ANEMIC TURNOUT SO FAR FOR ARRESTED SHIA ACTIVISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000057 SIPDIS BAGHDAD FOR AMBASSADOR ERELI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PHUM KISL BA SUBJECT: ANEMIC TURNOUT SO FAR FOR ARRESTED SHIA ACTIVISTS REF: A. MANAMA 50 ¶B. 08 MANAMA 845 ¶C. 08 MANAMA 593 Classified By: CDA Christopher Henzel for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: No more than two hundred supporters of two radical Shia activists turned out for skirmishes with riot police over the past week, far fewer than expected. Amnesty International issued a carefully-worded statement on the arrests. Meanwhile, the moderate Shia Wifaq party staged an orderly protest on an unrelated issue that drew over 12,000 marchers. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On January 26 Bahraini authorities arrested Hassan Musheima and Mohammed Habib Al Maqdad, founding president and spiritual guide respectively of the radical Shia Haq movement (ref A). A third Shia activist, Abduljalil Singace, was detained for less than 24 hours then released on bail. ¶3. (SBU) The Bahraini government has long blamed Haq for inspiring the vandalism and small street clashes with police that take place almost every week in Shia neighborhoods here. The stated reason for the three arrests, however, was the three activists' failure to answer a summons to give statements to prosecutors investigating 13 other Shia men detained for an alleged terrorist plot (ref B). In a nuanced statement, Amnesty International said January 30 that, "if the two (Musheima and Maqdad) are being held solely because of their non-violent political activities, including criticism of the government, then (Amnesty) would consider them to be prisoners of conscience and call for their immediate and unconditional release." The Public Prosecution responded on February 1 in a statement that highlighted the arrests' connection to the alleged plot. Shia contacts tell us Musheima and Maqdad are being visited daily by attorneys and family, and that the Public Prosecution has authorized medical treatment outside of the jail for the 61-year old Musheima, who suffers from diabetes and hypertension. An Underwhelming Turnout from Haq -------------- ¶4. (C) Bahrain's police chief, MG Abdul Latif Al Zayani, told CDA January 29 that riot police had prepared for large street battles with supporters of Musheima and Maqdad. In the event, however, Al Zayani said there was one large clash, between police and about 200 rioters near Musheima's home in Jidhafs January 26. Since then, Musheima's supporters have skirmished with police almost every evening, but have never mobilized more than a few dozen youths at a time. There have been several arrests and minor injuries. Al Zayani's account tracks with local media reports and what we have seen ourselves. ¶5. (C) Nizar Al Qari, a member of the moderate Shia Wifaq party's internal Ulema Council, told poloff January 28 that he was "underwhelmed" by the demonstrations. He credited the police with making an effort to control the skirmishes with only the minimum of force necessary. As an example, Al Qari described a disturbance in Sanabis on January 27 during which he witnessed police officers moving quietly up a side street in order to outflank and arrest rioters, rather than relying on tear gas to disperse troublemakers and bystanders alike. ¶6. (C) Al Qari cautioned that Musheima still commands the respect of many Shia, who credit him as a leader of the opposition negotiating team that won GOB permission in 2001 for Shia exiles to return home. Al Qari warned that any misstep on the part of the security services could weaken Wifaq's support and bring many more protesters into the streets. A Large Wifaq Rally -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Wifaq, meanwhile, went ahead January 30 with a rally that had been planned before the January 25 arrests. At least 12,000 demonstrators turned out to protest against an alleged acceleration of the Bahraini government's long-standing practice of granting citizenship to foreigners, usually Sunnis. PolFSN observed Wifaq functionaries carefully controlling the rally, ensuring that participants did not stray from the route, that they displayed only Bahraini (and not Hizballah) flags, and that they boarded buses at the conclusion of the event. However, as the Wifaq rally concluded, several dozen youths on a side street threw stones at police, who responded with tear gas. There were no reports of arrests or injuries. Wifaq contacts tell us the MANAMA 00000057 002 OF 002 rioters were Haq supporters of Musheima. ¶8. (C) Comment: In the wake of the arrests of Musheima and Maqdad, the Bahraini police (and we) expected Haq to cause more trouble than it actually did. The leadership of Wifaq played an important role in maintaining calm in the Shia community. Wifaq condemned the arrests publicly but has been coordinating with the authorities behind the scenes. In addition, it appears Haq's hard-core support may not extend far beyond the regulars who take part in Haq-inspired street clashes. The large, orderly Wifaq demonstration, contrasted with Haq's underwhelming, violent response to its leaders' arrests, demonstrate that most Bahraini Shia still believe the best hope for redress of their grievances lies in Wifaq's strategy of non-violent politics. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** HENZEL