NICARAGUANS RESPOND TO COURT RULING ON RE-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001041 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN, DRL STATE PASS USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUANS RESPOND TO COURT RULING ON RE-ELECTION REF: MANAGUA 1035 Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, reasons 1.4(b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: After the Supreme Court's (CSJ) ruling allowing Presdient Daniel Ortega's re-election, civil society across the board has stated clearly its opposition to the decision. They have labeled the decision as illegal and a major step backward for Nicaragua's democracy. While NGOs continue to put out statements and communiques denouncing the ruling, youth have taken to the street in small acts of protest. Meanwhile, Ortega and his FSLN stalwarts publicly defend the decision and "the people's right to chose their leaders." The FSLN has also moved preemptively in occupying public spaces to intimidate and prevent any large public opposition to Ortega and the court's ruling. End Summary. -------------- NGOs Call for Public to Resist, Youth Act -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In the days following the October 19 CSJ ruling (reftel),NGOs and other non-political actors have denounced the court's decision in allowing Ortega's re-election. The day following the ruling Movimiento por Nicaragua, the Autonomous Women's Movement, and other NGOs issued a joint statement describing the ruling as an illegitimate mechanism to allow Ortega's re-election and rejecting "the birth of a dictatorship in Nicaragua." They also called on Nicaraguans to peacefully resist the dictatorship and as of now not to recognize any national election that includes Ortega as a candidate. Another NGO, Hagamos Democracia, characterized the ruling as "aberrant and opportunistic, which violates the Constitution." It then warns that the CSJ's decision marks "regression in the democratic process that could lead to violence." Similar statements were repeated from a variety of NGOs and more are expected. ¶3. (SBU) Other non-political actors have expressed themselves in similar terms. Bishop Juan Abelardo Mata, Vice President of Nicaragua's Conference of Bishops, stated that while he was not an attorney, "the sad truth was that those who govern use the Constitution as toilet paper." The two principal private sector entities also denounced the court's decision. In its statement, the American Chamber of Commerce in Nicaragua (AmCham) denounced the court for acting "against all judicial logic" and rejected the "illegal and illegitimate" ruling of the magistrates who "violated (Nicaragua's) constitutional order." It said actions like these do nothing but scare off foreign investment and inhibit the possibilities of development. The Higher Council of the Private Sector (COSEP) rejected that the court, "through a ruling, reformed the constitution , which is solely the jurisdiction of the National Assembly or a constituent assembly ... this decision, is therefore, a violation of the constitution and the rule of law." ¶4. (C) While organized groups of civil society publicly denounced the CSJ's ruling and called for Nicaraguans to unite and resist Ortega's dictatorial tendencies, several youth groups have begun to act out against the governing FSLN and the state institutions that the party controls. One group carried a toilet in front of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) and simulated a CSE magistrate defecating on Nicaragua; the group held posters that read "Magistrates: treason has a high price." Another group awaited the arrival of CSJ magistrate Francisco Rosales in front of a television station; upon Rosales' arrival the university group hurled eggs at the magistrate. Yet another group sprayed graffiti in Managua calling for Nicaraguans to stand-up to Ortega and holding posters that read, "after Mel goes Ortega" (in reference to the situation in Honduras). -------------- FSLN Defends Decision - "Ortega in 2011" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) While civil society groups denounce the court's decision as illegal and youth groups begin to take small steps to demonstrate their frustration, Ortega and his MANAGUA 00001041 002 OF 002 governing FSLN are aggressively defending the court's decision and have preemptively occupied key public spaces to forestall opposition demonstrations. In an October 20 public speech, Ortega belittled the opposition to the court's decision and stated that the ruling "cannot be appealed ... it is written in stone." Other FSLN leadership have been making the rounds carrying the same message. CSJ Vice President Rafael Solis (a close confident of Ortega and one of six judges who voted for the re-election),told media "this issue is closed. They (the opposition) have to accept that Daniel Ortega will be a candidate in 2011." In another statement, Solis apparently recognized that his party does not represent (nor govern) for all Nicaraguans by stating "38% of the population is happy and the rest of the people are saying terrible things of us" (in allusion to the 38% of the population who voted for Ortega in the 2006 presidential election). ¶6. (SBU) Another trusted Ortega ally also has backed publicly the court's decision and called people to the streets. As he has in the past, National Assembly Deputy Gustavo Porras (FSLN) called the governing party's supporters to occupy Managua's rotundas to "support the court's decision" because the streets "belong to us." As a result, on October 20 FSLN supporters moved preemptively to occupy public space and prevent the opposition from mounting in public protests or marches. (Note: In the past, the FSLN has reacted violently to public demonstrations in opposition to the government.) Other government officials also have stated that they will take to the streets. Minister of Education Miguel de Castilla told media that he and public school teachers would go to the streets to publicly support the court's ruling and Ortega's re-election. ¶7. (C) Finally, it appears that Ortega also coordinated some international support for the court's ruling to further "legitimize" the decision. Immediately following the court's ruling on October 19, the Venezuelan-led Bolivarian Alliance for the People of our America (ALBA) issued a communique acknowledging the CSJ action, ratifying ALBA's support for the democratic institutions of Nicaragua, and applauding the Nicaraguan people for the continual consolidation of its democratic system. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) As expected, civil society as a whole has rejected the court's ruling on Ortega's re-election, calling the decision illegal, a blow to Nicaragua's constitutional order, and a step backward for Nicaraguan democracy. While NGOs and other organized groups take time to think through what actions they will take, small groups of youth have begun to demonstrate their frustration with the FSLN and the state institutions they control. How these civil society groups will combine with the political opposition to the court's ruling and Ortega remains to be seen. (Note: Political parties' opposition to the court's ruling will be reported septel.) However, the fact that Ortega and his FSLN immediately defended the decision and have taken to the streets increases the risk that events in Nicaragua could turn violent. CALLAHAN