ORTEGA LAUNCHES CHARM OFFENSIVE TO WOO BACK AID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000241 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV NU SUBJECT: ORTEGA LAUNCHES CHARM OFFENSIVE TO WOO BACK AID Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Faced with a worsening economic situation, steep cuts in foreign assistance, and an ongoing domestic political crisis resulting from fraudulent municipal elections in November 2008, President Ortega has a launched a belated and superficial charm offensive with foreign donors to woo back aid and attract new cooperation and investment. In its outreach to donors, especially from the EU, the GoN has emphasized the negative impact cuts would have on the rural poor and sought to minimize concerns over anti-democratic trends and credible accounts of elections fraud. Additionally, Ortega has called for a "national dialogue" to restore donor confidence, while avoiding committing to concrete minimum conditions or participation by opposition groups in any such dialogue. End Summary. CHANGING THE RHETORIC AND OPENING DOORS -------------- ¶2. (C) In the immediate aftermath of the November 2008 municipal elections and cuts or freezes in aid announced by donors in response to credible reports of massive electoral fraud, the Ortega administration appeared defiant and welcomed the departure of the "imperialists." In late November, Ortega told his fellow participants in the ALBA Summit in Caracas, Venezuela that the departure of the Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) program would make Nicaragua "more free." Vice Foreign Minister Manuel Coronel Kautz later said that the freezing of MCC and other international aid was an "act of desperation" and suggested that Nicaragua would be better off without such aid "because this type of cooperation does not develop the country." ¶3. (C) Three months later, facing a worsening economic situation compounded by a significant budget shortfall, President Ortega and senior GON officials have launched an effort to woo back foreign aid and enhance relations with foreign donors. Over the last month, senior GON officials, including the Finance Minister, Education Minister, Foreign Minister and President Ortega himself have made personal and direct efforts to enhance or highlight cooperation with the U.S. as well as with other key foreign donors. In public, Ortega and other senior FSLN/GoN leaders have scaled back, though not eliminated their standard anti-U.S. and European rhetoric. ¶4. (C) Moreover, Ortega and the FSLN leadership have expanded their personal outreach to the Embassy and the Europeans. On January 29, Ambassador hosted Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, for their first ever dinner at the U.S. Ambassador's residence. Over the course of the three hour event, Ortega and Murillo were engaging and personable, but cautiously avoided discussion of substantive issues. In a February 10 meeting with the Ambassador, Foreign Minister Santos committed to quickly resolve several long-standing bilateral disputes involving exemption from taxes for the Embassy and personnel. After months of being told that the Finance Ministry opposed granting the Embassy exemption from taxes on gasoline purchases, Finance Minister Guevera told the Ambassador that he was "under orders" to resolve the problem and committed to exempting the Embassy from future taxes as well as removing the demand that back taxes be paid on prior fuel purchases. Other FSLN National Assembly Deputies and regional party officials have also opened their doors to Emboffs after declining or canceling requests for meetings in previous months. Other diplomatic missions have reported to us a similar sudden change in GoN behavior. One Ambassador told us that "cooperation has never been better" and that he could not explain the change in attitude and cooperativeness suddenly coming from the GoN. NATIONAL DIALOGUE - BUT ON FSLN TERMS -------------- ¶5. (C) Beyond changing the rhetoric and opening their doors to Western diplomats, the FSLN has re-circulated an idea proposed last year to convene a "national dialogue" to move Nicaragua beyond its current crises. On February 27, National Assembly President and Ortega-confidant Rene Nunez publicly announced the proposal for a "national dialogue in which would participate all the social, political and economic sectors of the country." The goal of the dialogue, according to Nunez, would be to design programs that would counteract the "negative effects of the decadence of the capitalist and neo-liberal system." Only a national MANAGUA 00000241 002 OF 002 dialogue, he asserted, would be able to address the problems facing the country and keep the nation on course to address the real problems of poverty and other social needs of Nicaraguans. On March 3, Ortega met with Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo (who chairs the pro-Ortega National Reconciliation Commission) and proposed that Obando chair the national dialogue. (Note: Obando, who was once the leading critic of Ortega, has allied himself with Ortega, publicly defending his handling of the November municipal elections and rejecting criticism of Ortega's slide towards authoritarianism. Obando's popularity has fallen as a result and his role in any dialogue would be widely rejected by opposition political parties and NGOs. End Note.) ¶6. (C) In a sign that the call for a dialogue is likely part of the "Pacto" power-sharing agreement between Ortega and former President Arnoldo Aleman, Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) leader Wilfredo Navarro issued a public challenge to Ortega to convene the dialogue and committing the PLC's participation, but only if it included a discussion of the formation of a new Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) and broader constitutional and political reforms, including permitting presidential re-election. Civil society leaders with whom we have spoken have rejected the call for a dialogue on the FSLN's and PLC's terms, fearing that they would be excluded from the table and any outcome of the dialogue, which is more than likely pre-determined. Violeta Granera, Executive Director of the civil society group Movimiento por Nicaragua, believed the call for a dialogue was a "trap" that would be used to endorse constitutional changes, cosmetic reforms of the electoral system, and lead to a further concentration of Ortega's power at the expense of civil society. Granera reported that a group of NGOs working to promote electoral reform would shortly issue a new platform of recommended changes to electoral law (that do not involve constitutional reform) that she hoped could serve as the basis for a real dialogue and a minimum standard by which to evaluate the GoN's commitment to reform. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) It is clear that Ortega is beginning to feel the bite of the global financial crisis and reduced international aid, particularly European-donated direct budget support, and is looking for a way forward to attract re-investment. At the same time, it is also clear that Ortega is confident that his administration can ride out the economic storm and woo back aid if they go through the motions of committing to improved relations and reform. He appears willing to give lip-service to reform, but only to the extent that it serves his long-term agenda of securing his hold on power through constitutional reform and presidential re-election. We have seen no indication that Ortega or others in the FSLN have reached out to key segments of Nicaraguan society, including pro-democracy NGOs, the business community, or the Catholic Church, or that such organizations would be prepared to engage in a dialogue on the terms proposed by Ortega. CALLAHAN