SCENESETTER FOR CODEL GREGG, APRIL 10-13, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000335 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EUR/WE AND LMO PAUL RADEMACHER, H PLEASE PASS TO PAUL GROVES, OFFICE OF SENATOR JUDD GREGG E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL GREGG, APRIL 10-13, 2009 ¶1. (SBU) Embassy Madrid warmly welcomes your visit to Spain. U.S.-Spanish relations are strong and based on shared global interests, including the fight against terrorism, the bilateral military relationship, our association in NATO, and rapidly expanding economic ties. The Spaniards you meet will be eager to share their assessment of bilateral relations and the difficult economic situation. Most of all, they will seek your prognosis for Spanish-U.S. and U.S.-EU cooperation to ensure democracy and prosperity. Our elections were closely followed here, and a strong atmosphere of goodwill and optimism has emerged for increasingly closer bilateral relations and cooperation. Spanish President Zapatero met March 28 with VP Biden in Chile, and it has been announced he will meet April 5 with President Obama in Prague. BILATERAL RELATIONS ¶2. (SBU) Spain is an important friend and ally of the U.S., and we value its cooperation. The fights against terrorism, narcotics, and human trafficking are cornerstones of our bilateral relationship. Spanish troops are carrying out important missions in countries such as Afghanistan and Lebanon. Spain has long fought a domestic terrorist threat from the Basque terrorist group ETA and suffered tragically from Islamic extremist terrorism in the 2004 Madrid train bombings. We need to be innovative in finding new and improved avenues for bilateral and multilateral cooperation against the threats we both face. Since winning a second term in March 2008, President Zapatero has publicly and privately stressed his desire to further improve bilateral relations. The relationship will be of increasing importance when Spain takes over the EU presidency in January 2010. ¶3. (SBU) Despite differences over Iraq in 2004 and more recently over support for an independent Kosovo, Spain values its relations with the U.S. and is a strong bilateral defense partner. Even after withdrawing its military forces, Spain remained a donor to Iraq reconstruction and maintained its diplomatic presence there. Spain has nearly 800 troops in Afghanistan and operates a PRT. Spain also allows us the use of two military bases that are critical transit points between the U.S. and Iraq and Afghanistan. Counter-terrorism and law-enforcement cooperation is good. Commercial and cultural relations (e.g. tourism) are also strong. Finally, Spain is a leader in renewable energy technologies and has important investments in the U.S. in this field (e.g. wind and solar). There are important opportunities for cooperation on climate change and energy security. POLITICAL BACKGROUND ¶4. (SBU) President Zapatero's center-left Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) is seven seats shy of a majority in the 350 seat Congress. Until the March 1, 2009, Basque elections, Zapatero could rely on gaining enough votes for a majority from the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Now, with PSOE winning a majority in the Basque regional parliament, Zapatero must decide if he will call upon the support of the Partido Popular (PP) in order to elect his candidate (Paxti Lopez) as lehendekari or governor-equivalent. If he does, however, he will likely lose the support of the PNV in the national parliament - just as there are increasing calls on the GOS to fix the worsening economic crisis. This could leave the PSOE and Zapatero increasingly isolated in Congress. The opposition Popular Party (PP) gained seats in the March 2008 general elections and retained losing presidential candidate Mariano Rajoy as its leader. The PP has suffered internal divisions and more recently has been dogged by numerous corruption accusations followed obsessively by the Spanish media. ¶5. (SBU) Following the 2008 election, Zapatero kept most of his key cabinet members in their posts. Recently, however, there have been consistent rumors of a cabinet shakeup allegedly to occur within the next few months. Miguel Angel Moratinos remained Minister of Foreign Affairs. The most prominent change was that Carme Chacon became Spain's first-ever female Minister of Defense; she is described in the press as a possible eventual successor to Zapatero. The PSOE and PP will face off again in the June European Parliament elections. ECONOMIC CONTEXT ¶6. (SBU) Since Zapatero was re-elected a year ago, the GOS has faced a deepening economic slump. After 15 years of rapid economic growth, the end in 2007 of a long construction boom and the global financial crisis have boosted unemployment over 14% -- the highest rate in the EU -- and MADRID 00000335 002 OF 003 thrust the country into a recession that started last summer. As of February 2009, just under 3.5 million people were unemployed, the highest number in many years. The GOS projects that the unemployment rate will approach 16% by the end of 2009, while independent analysts suggest that the rate will be much higher. Growth is expected to be negative for all of 2009 and possibly into 2010. ¶7. (SBU) Over a year of worse-than-expected economic news has led to widespread criticism of Zapatero and his economic policymakers for their upbeat predictions during the 2008 campaign and for having downplayed the economic difficulties long after many others were saying Spain was in a crisis. Spanish banks had little exposure to U.S. mortgages and were not caught up in the initial wave of European bank turmoil last year. However, many are overly exposed to troubled domestic construction and real estate companies. The Bank of Spain took over a savings bank on March 29, 2009, and other savings banks may need to merge. The GOS claims the relative financial stability is a result of the central bank,s conservative regulation, including requiring higher loss provisions in good times and discouraging off-balance sheet holdings. ¶8. (SBU) Spain has become a leading investor in the U.S. in recent years, with significant investment in banking, wind and solar power, ethanol, road construction, foods, and insurance. President Zapatero made it a matter of national pride to participate in the November 2008 G-20 financial summit even though Spain is not a G-20 member. He and other Spaniards argue that the size of its economy, the lessons of its regulations, and the importance of its banking sector in Latin America and elsewhere justify Spanish participation. He succeeded in participating as a result of the intervention of French President Sarkozy, and UK Prime Minister Brown has invited him to the April 2 London Summit. He has spoken often of the importance of coordinated European and U.S. action in facing the crisis. However, Spanish officials say they have done as much as they dare in the way of fiscal stimulus (the budget surplus of 2% of GDP in 2007 will be a deficit of around 6% this year),and Zapatero,s main focus for London appears to be financial regulatory measures. MILITARY AND SECURITY COOPERATION ¶9. (SBU) Spanish military cooperation is important to the U.S. The southern Spanish bases of Rota and Moron are strategic hubs, midway between the U.S. and theaters of operation in Afghanistan and Iraq. Spain has troops in Lebanon (roughly 1,100),Afghanistan (780),Bosnia (260),and a smattering of others in various UN & EU observer missions. Although the ISAF mission is not popular with the Spanish public, Spain could do more, particularly in support of the elections, in providing financial support for the expansion of the Afghan National Army, and in the area of police training. GOS officials have stressed that the solution in Afghanistan cannot be purely military and that a new, regional strategy is needed, and we hope they will welcome the new U.S. approach. Spain is not only a military presence in Afghanistan. The Spanish PRT in Qala i Naw has undertaken a variety of development projects, involving potable water, electricity, sanitation, security, culture and education. According to the Spanish Development Agency (AECID),Spanish projects have created about 7,500 jobs for Afghans. ¶10. (SBU) Spain is one of only five EU countries that have not recognized Kosovo's independence. President Zapatero continues to deny recognition of an independent Kosovo state "out of political conviction" and in accordance with his interpretation of international law. Spanish officials often point to the example they fear Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence may set for Spanish separatist elements. Most recently, on March 19 the government announced the withdrawal of the 600 Spanish troops in KFOR by the end of this summer, and the government suffered severe public and private criticism for the failure to coordinate, even from Spanish commentators who favored the withdrawal. ¶11. (SBU) Elsewhere on the diplomatic front, Spain in recent years has more often been a follower than a leader, looking to stay within EU consensus on issues such as Iran and missile defense. Zapatero hopes the Spanish EU Presidency, beginning in January 2010, will be a centerpiece of his second-term foreign policy efforts. He has also promised to raise Spain's foreign assistance budget to 0.7 percent of GDP by 2012 and has stressed Spain's commitment to the international food security effort. Zapatero was also a founder of the Alliance of Civilizations movement (now under UN stewardship) and had hoped President Obama would attend MADRID 00000335 003 OF 003 the second forum of that organization during his April visit to Turkey. Spain is supportive of U.S. efforts towards Middle East peace. Driven by the twin threats of terrorism and illegal immigration, Spain is also increasing its engagement with the countries of North and Western Africa. The seizure by Somali pirates of a Spanish fishing ship in April led to a ransom payment and sparked GOS interest in addressing piracy. Spain is a good customer for U.S. defense items and one of the largest Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers in Europe, with more than $2.58 billion in purchases from 1997 to 2007. The Spanish military often favors U.S. equipment, and in recent years, Spain has made politically difficult decisions to buy U.S.-made combat systems for its S-80 submarines and F-100 frigates (Spain uses the AEGIS system). COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION ¶12. (SBU) Spain is an al-Qaeda target and a critical player in U.S.-EU counterterrorism efforts due to its proximity to the Maghreb and a population that includes more than one million Muslims, mostly immigrants. Senior Al-Qaeda leaders often call for attacks to recapture the medieval "Al Andalus," and the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa are a fixation for Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb and other extremists. The March 11, 2004, train bombings killed 191 persons and injured nearly 2,000 more, making it the second-deadliest terror attack in European history. The Spanish government considers the threat from Islamic terrorism to be one of its top national security priorities and has identified numerous Islamic extremist groups operating within its borders. The Spanish are actively pursuing Islamic extremism terrorism-related investigations and have scores of suspects in jail. Public opinion polling shows nearly three-quarters of Spaniards are worried about the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, more than in the U.S. or Europe as a whole. ¶13. (SBU) Bilateral CT cooperation is strong. Spain pursues an aggressive agenda in law enforcement, judicial, and information-sharing efforts, at least with us. One example is the HSPD-6 agreement we signed in 2007 to facilitate the sharing of information between our national counterterrorism authorities. Spain also is a founding member of the Proliferation Security Initiative. Spain has hosted a number of Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GI) events in 2008 and has been at the forefront of efforts to expand membership. Spanish officials recently have given indications that Madrid wants to deepen bilateral cooperation -- especially emergency preparedness exercises -- to combat nuclear terrorism. Our Consulate General in Barcelona is increasing its staff size as part of an inter-agency initiative to host a jointly-coordinated counterterrorism, anti-crime, and intelligence center to combat the target-rich environment of terrorist and criminal activities in the region, which has been the site of more than a dozen raids on suspected radical Islamists since 9/11, including the dismantlement in January 2008 of a cell with ties to Al-Qaeda that reportedly intended to attack Barcelona's subway system. PERSONAL SECURITY ¶14. (U) In general, Spain is safe. However, Madrid and other large cities attract a large number of criminals and pickpockets and frequent incidents of crime of opportunity against the unwary do occur. It is best to carry only essential items, including a photocopy of your passport's photo page. Visitors can protect themselves against crime by being street-smart, alert and aware of their surroundings. Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide Caution issued by the Department of State. As the Department of State continues to develop information on any potential security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible threat information through its Consular Information Program documents, available on the Internet at http://travel/state.gov. Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain is available on the U.S. Department of State's website (www.embusa.es). CHACON