SLOVENIA TO COMPLETE CROATIA'S NATO RATIFICATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000062 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019 TAGS: PREL NATO MARR EUN PGOV HR SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA TO COMPLETE CROATIA'S NATO RATIFICATION BY MARCH 28 REF: LJUBLJANA 59 Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) There is progress on turning off the referendum initiative on Croatia's accession to NATO before March 26. With the announcement March 9 by Marjan Podobnik's Institute 25 June of its non-entrance into the signature campaign, it has become clear that the non-parliamentary Party of the Slovene Nation (SSN) will not be able to collect the 40,000 signatures necessary for a referendum. If SSN continues to refuse to withdraw the referendum initiative before the 35-day period expires, Slovenia has developed a workable plan to shorten the seven day follow-up period to allow for Slovenia to complete its ratification process by March 28. The government is confident that it will deposit its instrument of ratification by March 30. The government is also looking ahead and is starting to consider changes to its Law on Referendum and Public Initiatives so as to avoid a repeat experience. End Summary. Contingency Plan in Place -------------- ¶2. (C) President of the National Assembly Pavel Gantar assured CDA on March 10 that, should SSN not withdraw before March 26, the government had a plan to shorten the seven day follow-up period (reftel) and complete the ratification process by March 28. Gantar explained that it was impossible for SSN, which had only collected about 1,000 signatures so far, to be able to submit 40,000 verified signatures. Marko Makovec, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor, told CDA March 9 that, according to constitutional law experts, the law on Referendum and Public Initiative provides for seven days so the initiator can collect signatures from all Slovenian embassies, hospitals, and other non-centralized locales. The GOS legal experts' interpretation would be that if there were no way the number of signatures from those sources could change the result, then the Parliament could move ahead. The GOS is checking the number of registered voters in Embassies, hospitals and elsewhere so it would have the calculation to show there would not be any possibility the initiator could reach the 40,000 number. Gantar stressed that after such a determination, the request for an initiative would become "non-existent" and thus SSN would not ;be legally-mandated to have seven days to submit the signatures, ¶3. (C) Gantar stated that he had already discussed the process with President Turk. Gantar then outlined Slovenia's timeline: - On March 27, Gantar would determine that the SSN campaign was non-existent and complete the Parliamentary procedure; President Turk would sign the Law on Ratification; and then the government would publish it immediately in the electronic version of the Official Gazette. - On March 28, the law would come into effect, President Turk would sign the Ratification Document and it would be sent electronically to the Department. - On March 30, Slovenia would deposit its original instrument of ratification in Washington. Gantar stressed that he was confident of this scenario, but undertook to alert us should any problem arise that would put the plan's success in jeopardy. He stated that failure "would be the most important foreign policy mistake Slovenia made since its independence." A Lone Hold-out For the Referendum -------------- ¶4. (C) There is also renewed hope that SSN, the initiators of the referendum, will withdraw the initiative before March 26. In his March 9 press conference, and in radio and TV spots, Marjan Podobnik and Institute 25 June not only announced that they would not participate in the signature campaign, but urged SSN to end it. With Podobnik's move, SSN's already very slim chance of getting 40,000 signatures vanished. An SSN representative publicly admitted on March 9 that so far SSN had collected only about 1,000 signatures. Podobnik told us that he had had several conversations with SSN leaders over the weekend and almost all of them had agreed to withdraw the referendum. The only hold-out was the current, ad interim president, who still insisted on continuing. Podobnik was optimistic that within a week even he would cave. Makovec told CDA that PM Pahor had already tried to call the SSN holdout, but his cell phone was turned off. We are sure the PM will keep trying - he is more than ready to move on to other issues. (Makovec said that during the PM's March 6 trip to Belgrade, Pahor even called Podobnik on this issue.) Thinking About Changes to the Referendum Law -------------- ¶5. (C) Both Gantar and Makovec said that the government was starting to consider changes to the Law on Referendum and Public Initiatives. Makovec admitted that Slovenia could not afford another similar "terrible experience." He noted that "democracy should not be misused." Both stressed that the government would maintain democratic principles; however, the law should not allow a handful of people to tie up the legislative process. Gantar explained that there would be other important issues, citing the economic crisis, when the government might need to act on an urgent basis and could not have its hands tied. He suggested that, among other changes, the government might increase the number of signatures needed to initiate a referendum from the current requirement of 2,500. He also questioned whether there should be a quorum of people who actually go to vote in order for a referendum to be binding. An agreement regarding the Croatia-Slovenia border could also be the next cause for a referendum; Podobnik has already laid down a marker threatening similar action if the government does not meet his group's demands. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The Croatia NATO referendum experience has been scarring for the new Government of Borut Pahor. It sucked up the PM's time and attention during his critical first 100 days in office, trying to avert a crisis that would harm Slovenia's international reputation. We called upon Pahor to exercise leadership to ensure Croatia is at the 60th Anniversary Summit, and he has done so. We believe that a pull-aside with PM Pahor at the NATO Summit or the US-EU Summit would advance the process of reconciliation between Slovenian and Croatia and with it our long-term goal of integrating the Western Balkans into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. FREDEN