ZAMBIA DOES NOT RULE OUT MILITARY INTERVENTION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 000450 SIPDIS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU, STATE FOR AF/S AND AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2014 TAGS: PREL SADC PGOV ZA SUBJECT: ZAMBIA DOES NOT RULE OUT MILITARY INTERVENTION IN MADAGASCAR REF: SECSTATE 63557 Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION MICHAEL KOPLOVSKY FOR REASONS 1. 4(B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) On June 23, emboffs met with Awa Lubundi, Zambian Foreign Ministry Africa Division, to discuss the points in the reftel demarche on Madagascar. He noted that SADC does not promote military intervention as a measure to advance political progress in Madagascar, yet SADC remains open to employing such an alternative after all consensual negotiation efforts are exhausted. He also inquired how the USG might respond to possible SADC military intervention in Madagascar. Our response reiterated that the United States advocates peaceful resolutions to this crisis. Although Lubundi conceded that sending the SADC brigade was something SADC leaders considered during their June 20 summit in Johannesburg, he described it as an "unrealistic" option. ¶2. (C) According to the Lubundi, SADC's reticence on military intervention stems from its previous failed attempt to intercede in Lesotho during 1998. He confided that SADC leaders lacked confidence that a SADC brigade would be well received by the Malagasy people and, therefore, was likely to fail. He took the point regarding the need to push for elections and refrain from reinstating Marc Ravalomanana. Lubundi's comments reflected little GRZ urgency for immediate elections. He noted that SADC would endorse an interim government led, for instance, by the Head of Madagascar's Senate until elections are underway. BOOTH