SOMALIA: FORMER PM NUR ADDE ON POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001067 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO NAIROBI FOR SOMALIA UNIT E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID SO UK SUBJECT: SOMALIA: FORMER PM NUR ADDE ON POLITICAL RECONCILIATION, FEDERALISM, DIASPORA ENGAGEMENT REF: A. NAIROBI 810 - SHEIKH HASSAN'S RETURN ¶B. NAIROBI 707 - AWEYS IN SUDAN ¶C. DOHA 238 ¶D. STATE 44005 Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. "There is momentum behind the reconciliation process," former Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein ("Nur Adde") and TFG Member of Parliament Mustafa Duhulow (Hawiye/Murosade and ex TFG Minister under Nur Adde) told Poloff May 6 in London. The best way forward for the reconciliation process in Somalia is for Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to reach out to opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys to prevent Aweys from becoming a spoiler and/or allying temporarily with al-Shabaab, Nur Adde said. He suggested the USG and the international community should encourage Sheikh Sharif to engage with Aweys. On regional dynamics, Nur Adde said Eritrea continues to play an unhelpful role and is currently supporting Aweys and that Qatar has not supported Sheikh Sharif because of bad Qatar-Ethiopia relations. Nur Adde agreed building Somali security capacity was critical, with AMISOM having an important role while the security forces establish themselves. He cautioned that it was critical to maintain the balance of the federal system in the TFG Charter for the long-term stability of the political process, and the international community should put pressure on the TFG to implement it. He also suggested that the TFG should take the lead on anti-piracy initiatives, rather than autonomous regions like Puntland. Nur Adde has begun engaging Somalia's Diaspora community and could play a helpful role in shoring up Diaspora support for the TFG. End summary. ¶2. (C) The best way forward for the reconciliation process in Somalia is for Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to reach out to opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, according to former Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein ("Nur Adde") and TFG Member of Parliament Mustafa Duhulow (Hawiye/Murosade and ex TFG Minister under Nur Adde). Nur Adde explained to Poloff May 6 during a visit to London that Aweys, who recently returned to Mogadishu (reftel A),could be a spoiler in the political process, but a window of opportunity currently exists because Aweys' clan in South Somalia is tired of fighting and he does not yet have support from al-Shabaab. Nur Adde said the international community should put pressure on Sheikh Sharif "to accommodate" Aweys through power-sharing or other similar political mechanisms. ¶3. (C) Nur Adde said Aweys is trying to garner al-Shabaab's support, with their mutual interest being to remove Sheikh Sharif, whom Nur Adde said Aweys is "jealous of." Nur Adde said any Aweys-Shabaab alliance would be "temporary" at best because their goals and clan alliances are "contradictory." ¶4. (C) Nur Adde said that Aweys' terrorist listing was unhelpful, as it created another obstacle to reconciliation. He also said that al-Shabaab's terrorist listing was becoming increasing problematic from a public perception standpoint because the UN had begun making deals with al-Shabaab. In the people's eyes, the UN dealing-making means that al-Shabaab is merely a warlord militia, rather than a hardened terrorist organization. Nur Adde reiterated that the USG and the international community should encourage Sheikh Sharif to engage with Aweys to find a way forward for reconciliation. Regional Dynamics -------------- ¶5. (C) Nur Adde said Aweys returned to Somalia with Eritrea's support. Aweys had gone to Sudan to enlist support from Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (reftel B),but Aweys "was not successful." Nur Adde said Eritrea continued to play a destabilizing role in Somalia and suggested that Qatar also LONDON 00001067 002 OF 002 played a negative role, citing the Qatari Government's lack of support for Sheikh Sharif at the recent Arab League Summit (reftel C). In Nur Adde's calculation, Qatar took this position because the Ethiopian Government supports Sheikh Sharif, and Qatar and Ethiopia have very poor relations. Qatar, Nur Adde said, was also trying to bolster its position within the Arab League vis-a-vis Egypt and other more traditional regional Arab players. Supporting the TFG, Supporting Security -------------- ¶6. (C) Nur Adde agreed improving security was critical to moving the reconciliation process forward and that AMISOM had an important role to play while the Somali security forces are set up and trained (reftel D). He argued that not/not giving the TFG enough support would play into the opposition movements' hands and likely lead to further radicalization. Increasing security capacity, creating jobs, and combating piracy are the primary areas where the TFG could use support, according to Nur Adde. A Caution on Federalism -------------- ¶7. (C) Nur Adde cautioned that it was critical to maintain the balance of the federal system in the TFG Charter for the long-term stability of the political process, and the international community should put pressure on the TFG to implement it. He also suggested that the TFG should take the lead on anti-piracy initiatives, rather than autonomous regions like Puntland. Too much support for any one region, he said, would weaken individual regions support for federalism, and thus the long-term prospects for peace. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Nur Adde continues to have a strong grasp on the domestic political situation in Somalia and the regional dynamics. He has, however, turned some attention to engaging the Diaspora community and has trips planned to Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Canada. Continuing to engage Nur Adde could help ensure that Somalia's diverse Diaspora communities play a productive role in supporting reconciliation and the TFG. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom TOKOLA