RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000756 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2024 TAGS: PGOV AO SUBJECT: RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE REF: LUANDA 740 Classified By: Ambassador Dan Mozena, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) At the opening of the MPLA party congress on 7 December, President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos scolded unscrupulous and corrupt party members who have used political power to become rich (see reftel). While some of our contacts take a cynical view of such pronouncements, others, like World Bank senior economist and one of Luanda's most astute observers Ricardo Gazel (strictly protect),are reading more nuance into Dos Santos's speech. Gazel, who has excellent contacts at the highest levels of Angolan economic decision-making, told the DCM on 9 December that he believes Dos Santos is serious about curbing corruption, if only out of self-interest. Gazel said Angola's current fiscal situation simply cannot afford today's level of corruption. Dos Santos, he said, realizes corruption has now permeated all levels of government, and that this is more unsustainable than unacceptable. While the President would work to curb corruption generally, Gazel maintained that corruption among the highest echelons of Angola's political elite would likely continue. ¶2. (C) Both Gazel and Mamadou Beye, a senior Chevron Angola official (strictly protect),also spoke to DCM about rumors of a significant cabinet reshuffle, which would most likely occur some time after the January 31, 2010 finale of the CAN Soccer Cup. Gazel told the DCM that Minister of Finance Eduardo Leopoldo Severim de Morais is about to be fired and should be because "he knows nothing," as well as the Minister of Planning, Ana Dias Lourenco, whom he described as notoriously difficult. Beye has been told that the Minister of Public Works Higino Carneiro and Energy Minister Emanuela Afonso Vieira Lopes were both on their way out; Beye appeared happy with these fates, if true, noting that both needed to go, but especially the Energy Minister, whom he described as "absolutely terrible" and whose husband is personally benefiting too much from her position. ¶3. (C) As for the million dollar question, "Will Dos Santos ever step down?" Gazel has heard that Dos Santos will not run in 2012, nor will he ensure a family member follows him. (NOTE: As an aside, Gazel noted that Dos Santos daughter, Isabel, whose name is occasionally mentioned as a possible successor, is one of the most savvy businesspersons he's ever met, even joking that Harvard should come do a case study on her. END NOTE) Instead, Gazel said Dos Santos will choose a Vice-President who will be his heir apparent. Dos Santos, according to Gazel, is considering three men for the job: Speaker of National Assembly Fernando da Piedade dos Santos, Prime Minister Paolo Kassamo, and the Minister of Economy Manuel Nunes, Jr. Gazel's first choice would be Nunes, noting he is extremely sharp, has a PhD in economics, and is one of the few people in Angola with whom he can talk real economics. ¶4. (C) COMMENT. Embassy passes this information on for the for-what-it's-worth category and as a glimpse into Luanda's always hyper-active rumor mill. The question of Dos Santos' successor is a perpetual topic of conversation and speculation, and rumors of ministers' comings and goings are always hot on the Luanda chat circuit. Post cannot verify any of them. Most would welcome the departure of Planning Minister Ana Dias Lourenco, a deep and persistent thorn in the side of the World Bank, which must engage through her hostile and fully dysfunctional ministry. Despite the rumors of her political demise, however, Post notes that she has a strong personal link to Dos Santos and was, in fact, just re-elected to the Central Committee. Given our ongoing engagements with both the Finance and Energy Ministers, their departures would necessitate our rebuilding relationships with successors who may or may not be as open to engaging with us as the incumbents. MOZENA