BAHRAIN,S F-16S GROWING OBSOLETE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 000079 BAGHDAD FOR AMBASSADOR ERELI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2019 TAGS: MASS MARR PGOV BA SUBJECT: BAHRAIN,S F-16S GROWING OBSOLETE REF: MANAMA 2 Classified By: CDA Christopher Henzel for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Secretary of the Air Force's Office for International Affairs (SAF/IA) has informed Bahrain Defense Forces (BDF) leadership several times over the past four years that their 21 F-16 aircraft will require avionics and engine upgrades in order to remain interoperable with coalition aircraft and to maintain current levels of mission capability. The BDF agrees that these upgrades are needed, but says Bahrain cannot afford them. Post expects the planes' mission readiness and ability to operate with American and coalition planes to decline significantly in the next five to ten years without the upgrades. End summary. Avionics Upgrade: $300-400 million -------------- ¶2. (C) The U.S. Air Force (and other F-16 users) have performed major upgrades to their F-16s' avionics systems. The BDF has been offered a similar upgrade, but balked at the $300M to $400M price tag. SAF/IA has briefed the BDF leadership on several occasions that the current avionics system in their aircraft will become ever more difficult to maintain and could be unsupportable in 10 years due to parts obsolescence. By 2013, Bahrain will be the only country using this old configuration. As the system ages, maintenance costs will increase and combat effectiveness will decrease. Eventually, with no pipeline to support them, the viability of the BDF's 21 F-16s will become increasingly uncertain. Furthermore, the upgrade kit production line is scheduled to close in the near future. This would effectively leave the Bahrain Defense Force with no commercially available means to upgrade. If Bahrain chooses to wait and production of the kits ends, costs will increase even further. Engines Overhaul: $60 to $80 million -------------- ¶3. (C) In addition, F-16 engineers estimate that Bahrain's aircraft engines will begin to reach cycle limits in June 2009, necessitating overhaul and replacement of some key parts. The relatively high ($60M to $80M) cost of these replacement parts has figured into the Bahrain Defense Force's decision to postpone the upgrade purchase. Some aircraft could be grounded if the decision to purchase the overhaul kits is not made within the next twelve months. The BDF has already begun to reduce its flying schedule and it has some capability to rotate engines with low flying hours through the fleet. This will delay the first groundings, but ultimately require subsequent groundings to happen more quickly. Muddle through, or Look for New Aircraft? -------------- ¶4. (C) At this time, the avionics upgrade is on hold due to budget restraints. We expect that the engine overhaul program will be funded, but not in time to avoid a few aircraft being grounded for an extended period. ¶5. (C) Due to the extremely high cost to upgrade and sustain the F-16 fleet, the option to acquire new aircraft has been discussed by BDF leadership. While the purchase of any new aircraft would be much more expensive than upgrading their F-16s, the idea of having a completely new fighter may be more acceptable in this culture, than the perception of pouring money into an "old aircraft." ¶6. (C) BDF officials may consider options to purchase fighter aircraft from other countries. They have done this with other defense systems: the BDF recently purchased eight British Aerospace Hawks, which are primarily training aircraft with very limited combat capability. Some in the BDF recently considered purchasing Chinese artillery, but BDF leadership vetoed the proposal because it did not wish to acquire equipment that was not NATO-compatible. ¶7. (C) Comment: Bahrain has a very limited defense budget compared to its GCC neighbors, though its defense spending as a percentage of GDP is 5.1% (more than the U.S. and more than twice the rate of most NATO countries). We expect the Bahrainis to make do with the F-16s in their current configuration, at least for the foreseeable future. The BDF Staff understands the impact of this policy for their interoperability and mission readiness, but view it as a non-starter to ask the country's leadership now to fund all the upgrades and overhauls, especially as the government faces a fiscal crisis due to low oil prices (reftel). ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** HENZEL