NICARAGUA'S REGIONAL ELECTIONS - THE MORE THINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000859 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN AND DRL STATE PASS TO USAID TREASURY FOR SENNICH E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA'S REGIONAL ELECTIONS - THE MORE THINGS DON'T CHANGE REF: A. MANAGUA 554 ¶B. 08 MANAGUA 1392 ¶C. 08 MANAGUA 1351 ¶D. 08 MANAGUA 1101 ¶E. 08 MANAGUA 982 ¶F. 08 MANAGUA 939 ¶G. 08 MANAGUA 761 ¶H. 08 MANAGUA 209 Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, reasons 1.4(b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 30, Nicaragua's Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) established the election calendar for the Atlantic coast's regional elections, which will take place March 7, 2010. The corrupt CSE magistrates who manipulated the system and were complicit in the massive fraud in the November 2008 municipal elections remain the main obstacle to ensuring free, fair, and transparent regional elections. The CSE has already fired warning shots regarding party participation, voter registration, and electoral observation. Nicaraguan civil society and opposition groups have expressed concern that Nicaragua appears headed for another fraudulent election, with likely negative consequences for national elections in 2011. End Summary. -------------- CSE Issues Electoral Calendar -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On July 30, the CSE established the election calendar for the Atlantic coast's regional elections, scheduled for March 7, 2010. These contests will determine who will fill the 48 seats of the regional councils for the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) and the South Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAS). Among the authorities and powers vested in these councils is the ability to authorize the extraction of natural resources through the granting of concessions. The regional councils also prioritize development projects within their respective regions, although they rely on the central government for their budgets. ¶3. (SBU) The CSE calendar establishes a series of dates leading up to the regional elections. Some of the more important dates are: - Through September 12, 2009: applications accepted for political party alliances; - September 18, 2009: CSE approval of political party alliances; - September 7 - 30, 2009: presentation of candidates; - November 6, 2009: official publication of candidates in national register ("La Gaceta"); - Through December 6, 2009: verification of voter �00A;registration list; - December 7, 2009: last day to apply for a voter registration card/identity card; - By January 21, 2010: establishment of procedures and participation of observers; - January 21, 2010: opening of official campaign; - February 5, 2010: publication of final voter registration list; - March 3, 2010: closure of official campaign; - March 7, 2010: election day; - March 22, 2010: publication of provisional results; - April 1, 2010: proclamation of official results; and - May 4, 2010: inauguration of elected officials. -------------- -------------- Calendar Isn't the Problem - It's the Corrupt Officials -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) CSE Chief of Staff Rodrigo Barreto told us that the Atlantic coast elections would run basically in the same way as last November's elections, but intimated the fraud which characterized them as well as the January 2009 regional elections might not be as flagrant for the sake of appearances. With the exception of two magistrates whose MANAGUA 00000859 002 OF 002 terms expire in February 2010, the CSE leadership will otherwise remain the same and this council will manage the elections as it had in 2008. The magistrates that will continue in office include CSE President Roberto Rivas, the person ultimately responsible for the administration of last November's elections. According to Barreto, in last year's elections Rivas acted as "the bridge" between Ortega and Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) caudillo Arnoldo Aleman (implicitly in facilitating the massive fraud). ¶5. (C) The CSE's actions in the past weeks support Barreto's statements that the regional elections will not be very different from last November's municipal contests. Employing the same tactics used in 2008 to limit the participation of opposition parties (ref G and H),the CSE has notified the Independent Liberal Party (PLI) of several "inconsistencies" in its internal organization. While Barreto told us it was unlikely the PLI would lose its legal registration, he did state the possibility existed that the party would "destroy itself." Likewise, as the CSE attempted to suppress voter turnout in 2008 (ref C, D, E, F),it now has closed local offices in the RAAS and requires citizens to travel to the regional capital of Bluefields to obtain voter identification cards. The RAAS's poor infrastructure (river travel is required to reach the capital from some parts of the region) combined with the high cost of travel for the local citizenry will make obtaining a voter card extremely difficult (if not impossible) for some in the local population. Finally, as in 2008 (ref C and D),FSLN officials and the CSE have stated that the country's two most respected elections observation groups (Ethics and Transparency, EyT, and the Institute for Development and Democracy, IPADE) will not be accredited to observe the regional elections. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ortega government appears unfazed by a growing chorus among Nicaraguan society to address the 2008 election fraud and provide some sort of meaningful election reform (ref A). Instead, it is pressing ahead with the Atlantic regional elections at an accelerated pace and without any changes that would improve the transparency or fairness of the electoral process. Some civil society groups, including those involved in the electoral reform movement, have privately questioned whether it is worth it to compete in these elections, given the likelihood of fraud and manipulation. A repeat of fraud in the regional elections would send the worst possible signal ahead of the 2011 national elections and would further erode public confidence in Nicaragua's electoral process. CALLAHAN