEEDING THE SIRENS' CALL? -------------- ¶4. (C) Prior to his mother's death, Aquino appeared highly unlikely to become a 2010 presidential candidate. (No respondents named him in a June SWS poll, when pollsters posed an open-ended request to name good leaders who might succeed President Arroyo.) Throughout August, as some opinion-shapers urged publicly that he run for the highest office, Aquino remained coy, indicating he had not yet decided his own preference. And although he joined Roxas for the September 1 press conference, Aquino refrained from commenting about his own plans, instead asking the press to focus on Roxas' gracious remarks. But Roxas' comments left no doubt that Aquino would run, and Roxas pledged that he and Aquino would not be divided, and that he would stand with his fellow Senator -- leaving the clear impression that he would seek the vice presidency on Aquino's ticket. UNITING THE OPPOSITION - AND STYMIEING ESTRADA? -------------- -- ¶5. (C) Roxas' withdrawal comes less than two months before the deadline for the registration of presidential candidates. Still, the political playing field remains cluttered with both credible and nuisance presidential candidacies. President Arroyo's detractors have publicly raised concern that a ballot featuring multiple opposition figures would MANILA 00001856 002 OF 002 split the votes of Arroyo's critics and allow her anointed standard-bearer to win the presidency with a mere plurality. ¶6. (C) One key question, therefore, is whether Aquino can unite potential candidates from outside of the Liberal Party behind his own campaign. Following Roxas' announcement, a spokesman for Nacionalista Party Senator Manuel "Manny" Villar indicated Villar's candidacy remained on track; he framed Roxas' decision as part of the Liberal Party's internal decisionmaking process. Former President Joseph "Erap" Estrada, however, spoke positively of Roxas' move and hinted that a political consensus in Aquino's favor might prompt him to reconsider his own intention to run again for the presidency. STORIED BLOODLINES, LESS LUSTROUS CAREER -------------- ¶7. (C) Senator Aquino, born on February 8, 1960, received a bachelor's degree in economics in 1981 from Ateneo de Manila and worked in the private sector until 1998. He has never married. Aquino has proven that he can compete politically on both the provincial and national level, winning election as a member of the House of Representatives from Tarlac province in 1998, and winning a Senate seat in 2007. He has also held various positions in the Liberal Party, including Secretary General (1999 - 2002) and, since 2006, Vice Chairman. During a 1987 coup attempt against his mother, Aquino was seriously injured by gunfire, and three of his aides died from wounds. ¶8. (C) Still, most political observers, including his late mother, agree that he is not a natural politician, lacking the charisma and aggressive political agenda that usually propels political candidates. Cory Aquino confided to the Ambassador in the year before her death that it had taken a massive effort by the entire Aquino clan -- Noynoy's celebrity sister, Kris, her husband, basketball star James Yap, as well as heavy doses of Cory Aquino's own political pull, to get Noynoy elected to the Senate. Since taking office, Aquino's record as a legislator has been lackluster. He has not played a leading role in the House or Senate, and his views on many controversial issues remain unknown. Noynoy's own political boosters suggest that this uncontroversial nature will play well with Filipinos who generally perceive him as clean. We are not aware of corruption allegations against him. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Just as the 1983 assassination of Senator Ninoy Aquino propelled his wife, Cory, into presidential politics, so too her death has unexpectedly transformed the political landscape, launching her son on a quest for the presidency. Whether the relatively untested (and admittedly uncharismatic) Noynoy Aquino can unite a fractious opposition and win the May 10 presidential poll remains highly uncertain, though Senator Roxas' high-profile concession in the name of "country before self" should help. It is not yet clear who will fund his campaign or provide strategic guidance. It also is unclear how powerfully Aquino's heritage will resonate with younger-generation voters who may not easily recall his parents' role in ending the Marcos dictatorship. But the Aquino surname means much to older Filipinos, and Aquino's entry into the race may change what appeared to be a likely free-for-all into a highly symbolic contest based on Senator Roxas' resonant call to put "country before self." At the very least, Aquino's rapid ascent to the front ranks of presidential contenders illustrates the deep revulsion at all levels of Philippine society with the widespread corruption and influence peddling that has characterized Philippine politics in recent years. End Comment. KENNEY