RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000756

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2024
TAGS: PGOV AO
SUBJECT: RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE

REF: LUANDA 740

Classified By: Ambassador Dan Mozena, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) At the opening of the MPLA party congress on 7
December, President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos scolded
unscrupulous and corrupt party members who have used
political power to become rich (see reftel). While some of
our contacts take a cynical view of such pronouncements,
others, like World Bank senior economist and one of Luanda's
most astute observers Ricardo Gazel (strictly protect),are
reading more nuance into Dos Santos's speech. Gazel, who has
excellent contacts at the highest levels of Angolan economic
decision-making, told the DCM on 9 December that he believes
Dos Santos is serious about curbing corruption, if only out
of self-interest. Gazel said Angola's current fiscal
situation simply cannot afford today's level of corruption.
Dos Santos, he said, realizes corruption has now permeated
all levels of government, and that this is more unsustainable
than unacceptable. While the President would work to curb
corruption generally, Gazel maintained that corruption among
the highest echelons of Angola's political elite would likely
continue.


2. (C) Both Gazel and Mamadou Beye, a senior Chevron Angola
official (strictly protect),also spoke to DCM about rumors
of a significant cabinet reshuffle, which would most likely
occur some time after the January 31, 2010 finale of the CAN
Soccer Cup. Gazel told the DCM that Minister of Finance
Eduardo Leopoldo Severim de Morais is about to be fired and
should be because "he knows nothing," as well as the Minister
of Planning, Ana Dias Lourenco, whom he described as
notoriously difficult. Beye has been told that the Minister
of Public Works Higino Carneiro and Energy Minister Emanuela
Afonso Vieira Lopes were both on their way out; Beye appeared
happy with these fates, if true, noting that both needed to
go, but especially the Energy Minister, whom he described as
"absolutely terrible" and whose husband is personally
benefiting too much from her position.


3. (C) As for the million dollar question, "Will Dos Santos
ever step down?" Gazel has heard that Dos Santos will not run
in 2012, nor will he ensure a family member follows him.
(NOTE: As an aside, Gazel noted that Dos Santos daughter,
Isabel, whose name is occasionally mentioned as a possible
successor, is one of the most savvy businesspersons he's ever
met, even joking that Harvard should come do a case study on
her. END NOTE) Instead, Gazel said Dos Santos will choose a
Vice-President who will be his heir apparent. Dos Santos,
according to Gazel, is considering three men for the job:
Speaker of National Assembly Fernando da Piedade dos Santos,
Prime Minister Paolo Kassamo, and the Minister of Economy
Manuel Nunes, Jr. Gazel's first choice would be Nunes, noting
he is extremely sharp, has a PhD in economics, and is one of
the few people in Angola with whom he can talk real economics.


4. (C) COMMENT. Embassy passes this information on for the
for-what-it's-worth category and as a glimpse into Luanda's
always hyper-active rumor mill. The question of Dos Santos'
successor is a perpetual topic of conversation and
speculation, and rumors of ministers' comings and goings are
always hot on the Luanda chat circuit. Post cannot verify
any of them. Most would welcome the departure of Planning
Minister Ana Dias Lourenco, a deep and persistent thorn in
the side of the World Bank, which must engage through her
hostile and fully dysfunctional ministry. Despite the rumors
of her political demise, however, Post notes that she has a
strong personal link to Dos Santos and was, in fact, just
re-elected to the Central Committee. Given our ongoing
engagements with both the Finance and Energy Ministers, their
departures would necessitate our rebuilding relationships
with successors who may or may not be as open to engaging
with us as the incumbents.
MOZENA