SUDAN: TROIKA RE-INVIGORATED AT MAY 28 LONDON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001300

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019
TAGS: PREL EAID KDEM SU UK
SUBJECT: SUDAN: TROIKA RE-INVIGORATED AT MAY 28 LONDON
MEETING

REF: STATE 55655

Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary. Troika partners welcomed Special Envoy to
Sudan Scott Gration's robust efforts to support
implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),
noted the important role the Troika had and could play in
encouraging CPA implementation through support and political
pressure, and valued the role the Assessment and Evaluation
Committee (AEC) was playing. In a presentation on its
assistance to the Governments of National Unity (GNU) and
South Sudan (GoSS),the Norwegian delegation noted the
South's dependence on oil revenue, capacity gap in its own
financial management, and its belief that it is entitled to
more than 50 percent of the post-2011 oil wealth. The
Norwegian delegation said a decision on post-2011 oil
wealth-sharing is more critical than decisions related to the
actual management of the oil. It was agreed that the Troika
will continue to share information, coordinate policy, and
provide political support to the CPA, without being too
bothered by the formalities of the Troika's overall status as
a support mechanism. End summary.


2. (C) The following individuals attended the May 28 Troika
meeting in London:

UK
--
Michael O'Neill, Special Representative for Sudan, FCO/DFID
Jane Haycock, Senior Advisor, Sudan Unit, FCO/DFID
Tom Meek, North/South Team Leader, Sudan Unit, FCO/DFID
Mark Richardson, South Sudan Desk Officer, Sudan Unit,
FCO/DFID
Angus McKee, Sudan Research Analyst, FCO

Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC)
--------------
Sir Derek Plumbly, Chair

Norway
--------------
Hans Jacob Frydenlund, Norwegian Envoy to the Horn of Africa
Svein Sevje, Norwegian Ambassador to Sudan
Endre Stiansen, Senior Advisor, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs
Anders Hannevik, Norwegian Oil Advisor (based in Sudan)

US
--
Scott Gration, Special Envoy
Cameron Hudson, Director of Planning and Operations, Special
Envoy's Office
Africa Watcher, Embassy London

Role of the Troika
--------------


3. (SBU) Frydenlund outlined the historical role of the
Troika as the principle institution that had pushed forward
the negotiations between the North and South that resulted in
the CPA, as IGAD was unable to bring the discussions to final
agreement. He said the partners' shared analysis, trust, and
financial capital were the strength of the institution.


4. (SBU) It was agreed that the USG's June 23 CPA Forum
(reftel A) was a good mechanism to increase political
engagement and ratchet up pressure on CPA implementation, and
the Troika would continue to be a good forum to push the CPA
forward through behind-the-scenes coordination and private
political dialogue. Troika partners agreed that the
formalities of the Troika's status were less important than
consistent and coordinated efforts for progress.

Role of the AEC
--------------


5. (SBU) AEC Chair Sir Derek Plumbly welcomed the renewed
focus on the CPA, saying that the AEC "day-to-day operations
of monitoring CPA implementation" are going well but have
suffered from a lack of political support from the
international community. Plumby said renewed USG efforts
"have lifted the clouds on CPA implementation." He
characterized the relations between the North and South as
"horrible," though noted that wealth-sharing was working
"OK." He said that sequencing on CPA implementation is a
critical issue, especially give the current stalemate over
the referendum law. He suggested one way the international
community could take forward CPA implementation is through

LONDON 00001300 002 OF 002


focusing efforts on the recommendations of the AEC's mid-term
evaluation report released last year. He noted that
resolution of Abyei remains an issue, and there remains a
high probability that either side could reject the ruling of
the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) due to be released
on/around July 22.

Norway's Oil Work
--------------


6. (C) Hannevik outlined Norway's technical assistance to the
GNU and GOSS, noting that the key objective has been
promoting trust between the parties through information
sharing. From his work, he has concluded that the GOSS does
not have the capacity to manage its own finances, that the
formula for post-2011 wealth-sharing is a key sticking point
between the parties, and that the South believes it is
entitled to more than 50 percent of oil earnings in the
post-2011 period. He asserted that the most critical issues
for the parties to decide are, firstly, percentages for
sharing wealth and, secondly, the mechanism to manage the oil
and revenues.

Next Steps
--------------


7. (C) Welcoming SE Gration's approach to support for the
CPA, Troika partners agreed to consult on policy and strategy
in the run up to the June 23 CPA Forum in Washington, DC
through information exchange and policy discussions without
the need for more formalized mechanisms.


8. (U) This cable was cleared by SE Gration's office.

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