NICARAGUA: SHOOTING ATTEMPT AGAINST ATTORNEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000389 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN - CWEBSTER, AKRAAIMOORE STATE FOR EEB/IFD/OIA - HGOETHERT L/CID - JKOVAR, PPEARSALL STATE ALSO FOR INL/LP E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR ECON EFIN EIND NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: SHOOTING ATTEMPT AGAINST ATTORNEY GENERAL ESTRADA REF: 08 MANAGUA 1414 Classified By: Ambassador Robert Callahan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On the morning of April 6, an unknown assailant fired four gunshots at Attorney General Hernan Estrada near his residence in Managua. Two of the bullets grazed Estrada, but he only suffered minor injuries. Estrada held a press conference in the afternoon where he blamed religious leaders and the media for promoting violence in Nicaragua. The incident has created a fervor of speculation regarding possible reasons behind the attack. While the shooting is deplorable, Estrada and the FSLN will likely use it to their advantage to go after critics of the government. End Summary. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST ESTRADA -------------- ¶2. (U) On the morning of April 6, an unknown assailant fired four gunshots at Attorney General Hernan Estrada near his residence in Managua. The Nicaraguan National Police told us that Estrada was exercising (walking) when two unknown persons approached him on a motorcycle. The assailant got off the motorcycle, yelled insults at Estrada, and shot at him four times at close range with a handgun. Two of the grazed hit Estrada; one struck his neck and the other his cheek. The assailant and the driver took off when they saw Estrada begin to bleed. His neighbors took him to the Military Hospital in Managua, but Estrada suffered only minor injuries. ESTRADA BLAMES RELIGIOUS LEADERS AND MEDIA FOR THE ATTACK -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) On the afternoon of April 7, Estrada held a press conference to discuss the incident. Police Chief Aminta Granera attended and sat next to Estrada. In reference to media reports citing Monsignor Abelardo Mata's claim that armed groups are organizing in northern Nicaragua in wake of the fraudulent November 2008 municipal elections, Estrada blamed religious leaders and the media for promoting violence in Nicaragua. He demanded that religious leaders stop their irresponsible actions, which he blamed for the violence against him, stating that, "We Sandinistas know violence, and we do not want to react against these attempts, as some in the media have been promoting." Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes, President of the Episcopal Conference, denied that the Catholic Church was promoting violence in Nicaragua or against Estrada. He said that the Church has always called for peace, reconciliation, and political openness. He defended Mata's statements, noting that it is the job of the Church to convey the concerns of the people to leaders in order to help find solutions to problems. POLICE AND NICARAGUAN ARMY EMPHASIZE CAUTION -------------- ¶4. (U) Granera said that she would form a special team to investigate the incident and strengthen Estrada's security detail. She stated that while there is no information on armed political groups in northern Nicaragua, there are juvenile delinquents and street gangs. During a separate interview with a local newspaper prior to the shooting, General Adolfo Zepeda, spokesman of the Nicaraguan Army, added that the Army had no information about armed political groups in Nicaragua. He added, "We believe that the era of politically motivated wars and armed conflicts remain in Nicaragua's distant past." SPECULATION ABOUNDS -------------- ¶5. (C) The shooting has created a fervor of speculation concerning the reasons behind the attack against Estrada. Some U.S. property claimants contacted Econoff to opine that the incident could be related to any of several contentious land disputes involving Estrada (reftel). Dora Maria Tellez, former Minister of Health during the first Sandinista government and currently a leading member of the Movement for Sandinista Renovation (MRS),told us that the incident could have been orchestrated by the FSLN. She explained that the shooting might be a warning from the FSLN to critics and opposition parties that continue to protest against the fraudulent November 2008 municipal elections. She suggested that President Daniel Ortega would use this incident as a pretext to go after FSLN opponents. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The shooting against Estrada, while deplorable, gives him and the FSLN a pretext to go after critics of the government. We expect that Estrada and the GON will continue to use this incident to blame critics for fomenting violence and instability throughout the country, while they hope to undermine their credibility as opponents of the government's actions and policies. CALLAHAN