PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT TO RESUME TALKS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 001645 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PINR PREL PTER RP SUBJECT: PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT TO RESUME TALKS WITH COMMUNIST REBELS REF: A. MANILA 1586 ¶B. MANILA 1219 ¶C. 2008 MANILA 1795 Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As referred to briefly in President Arroyo's July 27 State of the Nation Address (reftel A), long-defunct negotiations with the communist-affiliated National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) coalition will likely be resumed in Oslo, Norway during the second week of August. Following a lengthy hiatus since the collapse of the last round of talks in 2004, each side views the August meeting as a chance to revisit unfinished business and to influence the public in the lead-up to May 2010 national elections. The ambitious leader of the government's negotiating panel expressed hope that talks will ultimately achieve a breakthrough and secure a comprehensive peace agreement. Whether or not a final agreement is reachable, convening of talks will provide useful momentum to the long-delayed peace process. The Philippine government claims that both sides agreed to discard preconditions for talks, including the NDFP's insistence on its removal from U.S. and E.U. terrorist lists. The diminished but still-violent communist insurgency, weakened by international terrorist finance sanctions and its aging leadership, may view this as the best time to cut a peace deal with the government. END SUMMARY. NEGOTIATORS ANNOUNCE NEW PEACE TALKS -------------- ¶2. (U) Talks between the government and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP),a coalition of far-left political groups, unions, and others, began in 1992, but ultimately failed in 2005 because the government refused the NDFP's demand that the Philippines seek the removal of the NDFP member organizations Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and New People's Army (NPA) from designation as terrorist organizations, and the NPA refused to agree to a ceasefire (reftels B and C). However, on July 8 the Philippine government and the NDFP announced their intention to reconvene peace talks in August in Oslo, Norway. Both parties said that a joint statement outlining the August agenda and initial points of agreement would be released in July, although no such statement has yet emerged. Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo did, however, make brief reference to renewed talks in her July 27 State of the Nation Address (reftel A). These developments follow June's informal meetings hosted by the Norwegian government at the Hague, where the Philippine government agreed to once again permit the international travel of NDFP negotiators. NDFP negotiating panel chairman Luis Jalandoni, returning to Manila July 12 from the Netherlands with special permission from Philippine authorities to visit an ill relative, told press that preparations were underway for a resumption of talks. Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founder Jose Marie Sison, exiled in the Netherlands, expressed satisfaction about the planned resumption of talks, which he said would focus on "social and economic reforms." ¶3. (C) Responding to press queries, President Arroyo's Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita said that the two sides had abandoned their preconditions for talks: the Philippine government will no longer insist on a ceasefire declaration by the NDFP, and NDFP will not demand Philippine government support to remove the group from U.S. and E.U. terrorist lists. Ermita's statement notwithstanding, NDFP negotiating panel spokesperson Fidel V. Agcaoli seemed to indicate in a July 13 statement that the issue of terrorist designations could still be part of discussions. A forthcoming joint statement, he said, should assert Filipinos' "national sovereignty and territorial integrity over incidents occurring in the Philippines," because "foreign governments have no right to label as terrorism what are deemed as acts of belligerency in a civil war under International Law." GOVERNMENT PANEL CHAIR SEES POLITICS AT PLAY -------------- ¶4. (C) In a frank July 14 discussion with emboff, government negotiating panel chairman Professor Nieves Confesor MANILA 00001645 002.2 OF 003 (protect) said both sides were eyeing May 2010 national elections, and likely hoped to score public relations points with voters. President Arroyo, she noted, vowed to end the communist and Muslim insurgencies by the end of her term, and, while that may no longer be possible, some in the government see an opportunity to break the current deadlock by opening new talks that may carry over into the next administration. Confesor said that "anything is possible, and maybe the talks will achieve a comprehensive peace agreement." She cautioned, however, that the Sri Lankan government's success against the Tamil Tigers has encouraged the Arroyo administration's hawks, who advocate a military solution. Confesor stated unequivocally that the Philippine government made no promises to the NDFP other than the reinstatement of travel immunity to entice their return to talks; the NPA asked for the release of four imprisoned members, but the government refused the request. Still, while peace was the ultimate goal, she emphasized that -- no matter what the outcome of the talks -- "the NPA must go." NDFP LEADERS SEEK INFLUENCE AND MOVEMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to the motives of the insurgents, Confesor suggested that NPA founder Jose Sison, who is in the Netherlands fighting court decisions that have denied his asylum claim, also wants peace talks to proceed because he is chafing under the restrictions the terror list designation imposes on his finances and movements. Sison fervently hopes that the Philippine government will support his removal from the list. According to an official at the Office of the Presidential Advisor on the Peace Process, the talks will give the NDFP renewed credibility ahead of the 2010 elections, which will provide NPA fighters additional revenues, as provincial candidates pay extortion fees to the NPA in exchange for being allowed to campaign safely in remote areas. AUGUST TALKS ALL ABOUT "HORSE TRADING" -------------- ¶6. (C) The Geneva-based Center for Humanitarian Dialogue's Manila director David Gorman (protect) suggested that formal peace talks would pick up at roughly the same place they left off in 2004 -- that is, with a full plate of unfinished work. Talks could address social and economic issues, and the government's ongoing support for reinstatement of travel immunity, which Gorman identified as one of the NDFP's key goals. While the talks could bring welcome momentum to the Philippines-NDFP peace process, Gorman likened them to "horse trading," where the Philippines, and President Arroyo in particular, could demonstrate commitment to peace with communist insurgents, and the NDFP could obtain some freedom of movement and declare victory for having withstood the Philippine military's advances. North Central Mindanao NDF leader Cesar Renerio struck this theme in a July 11 statement, claiming "The resumption of peace negotiations between the GRP and the NDFP this coming August confirms that the AFP has run out of gas against the NPA. This constitutes one more victory for the people in the struggle for democracy, justice, and freedom." COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Under UNSC 1267 and other UN Security Council resolutions, the NPA and its leaders such as Jose Sison have been badly handicapped financially, diminishing the organization's reach. Although the NPA is a much-diminished organization, now at the lowest point of influence and strength in its 40-year history, it nonetheless remains a dangerous guerrilla force to be reckoned with, as illustrated by its extortion of "revolutionary taxes," its killing of government troops, law enforcement officials, and civilians, and its ability to break its members out of jails. However, the leadership of the NDFP-CPP-NPA is aging; Jalandoni's return to the Philippines was a visit to his elderly dying sister. Lastly, its tired orthodox communist ideology no longer holds great appeal to the vast majority of young Filipinos, putting into question the sustainability of the NDFP's "Revolution." Some in the NDFP-CPP-NPA leadership MANILA 00001645 003 OF 003 obviously view this as the right time to cut a deal with the government. Although the basically irreconcilable views of the government and NPA negotiators always risk sending the talks off-track, for now, both parties' measured and cautious approach offer a meaningful opportunity for engagement and a real possibility for an eventual peace deal. KENNEY