SCENESETTER FOR SPECIAL ENVOY MITCHELL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000236 SIPDIS FOR S/E MITCHELL'S PARTY FROM CDA CHRISTOPHER HENZEL BAGHDAD FOR AMBASSADOR ERELI E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2029 TAGS: PREL KWBG KPAL TU IS BA SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SPECIAL ENVOY MITCHELL Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Christopher Henzel, for reasons 1 .4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Bahrain is eager to see the Obama administration,s peacemaking efforts succeed, and your visit April 20 will be big news here. King Hamad will receive you at his palace in Safariyah, joined by Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmad bin Mohammad, and others. Ambassador Ereli, who is nearing the end of his TDY in Iraq, will be in Bahrain for your visit. Moderates vs. Extremists -------------- ¶2. (S) King Hamad presides over a genteel tug-of-war between modernizers and reactionaries in his own Al-Khalifa clan. The modernizing elements (led by his son, Crown Prince Salman, and Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid) are actively seeking a means by which to outflank and marginalize extremists, both within Bahrain and in the Arab world. The Crown Prince has told us explicitly that as long as the Israeli)Palestinian conflict festers, it will provide fuel to the conservative Sunni elements within Bahrain that oppose the openness and reform that he sees as indispensable for the country's growth and prosperity. It also empowers Hamas, Hizballah and Iran, whom the Bahraini leadership consider a threat to the region and their regime. Crown Prince Salman and Shaikh Khalid have urged the USG to make it clear to those supporting extremism that they will pay a price in terms of their relationship with the U.S. They are referring principally to Qatar, whose foreign policy ) particularly its support for Hamas - is viewed in Manama as dangerous. The Crown Prince and Shaikh Khalid view other Arab moderates like the UAE and Jordan as natural allies, and often collaborate with them. The &Other8 Shaikh Khalid -------------- ¶3. (S) On the other side of the tug-of-war, occasionally (and temporarily) pulling Bahrain's foreign policy in unhelpful directions, are Al-Khalifas close to the Sunni religious parties who are the majority in Bahrain's elected lower house of parliament. For instance, they successfully advocated for Khalid Mishaal,s official visits to Bahrain in September, 2008 and March, 2009. They also oppose compromise with Bahrain's Shia majority, and are sullen over the mass pardon the King granted this week to 178 Shia security detainees. The Minister of the Royal Court, Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmad bin Salman (not to be confused with FM Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmad bin Mohammad) is one of these hard-liners, and may join your meeting with the King. If this &other8 Shaikh Khalid is present, you may find FM Shaikh Khalid more circumspect than he was in Washington. FM,s Plan to Engage with Israeli Media -------------- ¶4. (S) FM Shaikh Khalid appreciated his meeting with you in Washington, and told me April 16 that he would try to find some steps that could be taken within the spirit of the Arab Peace Initiative in order to support you and the new administration. He added that he would like to engage with the Israeli media, and that it would help him if you could tell the King that GOB contact with Israeli media would be helpful. In response to my observation that Bahrain had gone much further than this over the past two years, engaging directly with the Israeli government publicly and privately, the FM said he could no longer defend internally his past &close8 contacts with Israel, in light of FM Lieberman,s statement about Annapolis. Shaikh Khalid hopes the U.S. and moderate Arabs will be able to persuade the Netanyahu government to walk back from this position, and attend a Moscow &Annapolis II8 meeting. Regional Proposal: Shelved for Now -------------- ¶5. (S) Last September, FM Shaikh Khalid proposed a new regional organization that would have included Iran and Israel. (The proposal was reportedly the result of an early-2008 brainstorming session between King Hamad and MANAMA 00000236 002 OF 002 President Gul of Turkey.) The proposal never came to much, but it was an indicator of Bahrain's desire to be seen as a creative contributor to Arab-Israeli diplomacy. The FM told me April 16 that during Gul,s visit to Bahrain April 15, Gul and King Hamad had agreed that the proposal for a new organization proposal should be shelved until after &we re-start a dialogue8 with Israel. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** HENZEL