SHIA WIFAQ PARTY BEGINS TO FOCUS ON 2010

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000342 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BA SUBJECT: SHIA WIFAQ PARTY BEGINS TO FOCUS ON 2010 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION REF: 08 MANAMA 336 Classified By: CDA Christopher Henzel for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Shia Wifaq party is beginning to organize itself for the Fall 2010 parliamentary elections. One leading Wifaqi says the party will aim to win just one additional seat in the lower, elected, house. This would leave Wifaq in the minority, suggesting a quiet understanding with the government remains intact. End summary. ¶2. (C) Saeed Al Majed, a close adviser to Wifaq party leader Ali Salman, told A/DCM on June 7 that Salman and his inner circle had begun preparing for the 2010 parliamentary election. He confirmed that Salman would relinquish his seat in parliament, but would retain his position as party leader. This would allow Salman to focus on "big picture" issues. Deputy floor leader Khalil Marzook will take charge of Wifaq's agenda within parliament. (Note: See reftel for an analysis of Wifaq leadership which identified Marzook as the most likely candidate to take operational command of the parliamentary bloc. End note.) ¶3. (C) Al Majed also claimed that a small core of advisers assembled by Salman is currently debating the future direction of Wifaq. At issue is the Shia identity of the party. Al Majed asserted that he has advocated for outreach to Sunnis in order to dilute Wifaq's strong sectarian identity. He reasoned that welcoming Sunnis into the party would affirm to those who remain suspicious of Wifaq's loyalty that it is a genuine opposition party whose identity is Bahraini rather than Shia. So far, he allowed, there has been no indication that Wifaq's inner circle is prepared to make any significant effort to bring in Sunnis. ¶4. (C) Wifaq's 2010 party list will include a number of new faces, though Al Majed could not yet provide names because the internal party council has not yet settled on a candidate list. Of the current 17 Wifaq MPs, he expects only six or seven will return to parliament. He also indicated that there would likely be fewer "imama" (turbans - i.e. Shia clerics) representing Wifaq in the chamber - "two or three," down from the current five. Al Majed expressed his hope that by the 2014 election cycle, the political process will have "matured" to the point where there will be fewer "fundamentalist" MPs on both the Sunni and Shia sides of the aisle. -------------- Prepared for Another Term as a Minority Party -------------- ¶5. (C) Assessing Wifaq's chances in 2010, Al Majed said he believed it would be a "tough fight," but that Wifaq would win 18 seats. Al Majed made no mention of any desire to mount a serious challenge for a parliamentary majority, despite the fact that Shia are 65-to-70 percent of Bahrain's citizen population. Wifaq currently holds 17 of the 40 seats in the chamber, and one independent MP caucuses with Wifaq for a total of 18. The remaining 22 seats are held by three Sunni blocs and three "independent" Sunni MPs, all of whom support the government. Most observers believe that the government created the 40 constituencies in such a way as to ensure that it maintains the votes it needs to keep control of the lower house of parliament. ¶6. (C) Comment: We are not surprised to hear that Ali Salman will step away from parliament. He has said several times, both publicly and privately to us, that he was frustrated with the daily grind of being an MP and that he wanted to refocus on strategic leadership issues. Neither are we surprised that Marzook will assume day-to-day leadership on the floor. He has taken on increasing responsibility during this most recent session, and ably guided the bloc as it aligned with the Sunni blocs to force the government's hand on a high-profile social spending project. ¶7. (C) Comment continued: Al Majed's comment that Wifaq was aiming to take only 18 seats suggests that the rumored 2006 understanding between Wifaq leaders and the government remains intact. We have seen no indication that the government is prepared to redraw the constituency boundaries that produced the current parliament in 2006. Salman has told us repeatedly that he believes Wifaq and the Shia community have more to gain from political participation than from a boycott, even though he believes the electoral system stacks the deck against him. As Bahraini politics move into election mode over the coming year, Wifaq will likely pay public lip service to seeking an outright majority, but Al Majed's comment seems to indicate the party leadership MANAMA 00000342 002 OF 002 realizes that, for now at least, politics is, indeed, the art of the possible. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** HENZEL