ORTEGA'S AGENDA FOR THE SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000388 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV NU SUBJECT: ORTEGA'S AGENDA FOR THE SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS REF: A. STATE 20677 ¶B. MANAGUA 245 Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega is likely to use his participation in the Summit of the Americas to further his image as a world leader in opposition to the United States, press for an end to sanctions against Cuba, and seek increased financial aid without governance or democracy conditions. Ortega remains skeptical of the OAS in general and has recently taken positions orchestrated to further alienate the international community, including dismissing the March 31 meeting of Central American leaders with VPOTUS and breaking off free trade negotiations with the EU. Visits to Cuba and Venezuela prior to the Summit may sharpen Ortega's public confrontational attitude, though he is likely to be reserved and cordial in private and smaller meetings. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ortega is likely to use his participation in the Summit as an opportunity to project further his image as a world leader among those aligned against the United States. Ortega will arrive in Port of Spain following a visit to Cuba and participation in the April 14-15 ALBA Summit in Caracas, both of which are likely to sharpen his confrontational attitude. Ortega is not fully committed to the OAS or the Summit process and continues to view the OAS with suspicion, accusing it of interference in domestic political affairs and of overlooking supposed electoral fraud committed by "neo-liberals" in 1996 and 2001 while continuing to criticize, unfairly in his mind, his conduct of the fraudulent November 2008 municipal elections. Ortega previously stated (ref b) that his top agenda items for the Summit include: restoration of Cuba to the OAS and an end to all sanctions against the island; the development of a new organization of Latin American states that excludes the U.S. and Canada to resist the political influence of "the Empire;" and a commitment from member states to provide assistance on a nonpolitical basis and without conditions. ¶3. (C) On March 21, Ortega told Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Patrick Manning that he will also use the Summit to "demand" the U.S. increase funding for Central America in its fight against narco-traffickers. He complained that in 2008, the GoN seized "370 million dollars worth of drugs and in exchange the U.S. gives us scarcely 1.2 million dollars." (Note: Ortega has long complained that U.S. anti-drug assistance is insufficient and has advocated a 1 billion dollar plan of U.S.-backed loan guarantees to be paid for with seized assets. End note.) Additionally, he told Manning that he would call on the U.S. to provide more assistance to the region to confront the global economic crisis, "which was caused by the U.S." Orlando Gomez, advisor to Ortega and Director General for the Americas at the Foreign Ministry (MINREX),has publicly said that the GoN would also seek to raise renewable energy, social development and the environment but GoN officials have not elaborated their position on these issues. MINREX has declined our requests for a meeting to discuss their formal agenda for the Summit. ¶4. (C) Ortega's Summit participation follows a series of events in which GoN has taken positions apparently orchestrated to further alienate the international community while strengthening his image as a populist regional and world leader. At the March 25 SICA Summit in Managua, Ortega had sought agreement to lower the level of participation in the March 30 meeting with VPOTUS and agreement on a statement of principles eliminating democracy and governance conditions on international assistance. Ortega was unsuccessful in both objectives and sent Vice Foreign Minister Manuel Coronel Kautz, an opponent of the Merida Initiative, to the meeting. Ortega later complained that VPOTUS "came with empty hands" and orchestrated the meeting with Costa Rica in order "to divide rather than unite" the region. Defending his decision to send Coronel Kautz, Ortega told a Sandinista crowd, "what was the result of the meeting? It produced nothing." Most recently, Nicaragua broke off negotiations with the EU on a free trade agreement after EU representatives refused to agree to create a 60 billion Euro fund for Central America and declined to provide assistance without conditionality (septel). ¶5. (C) Based on his past performances at UNGA, regional summits, and senior-level meetings with USG officials, Ortega is likely to reserve his most heated rhetoric for public and plenary sessions, when his public posturing can be picked up by the media. In private meetings, he tends to be more reserved and cordial but will seek to dominate the discussion with a recounting of the hardships suffered by Nicaragua in the 1980s and 1990s if interlocutors raise controversial issues such as democracy, governance and respect for human rights. CALLAHAN