UNCLAS LUSAKA 000066


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE: THE LIGHT AT THE END OF
THE TUNNEL MAY BE AN ONCOMING TRAIN


1. Summary. Zambia's National Constitutional Conference (NCC)
continues to make progress toward a proposed draft constitution, and
optimistically predicts it will have an approved draft by July of
this year. Six of the NCC's 11 committees have met and forwarded
their recommendations for consideration by the plenary, and the
remaining five committees are scheduled to complete their work in
February. As committee members know that their recommendations
still have to be accepted by the 500-plus members of the plenary,
however, they have pushed many of the most contentious issues to the
larger body, leaving much of the NCC's hardest work remaining to be
done. Given these hurdles, it is unlikely that the process will
conclude by July as the GRZ has indicated. The constitution's path
to enactment, and acceptance by the general public, remain
uncertain. End summary.


2. Six of the NCC's committees have met and concluded their
deliberations: the Citizenship, Judicial, and Public Service
committees met from May 19 to June 16, 2008, and the Democratic
Governance, Local Government, and Public Finance committees met from
July 10 to August, 2008. Meetings for the five remaining committees
- General Constitutional Principles, Human Rights, Executive,
Legislative, and Land and Environment - commenced on January 12,
2009 and are scheduled to be completed in February.


3. The objectives of the committee meetings are to consider the
contents of the Mung'omba Constitutional Review Commission's (CRC)
recommendations and proposed draft constitution, and to provide
recommendations to the NCC plenary as to what should be included in
the new draft constitution. The committees will present their
recommendations to the NCC's plenary session after March for further
consideration and adoption. The plenary last met in April 2008 to
approve committee membership.


4. Key recommendations that have been made so far include a
"50-percent-plus-one" method for electing the president, recognition
of dual citizenship (which is currently prohibited), and the public
funding of political parties. There is also a recommendation to
give the president the unilateral power to declare war. Many
contentious issues remain for committee consideration, including the
appointment of Cabinet ministers from outside Parliament, expanding
the number of members of Parliament, and the inclusion of an
economic, social and cultural bill of rights in the Constitution.


5.

NCC spokesperson Mwangala Zaloumis held a press conference in
January 2009 to explain the progress of the NCC. According to
Zaloumis, the committees are due to complete their deliberations in
February, in time for a plenary session to begin in April.
Decisions by the plenary, which is comprised of some 520 members,
are to be taken by consensus. When consensus cannot be reached
(there is no timeline provided for reaching consensus), a two-thirds
majority is required. According to Zaloumis, the plenary should
approve a draft constitution by July. This draft would be published
for public comment for 60 days, after which time the plenary would
meet once again to produce a second draft based on public comments
and contributions.


6. The NCC would then submit its final version of the Constitution
to the Minister of Justice, who will either:

-- Present it to the National Assembly as a Bill of Parliament and
enact a new Constitution, if the draft bill does not contain any
provisions to amend Part III (essentially the Bill of Rights) or
Article 79 of the Constitution (dealing with amendment to the
Constitution); or

-- Take the necessary steps to convene a national referendum, as
required if the draft bill contains provisions to alter Part III or
Article 79 of the Constitution; or if the NCC itself resolves that
the entire draft should be submitted to a national referendum.


7. Civil society groups not participating in the NCC, including
prominent women's groups and church bodies, have expressed concern
that the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) will try to
ram an unacceptable draft through the plenary and parliament, which
are stacked with MMD loyalists. The groups have also expressed
concern that the GRZ will use its influence to pressure the NCC into
only making amendments to the constitution, rather than proposing a
whole new draft as many civil society groups believe is necessary.
For its part, the GRZ says that it is committed to leaving the NCC
to its business without interference and that it will implement
whatever is recommended.


8. Comment: The NCC's committee stage has gone relatively
smoothly, in part because committee members know that their
decisions are non-binding until decided in plenary.
Notwithstanding civil society's concerns, the plenary's large size
and requirement for consensus decision-making mean a significant
slow-down of the process almost inevitable. The journey so far has
been all on-ramp, and only with the plenary will the real traffic
jams begin. Once out of plenary, how the government intends to
secure enactment and acceptance of the new constitution, given the
widespread perception that the NCC is stacked in favor of MMD
perpetuation in government, remains to be seen. End comment.

Booth