Ortega's Judicial Coup: The ALN Blocks Opposition Unity

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001065 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/03 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NU SUBJECT: Ortega's Judicial Coup: The ALN Blocks Opposition Unity REF: A) MANAGUA 1045; B) MANAGUA 1035; C) MANAGUA 96 CLASSIFIED BY: RobertJ.Callahan, Ambassador, State, Embassy Managua; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The political opposition's latest effort at unity, initiated October 21 in response to the Supreme Court's (CSJ) ruling to allow Ortega's re-election, appears to have come to a halt on October 28 in the National Assembly. The "united" opposition previously had committed to work together to move legislation in the Assembly to annul the CSJ's ruling. However, when it came time to place the legislation on the agenda, the opposition was divided and the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) was again able to move forward its own agenda. This latest incident underscores the main obstacle toward a true united opposition - i.e., some parties (and its leaders) continue to care more about personal interests and benefits rather than in countering Ortega's anti-democratic practices. End Summary. -------------- An Ephemeral United Opposition -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 21 the opposition political parties from across the ideological spectrum gathered and agreed to work together to combat "the consolidation of Ortega's dictatorship" (ref A). A component of this agreement was to cooperate in the National Assembly, where the opposition parties, along with the independents who joined them, had a two-vote majority. The opposition's legislative strategy was to prevent quorum on October 27 and force the Assembly's Executive Committee (EC) to establish a new legislative agenda, which would include legislation to repeal the CSJ's ruling. This strategy was agreed to by the heads of each opposition bloc in the legislature, as well as the four opposition members of the Assembly's EC (two from the Liberal Constitutional Party, PLC, and two from the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance, ALN). ¶3. (C) On October 27 the opposition parties were successful in preventing quorum and forcing the EC to re-convene. However, this was as far as the "united" opposition was able to proceed. When the EC convened on October 28, Deputy Alejandro Ruiz (ALN) abstained from voting on the legislation repealing the CSJ ruling. This allowed National Assembly President Rene Nunez (FSLN) to vote twice, giving the FSLN control of the agenda and rejecting the legislation to repeal the CSJ re-election ruling. Of approximately seven items the opposition wanted on the agenda, they succeeded in getting only half. This included legislation to annul the 2008 municipal elections, an item certain parties of the opposition had pushed since last year's fraudulent elections. With the legislation to annul the elections on the agenda, ALN and PLC deputies have now stated that they will form quorum the week of November 2. Deputies from the other opposition parties have not stated whether or not they will make quorum, but noted that if the ALN and PLC cooperate with the FSLN there will be effectively nothing to stop the governing party's agenda - and no official means to try and repeal the CSJ ruling. -------------- ALN - Facilitator for Corruption -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite promising to his colleagues in the opposition his support for legislation to repeal the CSJ sentence, Ruiz defended his abstention stating he needed to carefully review the legislation. However, others from the opposition view Ruiz' actions as characteristic of the ALN's duplicitous role in Nicaraguan politics. The ALN has five deputies in the Assembly, who are usually the decisive votes in the legislature. For the most part, all five (or the necessary number) vote with the FSLN on key legislation. Various opposition deputies of the Assembly (as well as administrative staff in the legislature) have told us that the FSLN pays the ALN deputies for its votes as a bloc or individually, as needed. Additionally, it is widely believed that the ALN deputies are often the vehicle by which Ortega and PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman operate their power-sharing agreement (locally known as the "pacto"). The ALN votes allow Aleman and his PLC to deliver the needed legislation to the FSLN, while allowing the PLC to publicly present itself as an opposition party. Since the CSJ ruling, it was widely believed that Aleman was either aware that the decision would be taken or actually involved in the process, and he would therefore not truly attempt to repeal the ruling. ¶5. (C) This latest vote in the EC regarding the CSJ repeal legislation is one of many instances throughout the year that raise concern as to the true motives behind the ALN and PLC votes in the Assembly and strengthen the popular belief that the ALN's role is that of facilitator of the Ortega-Aleman Pacto. It is widely believed that the January 16 vote for the composition of the EC (ref C) was the start of this latest iteration of the pacto. At that time, the PLC voted for the new EC to include the two ALN members, arguing that this composition would give "democratic" forces a majority on the committee. Since that time, however, the FSLN with only two members has dominated the EC and succeeded in promoting its own agenda, to the detriment of the opposition's agenda. As reported in ref C, Aleman gave the FSLN control of the legislature in exchange for his freedom. A more recent example also points to the ALN as the bridge between the two caudillos. On October 13 the Assembly approved the government's budget reform bill. In public the PLC stated its opposition to the legislation, but according to several deputies (including one from the ALN),the PLC voted with the FSLN to push the legislation quickly through committee and amended it to include funds for traditionally strong PLC areas of the country. In the end, the PLC did not vote for the legislation, but the ALN votes allowed the bill to pass - with the extra funding for the PLC territories. For reasons like these, politicians in the Vamos con Eduardo (VcE) and MRS parties (and the public in general) are weary of the ALN's and PLC's posturing as true opposition parties. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) In a recent poll, over 63% of the population believed the opposition needed to unite in order to counter Ortega's authoritarian practices and preserve Nicaragua's democracy. Unfortunately, the poll also showed that most Nicaraguans (over 45%) believed personal/partisan interests were too great and would prohibit a true united front; this even after the CSJ ruling on Ortega's re-election. Sadly, Nicaraguans know too well their political leaders, who have once again demonstrated that their personal interests are above anything else. CALLAHAN