HMG'S VIEWS ON INDIA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 001777

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR AF IN NP PK UK PTER
SUBJECT: HMG'S VIEWS ON INDIA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN
AND NEPAL

REF: LONDON 236

Classified By: Political Counselor Robin Quinville
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary. HMG is "cautiously optimistic" about the
progress of India's relationship, with Pakistan and the U.S.
and HMG should "compare notes" this fall to determine "how
serious the Indians actually are in relaxing their rhetoric
toward Pakistan," Neil Kernohan, Head of the India, Nepal and
Bhutan Team, South Asia Group (SAG),at the Foreign and
Commonwealth Office (FCO),told Poloff July 30. India is
worried about China's role throughout the region, including
Nepal, fearing "encirclement" by China, Kernohan said. HMG
views democratic India as a positive actor for advancing
regional stability. End Summary.


2. (C/NF) Neil Kernohan, Head of the India, Nepal and Bhutan
Team, South Asia Group (SAG),at the FCO, told Poloff July 30
that HMG is pleased to be "still dealing" with the Congress
Party and Prime Minister Singh. He characterized the
Congress Party's success in this spring's elections as a
"vote for stability, intelligence, common sense," and an
international outlook, qualities he attributed to Singh.
Kernohan said that India seemed to be "on a roll" of positive
momentum over the past few years. Britain and India share a
solid, "significant relationship," and Indian President Patil
will visit the UK October 27-29, Kernohan said.

India - Pakistan
--------------


3. (C/NF) Kernohan said that HMG is "cautiously optimistic"
about the progress of India's relationship with Pakistan. He
suggested that the U.S. and HMG should "compare notes" this
fall to determine "how serious the Indians actually are in
relaxing their rhetoric toward Pakistan." According to
Kernohan, the recent relaxation on the Indian side reflects a
"real window of opportunity" to improve India-Pakistan
relations. He suggested that James Downer, First Secretary
at the British Embassy in Washington, would welcome
discussion of India-Pakistan relations with U.S. counterparts
at the State Department this fall. Kernohan observed that
there is a degree of skepticism within Indian leadership
circles toward HMG's role in the region, with some suspecting
the UK of being "too close" to Pakistan. Kernohan stated
that HMG is working to convince Pakistan's leadership that
Pakistan's existential threat stems not from India but from
internal terrorists.

India - Nepal
--------------


4. (C/NF) India "tends to treat Nepal as India's backyard,"
Kernohan averred. He said that India's leadership was
"suspicious" of the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) and suspected
that "China's hand was behind the drafting" of the July 23
UNSC extension of the UNMIN mandate. India is worried about
China's role throughout the region, including Nepal, fearing
"encirclement" by China. HMG will continue to monitor
India's role in Nepal. Kernohan said that political progress
in Nepal is moving forward at a "snail's pace."

Comment
--------------


5. (C/NF) Kernohan's praise for PM Singh echoes Foreign
Minister Miliband's appreciation earlier this year for
Singh's restraint in the wake of the Mumbai bombings (Ref).
HMG views democratic India as a positive actor for advancing
regional stability -- a point that Kernohan stressed several
times in his discussion with Poloff. End Comment.

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