PAKISTAN: NEXT STEPS AFTER MILIBAND'S VISIT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 000230 NOFORN SIPDIS DEAPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/INS, AND SCA/PB E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019 TAGS: PREL EAID PTER KDEM IN PK UK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN: NEXT STEPS AFTER MILIBAND'S VISIT REF: A. LONDON 71 ¶B. SCA/FO-LORD EMAILS ¶C. 08 LONDON 3001 Classified By: Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Pakistan's engagement and public messaging about its actions in the aftermath of the Mumbai bombings formed the core of Foreign Secretary Miliband's script during his January 16-17 visit to Islamabad. Miliband, according to FCO Pakistan Team leader Laura Hickey, was re-assured from his conversations with senior GOP officials that the GOP planned to prosecute the Mumbai attackers. To move forward on planning for the Friends of Pakistan meeting and on the FATA Roadmap, Hickey suggested HMG and the USG have consultations, possibly via videoconference, to iron out details about the Trust Fund and other next steps. End Summary. Miliband Reassured -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Following his January 13-15 visit to India (septel),Foreign Secretary Miliband visited Islamabad January 16-17. From his GOP meetings, Miliband was re-assured that many in the GOP, including Minister of Interior Rehman Malik and Foreign Minister Qureshi, were committed to prosecution of Pakistanis involved in the November Mumbai bombings, FCO Pakistan Team leader Laura Hickey said January 26. Miliband encouraged the GOP to show publicly what it was doing on the investigation and explain the process. Miliband was pleased by the statement Malik issued the day after their visit about the proceedings, even if "things remained a bit murky." HMG plans to continue pushing the GOP to make the process clear and to make it public. Miliband suggested that Malik write a list of information that the GOP needs from the Indians for prosecution, as a way to have back-channel cooperation. Good messaging and presentation on the Mumbai bombings was Miliband's core message. ¶3. (C/NF) According to Hickey, the visit also confirmed for Miliband HMG's analysis of the extent and role of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) (reftel A). The organizations are extensive and popular, and as such it will be difficult for the GOP to take action against them in a short period of time, certainly longer than it will take for the GOP to prosecute the Mumbai attackers. Hickey said Miliband's sense of the situation was that it is a "race against time," as the capacity and capability for LeT to mount attacks remains. Hickey said it would be helpful for HMG and the USG to consult on our analysis of the JuD's social/charity networks and devise ways to undermine the organization's credibility. Miliband with Sharif -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif told Miliband that the Punjab authorities were cooperating completely. Hickey said Miliband questioned Sharif's sincerity and pushed hard on Sharif's mutual interest in shutting down extremist networks, especially if he continues to have national political aspirations. Such organizations would limit his authority if he were in Pakistan's top position. Miliband questioned after his meeting with Sharif if the Punjab authorities had allowed the police to give JuD leaders advance notifications of the police raids conducted in the wake of the Mumbai bombings. Hickey asserted, however, that Miliband had the sense that Sharif genuinely wanted to shut down the networks but was scared for his own safety and unsure of the political capital it would cost. Friends of Pakistan Meeting LONDON 00000230 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) Hickey said that Miliband is unsure of his attendance at the Tokyo meeting and was waiting to see who would represent the USG. She said President Zardari had asked about extending an invitation to Iran to participate. Miliband gave no firm answer to Zardai, but advised that Saudi Arabia and others may not support the idea. Hickey noted that the Saudis had approach HMG several times to inquire about Pakistan's dealings with Iran. She questioned if Zardari's flirtations with Iran were a negotiation tactic to get Saudi Arabia "to stump up" and provide major support. Hickey said HMG has no problem with Iran's attendance, as long as all other Friends of Pakistan members are on board. She indicated that the GOP planned to circulate a notional list of possible new Friends in the coming days. Trust Fund Details -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Hickey said it would be helpful for HMG and the USG to discuss the focus of the Trust Fund. The UK's Department for International Development (DFID) would like the trust fund to focus exclusively on the tribal areas so that development aid for the rest of Pakistan could flow through government institutions, thereby building government capacity for service delivery. In the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),however, such institutions do not exist and other mechanisms are needed. Hickey noted that the Saudis wanted the trust fund to be for the whole of Pakistan. She suggested a UK-U.S. video conference may be helpful in fleshing out the details. FATA Roadmap -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Miliband did not discuss the FATA Roadmap during his visit as he had planned (reftel),as HMG wants to resolve the differences in approach to the trust fund before discussing the roadmap with the GOP. HMG would like to talk to the GOP about the roadmap in short order, and Hickey suggested HMG and the USG discuss the Trust Fund as soon as possible. EU Trade -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Hickey said GOP officials complained that Pakistan had not received Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GSP Plus) status for EU trade, which does not require reciprocal market access. Hickey said Pakistan did not qualify because it is not poor enough. HMG is still considering a free trade agreement option as a deliverable for the July Pakistan-EU Summit (reftel C). U.S. Kashmir Envoy -------------- ¶9. (S/NF) Hickey said many in HMG were keenly following the media reports about the possibility that the USG would appoint an envoy for Kashmir. Hickey said the view from FCO Political Director Mark Lyall Grant's office was that it would be better for a senior USG official to privately take on the role rather than for an envoy publicly dedicated to Kashmir. She said the hope was that Ambassador Holbrooke, as part of his new appointment as Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, would take on the Kashmir issue as well because of the "sensitivity" around the issue. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom TUTTLE