SLOVENIA: PM PAHOR'S 1ST 100 DAYS DEFINED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000084 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: PM PAHOR'S 1ST 100 DAYS DEFINED BY RECESSION, BORDER DISPUTE REF: A. LJUBLJANA 60 ¶B. BELGRADE 254 Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, reasons 1.4(b,d) Summary: Economy and Slovenia-Croatia Front and Center -------------- -------------- ¶1. (C) Nearly all observers cite the economic crisis as the biggest task facing the government during its first 100 days in office, with the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute a close second. Pahor himself told us he agrees with this assessment, and that he is "basically satisfied." On the domestic political front, members of Pahor's own coalition and the opposition alike have shown a willingness to play hardball, testing Pahor's resolve to practice the "politics of consensus," which he advocated during the campaign. As for public opinion, 68 percent of the respondents in a recent poll rated the government's performance as "good," "very good" or "excellent." Post sees the Pahor-led coalition as fairly stable, with Pahor focusing on tactical governance rather than pursuing a broader strategic agenda. Pahor has made extensive personal efforts to reach out to us, and Post's working relationships with the new government have been excellent. End Summary. On the European Stage -------------- ¶2. (C) From the outset, the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute has taken a disproportionate amount of Pahor's time and energy. Beginning in December, Pahor took a strong line on Croatia's EU accession negotiations, insisting that Slovenia could not accept maps and documents that, in his view, prejudged the border, even as European leaders and diplomats worried about Slovenia's blocking EU enlargement because of a bilateral dispute. Relations with Croatia threatened to become a full blown crisis when Slovenia's ratification of Croatia's NATO accession was thrown into doubt by a nationalist fringe party's efforts to force a referendum on the issue. While receiving little credit at home for his efforts, Pahor demonstrated strong leadership once it became clear the stakes were so high. He reached out to all members of parliament, opposition leaders, other key decision-makers, and the public, explaining why ratification was in Slovenia's interest and to ensure that the ratification process concluded in time for Croatia to join ahead of the April NATO summit. The PM has also moved on to the European stage, meeting with other EU leaders such as Brown, Merkel and Sarkozy, while still focusing on the western Balkans. Initiatives in 1st 100 Days -------------- ¶3. (U) While the government, especially the economy and finance ministries, has focused on enacting a series of measures in response to the global economic crisis (ref A), other ministries have also begun significant initiatives. The defense ministry is undertaking a Strategic Review process in a move to better prepare the Slovene armed forces for NATO and other external missions while focusing resources on areas in which Slovenia can develop niche capabilities. Foreign Minister Zbogar has already traveled throughout the western Balkans to emphasize Slovenia's support for NATO and EU membership for the other former Yugoslav republics. Pahor's first official bilateral visit was to Belgrade to renew Slovenia's relationship with Serbia after a falling out over Slovenia's recognition of Kosovo (ref B). ¶4. (U) During the fall 2008 campaign, current Interior Minister and LDS party leader Katerina Kresal had pledged to resolve the issue of the "Erased," a long-standing human rights issue involving some 25,000 Slovenian residents who were administratively stripped of citizenship in the aftermath of the break-up of Yugoslavia. In the government's first 100 days, Kresal has begun tackling the issue by implementing a 2003 constitutional court decision that the previous government had resisted. Consequently opposition party SDS filed an interpellation motion in parliament against Kresal in late February; however, coalition members have shown unified support for Kresal. While there are concerns about possible compensations claims, especially during the economic crisis, the government remains committed to solving the Erased issue. Putting "Politics of Consensus" into Practice -------------- ¶5. (SBU) PM Pahor has stayed with his pledge to work with the opposition through "the politics of consensus" on some key LJUBLJANA 00000084 002 OF 002 issues. In late January, Parliament scheduled a vote on ratification of Croatia's NATO accession. The PM accommodated the opposition party SDS, which used this vote as leverage to get a vote on closing the 2007 budget accounts in a way that showed a budget surplus for that year (when SDS was in power). The vice president of one of Pahor's junior coalition partners published an open letter in a leading newspaper complaining about Pahor's weakness, prompting former PM Jansa to comment that Pahor was "getting lessons like a schoolboy." Some commentators, however, saw Pahor's decision as a savvy choice in favor of a long-term interest (NATO enlargement) over a short-term political dustup with the opposition. Pahor's February agreement with Jansa on the "Partnership for Development," a coordinated proposal for economic growth policies, represented another choice of consensus over confrontation, even though this partnership also drew criticism from coalition partner Zares. ¶6. (U) Pahor's emphasis on consensus took a hit in the initial stages. During the coalition negotiations following the September 21 elections, Pahor sought to make "expertise" a more important factor than political connections in selecting ministers and other advisors. While the selections of an academic as defense minister and a career diplomat as foreign minister went over well, Pahor's pick of former foreign minister Dimitrij Rupel to be a special foreign policy advisor sparked an outcry from some coalition members. Slavko Ziherl, LDS party vice president and state secretary for the ministry of health, resigned over the appointment, and a Facebook page dedicated to ousting Rupel rapidly tallied over 14,000 registrants. (Note: Rupel "resigned" from the PM's cabinet around March 20, following reports of misuse of government letterhead. End Note.) Relations with Media -------------- ¶7. (C) Noting that the press had been skeptical of his campaign promise to maintain a new standard of freedom of the press, Pahor told CDA he had kept his word and allowed the press to do its work without interference. He mentioned the recent demonstrations in other European countries and the collapse of governments due to frustrations about government "interference" in the economy and press. People "are in the streets" elsewhere, he said, but not here in Slovenia, and he credited people having a free outlet in the media for that. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Pahor's consensual style of politics is not the norm in Slovenia, where winning parties typically press their advantage ruthlessly. As a result, Pahor's tendency to seek compromise is often interpreted as weakness. He was at his best during the negotiations to form a coalition, when he faced down former Defense Minister Erjavec, who publicly threatened to bolt the coalition if he did not receive another power ministry. When Pahor stood up to him, Erjavec backed down, accepted the position of Environment Minister and quietly forgot his earlier threats. ¶9. (C) We have been told that "the last person to talk to the PM has the most influence on his decision-making." Commentators also remark that Pahor's strength is not strategic thinking but nimble tactical maneuvering. Post's relationship with Pahor is excellent; we have had more face time with him in 3 months than with Jansa in the prior 18. He has made a point of consulting with us in advance -- either in person or through staff -- regarding his policy toward Croatia's NATO accession, and he seems genuinely committed to partnership with the U.S. FREDEN