SUDAN: TROIKA RE-INVIGORATED AT MAY 28 LONDON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001300 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019 TAGS: PREL EAID KDEM SU UK SUBJECT: SUDAN: TROIKA RE-INVIGORATED AT MAY 28 LONDON MEETING REF: STATE 55655 Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Troika partners welcomed Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration's robust efforts to support implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), noted the important role the Troika had and could play in encouraging CPA implementation through support and political pressure, and valued the role the Assessment and Evaluation Committee (AEC) was playing. In a presentation on its assistance to the Governments of National Unity (GNU) and South Sudan (GoSS),the Norwegian delegation noted the South's dependence on oil revenue, capacity gap in its own financial management, and its belief that it is entitled to more than 50 percent of the post-2011 oil wealth. The Norwegian delegation said a decision on post-2011 oil wealth-sharing is more critical than decisions related to the actual management of the oil. It was agreed that the Troika will continue to share information, coordinate policy, and provide political support to the CPA, without being too bothered by the formalities of the Troika's overall status as a support mechanism. End summary. ¶2. (C) The following individuals attended the May 28 Troika meeting in London: UK -- Michael O'Neill, Special Representative for Sudan, FCO/DFID Jane Haycock, Senior Advisor, Sudan Unit, FCO/DFID Tom Meek, North/South Team Leader, Sudan Unit, FCO/DFID Mark Richardson, South Sudan Desk Officer, Sudan Unit, FCO/DFID Angus McKee, Sudan Research Analyst, FCO Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) -------------- Sir Derek Plumbly, Chair Norway -------------- Hans Jacob Frydenlund, Norwegian Envoy to the Horn of Africa Svein Sevje, Norwegian Ambassador to Sudan Endre Stiansen, Senior Advisor, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Anders Hannevik, Norwegian Oil Advisor (based in Sudan) US -- Scott Gration, Special Envoy Cameron Hudson, Director of Planning and Operations, Special Envoy's Office Africa Watcher, Embassy London Role of the Troika -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Frydenlund outlined the historical role of the Troika as the principle institution that had pushed forward the negotiations between the North and South that resulted in the CPA, as IGAD was unable to bring the discussions to final agreement. He said the partners' shared analysis, trust, and financial capital were the strength of the institution. ¶4. (SBU) It was agreed that the USG's June 23 CPA Forum (reftel A) was a good mechanism to increase political engagement and ratchet up pressure on CPA implementation, and the Troika would continue to be a good forum to push the CPA forward through behind-the-scenes coordination and private political dialogue. Troika partners agreed that the formalities of the Troika's status were less important than consistent and coordinated efforts for progress. Role of the AEC -------------- ¶5. (SBU) AEC Chair Sir Derek Plumbly welcomed the renewed focus on the CPA, saying that the AEC "day-to-day operations of monitoring CPA implementation" are going well but have suffered from a lack of political support from the international community. Plumby said renewed USG efforts "have lifted the clouds on CPA implementation." He characterized the relations between the North and South as "horrible," though noted that wealth-sharing was working "OK." He said that sequencing on CPA implementation is a critical issue, especially give the current stalemate over the referendum law. He suggested one way the international community could take forward CPA implementation is through LONDON 00001300 002 OF 002 focusing efforts on the recommendations of the AEC's mid-term evaluation report released last year. He noted that resolution of Abyei remains an issue, and there remains a high probability that either side could reject the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) due to be released on/around July 22. Norway's Oil Work -------------- ¶6. (C) Hannevik outlined Norway's technical assistance to the GNU and GOSS, noting that the key objective has been promoting trust between the parties through information sharing. From his work, he has concluded that the GOSS does not have the capacity to manage its own finances, that the formula for post-2011 wealth-sharing is a key sticking point between the parties, and that the South believes it is entitled to more than 50 percent of oil earnings in the post-2011 period. He asserted that the most critical issues for the parties to decide are, firstly, percentages for sharing wealth and, secondly, the mechanism to manage the oil and revenues. Next Steps -------------- ¶7. (C) Welcoming SE Gration's approach to support for the CPA, Troika partners agreed to consult on policy and strategy in the run up to the June 23 CPA Forum in Washington, DC through information exchange and policy discussions without the need for more formalized mechanisms. ¶8. (U) This cable was cleared by SE Gration's office. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom LeBaron