SPAIN: MFA SHARES VIEWS ON RUN-UP TO NPT REVCON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MADRID 001196 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR ISN DAS KANG DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR ISN/MNSA SCOTT DAVIS, WILLIAM MENOLD DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR ISA/RA RICHARD NEPHEW DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/WE ALEX MCKNIGHT, STACIE ZERDECKI E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2019 TAGS: AORC CDG ENRG KNNP MNUC PARM PGOV PREL IAEA NPT, SP SUBJECT: SPAIN: MFA SHARES VIEWS ON RUN-UP TO NPT REVCON REF: A. SECSTATE 126209 ¶B. MADRID 1087 ¶C. SECSTATE 125037 MADRID 00001196 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Arnold A. Chacon for reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a candid bilateral meeting on preparations for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon),Spanish MFA non-proliferation officials appeared well disposed to cooperate with the USG regarding the RevCon and explicitly asked how Spain, as rotating EU President during the first half of 2010, can be of assistance. MFA officials expressed an acute awareness that Spain will be under pressure to provide leadership and contribute to the success of the NPT RevCon. However, they also perceived that time is short before the May 3-28 RevCon and conveyed exasperation at the seemingly inflexible positions of some key NPT countries, particularly Egypt. Finally, these MFA officials subtly voiced frustration at the MFA's challenges in focusing Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos on non-proliferation issues and requested that the USG send senior non-proliferation officials to engage the Minister. USG officials expressed appreciation for Spain's efforts, acknowledged that tough decisions would have to be made regarding the NPT, and stated that the USG was working with Spain on these issues. ¶2. (C) On November 18 Carmen Bujan, the MFA's Director General (A/S-level) for Strategic Affairs and Terrorism, and two key deputies, Gonzalo de Salazar, Deputy DG for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, and Miguel Aguirre de Carcer, Special Ambassador for Disarmament, met Eliot Kang, DAS for Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy and Negotiations, Scott Davis, ISN/MNSA Deputy Director, and an Embassy Madrid notetaker. The talks took place on the eve of a RevCon-themed conference at a Madrid think tank, INCIPE, at which Kang was a featured speaker. Both at the MFA and at the conference, Kang drove home many of the Ref A talking points on the USG's approach to the NPT. A working-level MFA non-pro official commented to POLOFF that the MFA viewed the bilateral meeting and the INCIPE event as the highlights of a "crucial week" in preparing Spain's non-proliferation efforts for the EU Presidency it will assume. At the conference, Bujan spoke briefly with Embassy Madrid Charge d'Affaires Arnold A. Chacon, whose assistance she solicited in arranging a meeting between Moratinos and Ellen Tauscher, U/S for Arms Control and International Security. Meanwhile, DAS Kang informed Post that he fully supports Post's proposal for Washington-based analysts to provide a technical briefing on Iran's nuclear program to the MFA (Refs B and C). END SUMMARY. //GOS Perceives Pressure to Provide Leadership, Be Ambitious// ¶3. (C) In the bilateral meeting, Bujan noted that there are "huge expectations" for the NPT RevCon because of President Obama's personal commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament issues, but suggested, "We've got to be realistic - what can be done?" On several occasions, she worryingly remarked, "Six months is nothing," referring to the amount of time remaining before the NPT RevCon commences. She nevertheless acknowledged, "Doing nothing is not an option" and suggested that the international community will judge as a failure simply preserving the status quo rather than making progress. (COMMENT: At the INCIPE conference, Bujan's public remarks were decidedly more upbeat about Madrid's own desire to "take advantage of the momentum" that President Obama has created on nonproliferation and disarmament issues and about Spain's proactive interest in demonstrating leadership on non-pro issues during its EU Presidency. END COMMENT.) ¶4. (C) The Spanish explained that before each RevCon, the EU creates a Common Position, which is a politically and legally MADRID 00001196 002.2 OF 004 binding document which will form the basis of later positions the EU will take. The Spanish stated that the Common Position will be based on the "forward-looking" document that the EU created before the third NPT PrepCom meeting in May ¶2009. The Spanish added that the MFA would like to be "a bit ambitious" in its leadership on this issue, but informed the USG delegation that once this EU position is formed in March or April, the GOS, as EU President, must represent this consensus and will not be able to exceed it. Recalling that President Obama was personally involved in phone calls with IAEA DG ElBaradei regarding the Tehran Nuclear Reactor, Kang advised the GOS that the President likewise may become involved as negotiations for the RevCon come down to the wire. //Spain: "What Can the EU Do to Help?"// ¶5. (C) In response to Bujan's question on how the EU can help contribute to the success of the RevCon, Kang and Davis replied that while the USG is deeply committed to a successful RevCon, there are limits to how far the USG alone can take the issue. They pointed out that the USG will need to rely on friends and allies for support, in particular in engaging key countries in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and in privately and publicly promoting an optimistic view of progress. Davis also inquired about the EU's plans to host a seminar on Middle East issues regarding the NPT. The Spanish replied that the EU would like to hold the seminar - a follow-on to one held last year largely among academics - before the RevCon, although Egypt prefers that it takes place afterwards. This year, government officials, including from Israel and Iran, will be invited according to the Spanish. The conference may take place in Paris, Brussels, Cairo or Spain. Bujan remarked that this seminar could either help or hurt the prospects for the success at the RevCon, but the GOS feels obliged to try to make it work. At the INCIPE conference, Stephan Klement, who works for the Personal Representative on WMD Non-Proliferation to the High Representative of the EU, informed Davis that the EU would invite the USG, via the US Mission to the EU, to this seminar. //Defining "Success" at the RevCon// ¶6. (C) Aguirre de Carcer expressed interest in defining the success of the RevCon, to which Davis replied that while consensus may be unobtainable, if well over 180 signatories to the NPT could agree on an outcome, then that may be the next best thing, especially if accompanied by positive atmospherics. Aguirre de Carcer called this outcome "consensus minus" and said the GOS sees the "ideal scenario" as starting from well-known positions, in which the US and EU "see eye-to-eye on 90 percent of the issues" and, after three weeks of negotiations with other NPT members, the US and EU defining the level of ambition that seems attainable and working together to reach it. Meanwhile, Bujan expressed her hope that the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) that President Obama will host in Washington in April will not overshadow the NPT RevCon. (NOTE: Bujan, who is Spain's Sous-Sherpa to the NSS, attended the recent Sous-Sherpa meeting in Washington and accompanied Deputy FM Angel Lossada, Spain's Sherpa, to the December 2-3 Sherpa meeting in Tokyo. END NOTE.) //Spanish Views on Key NPT Countries// ¶7. (C) In the course of the bilateral meeting, the Spanish presented GOS views on key NPT players, including Brazil, Egypt, Iran, and China. Bujan, who said that she and her staff had held non-pro meetings with the Brazilians days earlier, opened up the meeting by saying, "We have to do something about Brazil." Salazar suggested that Brasilia is overly ambitious because it is not comfortable with its place in the current world order, to which Bujan remarked that Brazil has to "earn" a more senior position. Bujan described Brazil as an important voice in the NAM but remarked that MADRID 00001196 003.2 OF 004 Brasilia has "too many sensitivities." ¶8. (C) Bujan also expressed a sense of powerlessness at Spain's inability to raise the NPT issue among IberoAmerican countries. She vented that Spain did not intend to raise the NPT at the IberoAmerican Summit in Portugal on November 30, because Cuba would not support any such proposal and if Spain insisted on raising the issue, it would "risk offending" other countries and would be criticized for "imposing its will." At this point, Bujan stated, "Maybe I'm talking too much and Miguel (Aguirre de Carcer) will make me be quiet." Kang replied that since the IberoAmerican Summit agenda would focus on the importance of research and development, perhaps the issue of civil nuclear energy could be raised. ¶9. (C) Bujan described Egypt as both "part of the solution and part of the problem." She said that negotiating with the Egyptians is frustrating and opined that it is "always the same each year," in that Cairo invariably steers conversations to the subject of Israel's nuclear program. DAS Kang replied that Spain - as an IAEA Board member and the soon-to-be EU President - will need to make tough decisions and said, "We're counting on you" (Spain). Kang specifically suggested that FM Moratinos raise the issue with his Egyptian counterpart. Kang added that the USG was very disappointed with Cairo for its position on the NPT, especially after President Obama had visited Egypt for such a high profile speech early in his term. ¶10. (C) Bujan noted that the issue of Iran's nuclear program will be prominent during the run-up to the RevCon and predicted that "things will go badly" on that issue, which would then have an impact on "like-minded" countries at the RevCon . Meanwhile, Salazar bluntly stated, "We don't trust Iran" regarding its nuclear aspirations. Davis acknowledged that that the Middle East issue is the most difficult one for the NPT and stated that the USG will need to coordinate closely with the GOS and the EU on this issue, while Kang observed that the US Nuclear Posture Review is also likely to have a big impact in the run-up to the RevCon. ¶11. (C) Salazar asked Kang for the USG's evaluation of Beijing's relations with Pakistan and Iran, given that Chinese firms supply sensitive technologies to Iran. Salazar asked whether the USG attributed this to poor export controls, lack of enforcement or different policy goals in the Middle East. Pointing to classified briefings on this subject shared at the recent Missile Technology Control Regime Plenary in Rio, Salazar asserted that China's trade policy was helping Tehran become a "virtual nuclear power" that could wield influence by merely having all of the know-how and hardware to possess nuclear weapons without actually having them. Kang said he thought that Chinese practices were improving, but they have a long way to go. //MFA's Wrap-Up of INCIPE Conference's Key Themes// ¶12. (SBU) As a featured speaker to wrap-up the INCIPE conference, Salazar publicly stated that the key themes that he had noted included the instability caused by the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, the growing demand for civil nuclear energy programs throughout the world, and the development of a parallel market of new technologies beyond the control regimes of exporters. Salazar also highlighted the differing priorities Parties have for the NPT, whether non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament, or the peaceful uses of civil energy. Salazar cited the need to devote equal attention to all three pillars and underscored the importance of making the Additional Protocol th einternational safeguards standard. Salazar identified the need to reinforce the role of the IAEA as an international safeguards body as another key theme. He also acknowledged that countries that have not signed the NPT are outside its legal constraints, which creates doubts about the efficacy of the MADRID 00001196 004.2 OF 004 NPT. In particular, Salazar said it was clear that Israel's alleged nuclear program is a concern to many nations, especially those in the Middle East. (COMMENT: At one point during the conference after a British panelist described Iran's Qom site as a previously "clandestine enrichment facility," Ambassador Khaled Shamaa, the Deputy Assistant for Disarmament Affairs within Egypt's MFA, pointedly asked whether HMG would use the same language to describe all other undeclared nuclear facilities. END COMMENT.) ¶13. (U) DAS Kang has cleared this cable. CHACON